EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 3) - page 30
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Here comes Romanov:
That is, it seems to be vigilant for inflation, but here the policy is appropriate, and even very correct... No, they just got stale and decided to knock down the stops. The euro will deflate back. I'm not selling it, I sold it to the pound... Heh... No, what kind of a battle eagle is Trichet? He was a master of fog, like Greenspan...
Your will but the market is wishful thinking, say Trichet is a hawk. But...
Poor Romanov, why the hell would he sell "the pound"?))
Here are the approximate targets
It was after his chronicles that I wrote to you... I'm telling you it's a laughing matter... Others are predicting a fall to their selves altogether...
no need to gloat. They may be right. forex is a delicate thing.
no need to gloat. They may be right. forex is a delicate thing.
Right about what? That it's a flat on the day or that there are a dozen grammatical errors in a sentence with a dozen words?)
Or this: "It's my second day saying that the north made a move or rather a deceptive manoeuvre before going south is my opinion..."
No way a deceptive maneuver at 1100pts)))
there is no need to gloat. They may be right. forex is a subtle thing.
Not at all. I never gloat... On the contrary, I pity those who, for whatever reason, place the wrong positions and then think not how the market will move, but how it will be profitable for them to go and that is their forecasting error...
And the humour is that they do not want to see their wrong thinking.
Poor Romanov, why the hell would he "sell to the pound"?))
I'm not defending him of course, but why not sell?
Guys!!! Understand. If you see a trend, it does not mean that it cannot reverse.
Not at all. I never gloat... On the contrary, I pity those who, for whatever reason, place the wrong positions and then think not how the market will move but how it will benefit them and that is their mistake in forecasting...
Forecasting is not a worthwhile endeavour. This is the business of psychics. Just do not laugh at them. You can get into such a mess yourself.
ECB to keep interest rate at 1% at Thursday meeting - forecast
03.02.2011 09:50
TheEuropean Central Bank (ECB) will keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1 percent a year at its next meeting on Thursday, experts polled by Bloomberg forecast.
However, many economists say that the ECB, whose rate is at its lowest ever since 1999, is becoming increasingly difficult to decide on extending the timing of anti-crisis support through the provision of cheap liquidity in the face of an unexpected acceleration in inflation.
It became known on Wednesday that the rate of producer price growth in the eurozone accelerated to a two-year high in December.
The rate of consumer price growth in the eurozone also accelerated in January, as indicated by preliminary data from the EU Statistical Office released on Monday.
January's consumer price growth data thus underlined the danger of rising inflationary pressures in the eurozone's most advanced economies, such as Germany and France, while key rates need to be kept at record lows to overcome recession and stagnation in peripheral countries.
ECB head Jean-Claude Trichet said last week that the European Central Bank is ready to "do whatever is necessary" to maintain price stability in the region.
According to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the ECB should expect the first increase in the benchmark interest rate only at the end of the fourth quarter of 2011. At the same time, some experts believe that in the case of a favourable development the rate hike could start as early as June this year. The worst-case scenario envisages the rate remaining at its current level until the end of the first quarter of 2012.
The last time the ECB changed the rate was on 7 May 2009 - then it was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, to 1% per year.
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ECB leaves policy rate at 1%
03.02.2011 16:06
The European Central Bank (ECB) left its policy rate unchanged at 1 percent, the bank said in a statement on Thursday. This was in line with analysts' forecasts.
After today's decision, the ECB's benchmark rate has been unchanged at 1 per cent for more than a year. Analysts do not expect the ECB's monetary policy to change until at least early 2011. Inflation in the eurozone is steadily below the central bank's 2% target allowing it to continue its soft monetary policy.
market reaction 03.02.2011:
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TOKYO, 03.02.2011 /Dow Jones/. The euro edged slightly lower against the U.S. dollar in Asian trading on Thursday after the euro rose to a four-month high on Wednesday, prompting traders to lock in profits ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. This key event for the market will take place later in the global trading day.
The dollar got some support from the American stock market, trading on which closed with a slight increase in indexes, although oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel on Thursday amid continuing concerns about the Middle East, traders said. They said this allowed the US currency to find support against the Japanese yen at 81.60.
As of 05.50 GMT, the dollar/yen pair was trading at 81.86-90, the euro/dollar pair at 1.3856-63, the euro/yen pair at 113.46-51, the British pound/dollar pair at 1.6315-19 and the dollar/Swiss franc pair at 0.9242-47.
In anticipation of guidance on the direction of the euro, market participants' attention is focused on the ECB meeting, which will result in a rate decision, as well as the press conference of the bank's president Jean-Claude Trichet, scheduled for 13.30 GMT. At the same time, many traders are refraining from making any aggressive bets on what the outcome of the meeting will be.
The market has factored into quotations the likelihood that there will be a shift in the ECB's stance towards a penchant for tightening monetary policy, said Yuji Saito, head of currency at Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank in Tokyo. "If Mr Trichet's rhetoric becomes /hawkish/, the euro is likely to maintain a strong tone given heightened expectations of an early rate hike in Europe," he adds. However, Saito notes the risk of a decline in the euro if the ECB shows less inclination to tighten policy than expected.
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////03.03.2011 16:41:01 *European central bank left the refinancing rate at 1.0%
market reaction 03.03.2011:
I'm not defending it of course, but why not sell it?
Guys!!! Understand. Just because you see a trend doesn't mean it can't turn around.
You should also understand that for a reversal, for selling, you need some kind of basis: a reversal pattern, a bearish candlestick pattern, etc. And it is not about the trend and its direction, but about the fact that people see black, but stubbornly call it white.