Strategic foresight systems - page 31

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I don't have time to do everything I have planned, it will probably take at least a week. So far, a "rough" forecast for EURUSD:

  • current trend: positive, lasts 29 days from 02.15
  • 29.7% probability of a trend change and it is gaining momentum
  • with a probability of 78.3 TP of the current trend lies no higher than the level 1.43

General conclusion: in 1-3 days EURUSD is likely to come to the end and change direction and negative increments will prevail.

 
Farnsworth:

I don't have time to do everything I have planned, it will probably take at least a week. So far, a "rough" forecast for EURUSD:

  • current trend: positive, lasts 29 days from 02.15
  • 29.7% probability of a trend change and it is gaining momentum
  • with a probability of 78.3 TP of the current trend lies no higher than the level 1.43

The general conclusion is that in 1-3 days EURUSD will probably come to the end and change direction, and negative increments will prevail.

Sorry, negative incre ments, is this a decline in the pair's exchange rate?

 
ZetM:

Sorry, negative increments, is that a decline in the pair's exchange rate?

Good to see.

yep, a decline.

 
Farnsworth:

Mm-hmm, decline.

Got it. Thank you.

 

Sergei, hi.

You used to work with Hearst, did you manage to find asymptotically fast solutions for the indicator? Well, the ones that require only one or two bars for reliable estimation (just kidding:-).

I'm the one who read Yusuf in the new thread. Impressed... The PhD is completely out of his mind.

 

Seryoga, you owe me a morning tea and a sandwich, which went bad (the tea spilled and the sandwich fell on the floor) after reading this:

Ты одно время Херстом плотно занимался, скажи, тебе удалось найти ассимптотически быстрые решения для показателя? Ну те, что для достоверной оценки требуют всего одно двух баров

you have to give me some kind of advance warning.

That was me reading Yusuf in the new thread. Impressed...

which new one is that? "new forex". I put it off until Friday, you can't read it on Monday!!!!

This PhD is completely out of his mind.

I had many professors I knew, one of them, for example, persisted in calling a reflector a reflector, considered them fundamentally different things and punished anyone who thought otherwise.

 

Both in jest and in earnest, i.e. while waiting for a possible reversal of EURUSD. An idea came to me in the form of the trickiest one, so I decided to share it(Alexey may be interested, the idea is so delirious that it may work :o)

Assuming that 95% of traders/TCs lose... then

Prerequisite:

  • There should be a lot of TSs, 100-300 pieces
  • TS must generate goals of at least TP, and better yet SL
  • Some statistical independence of TP "forecasts" is desirable, but it is difficult
  • Statistical similarity of duration and number of deals (condition under question)

The logic of decision making

  • All TPs are started in a cycle
  • We obtain an array with forecast TP. Theoretically, these TP will be "concentrated" anywhere, but not at the extremums of the quote process (but in the areas of "low return")
  • Assumption - future real extrema (TP) will lie at some distance from "clusters" of predicted TP
  • It is possible that some NS may be able to find the location of the target TP in the cluster

There is a danger that all TP forecasts will be evenly "smeared" in some range, in this case nothing will work. In this case, you can try one TS, but parametric

 

Sergei!

Are you delusional?

 
Svinozavr:

Sereg!

Are you delirious?

this requires an expanded consciousness :o)))) Or are you saying that all 95% of traders guess where TP is 95% of the time? And which one of us is delusional? Delusional, Peter, it's on the price trajectory to draw curves and straight lines - that's the real delusion. Or have you secretly set up your own market?

PS: Why did you become a hedgehog? How unusual and very suspicious!

 
Farnsworth:

PS: Why did you become a hedgehog? That's unusual and very suspicious!

Assuming that the pig eats everything and the hedgehog pricks himself, the hedgehog is more appropriate:-)))
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