First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 9
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it takes about 15-20 minutes to calculate on a single bar.
>> That's strong. Where does that time come from? You need a whole cluster for trading :)
2 Vita, joo:
So you both think that's not trader's wisdom (which I naively think it is myself), but a meaningless tautology. Right?
Lately very interesting ideas come to my mind, when I try to understand such trivialities and tautologies... The main and first question is: how do they come from such a life, these tautologies?
2 С-4:
You cannot predict the long-term price movement based on the price. You need other data. We would be much more effective at predicting future price movement based on Not price indicators..
Reasonable point. I would not say "not price" but "not only price". There are non-price indicators, and even the most unexpected ones.
How do you reconcile the two thoughts in bold? On the one hand it sounds like there is no profit in trends. On the other, there are profits. In trends? In some other movements from level to level?
>> what language you have to say the highlighted thing to make such a conclusion by sounds? :о) Just kidding. Understand correctly, you will never in your life catch the "trend" shown by the C-4 channel as an example. The reason is very simple and hides not in you but in the fact that it does not exist as a class. Only masters such as good old friend Alex can see it, dancing with tambourine over the unfolded wave model and smoking incense. If 1000 Alex will take a course and start predicting by wave patterns, then surely one or three of them will succeed and they will earn (key word, and this word will distort our common sense) - the majority will say there are trends! Let's look for them! Look at these guys, they know how to trend! :о)
There are no such trends. But there are trends, which may be defined by strong connections between samples (even subconsciously). After all, if it goes in one direction, it is certainly not random. It is useless and simply stupid to look for the reason. In my model there is a notion of "stable structure", which gives me a confident prediction and construction of development model in my notation, though very locally. Neutron, with his pictures, seems to have explained very clearly that everything is relative. And I say that.
The ability to see a trend characterizes the "greed" of a particular person, not the actual market situation (kind of a joke :o)
In short, there are no trends in the commonly used sense, trend / flat is the same in a statistical sense at all scales, you cannot differentiate one from the other. You may make profit only with a good forecast, statistical parameters of which more or less correspond to the real situation. Look at my model - in fact I only forecast the average. I have an extension of the system, I make estimation of ZZ, but it is in work yet.
PS: I made a correction in my post regarding the terminology in the picture.
That's a lot. Where does it take so much time? You need the whole cluster for trading :)
This is MathCAD, and the code in it is not very optimally written by me. Also, the matrices are huge, and the method is computationally demanding.
After all, if it goes in one direction, it certainly does not go by chance. To look for reason is useless and simply stupid.
Well, you don't have to look for it. The real reason is the news, but I don't analyse its content. I see that there is a decent jump, and then I look at the various indicators, and where it has led.
Well, you don't need to look for it. The real reason is the news, but I don't analyse its content. I see that there's a decent kick and then I look at different indictors to see where it's going.
And I don't analyse it. News is a mysterious thing.
Well, you don't need to look for it. The real reason is the news, but I don't analyse its content. I see that there's a decent kick, and then I look at different indictors to see where it took me.
Crowd behaviour. Not news.
Crowd behaviour. Not the news.
Who cares in the long run whether the crowd moves it or the news. There is a kick and I don't care what causes it. What matters to me is that it's strong enough for me to consider it the start of a sustained directional movement.
Who cares in the end whether the crowd moves it or the news. There is a kick and I don't care what causes it. What matters to me is that it is strong enough for me to consider it the start of a directional movement.
As a primary source, yes. As the fluff that broke the bridge, yes. But not every piece of news gives birth to something. Why not every, that's what crowd behaviour is. INCREDIBLE. Well so far no one has been able to forgive it with a credible outcome. An example of this is the elections. It seems everyone knows everything - but in fact there is a bummer. That is why Crowd Behaviour. >> THAT'S THE REASON.
I haven't killed anything for a long time now, as I've already earned my cheap "credibility" from past kills. Besides, I am not professionally connected with the word "probability", as I am nota professionalmathematician, but only Mathemat. One more thing: my intentions have been made clear from the beginning by the caption to my nickname (Sceptic Philozoff) and the text on my profile.
OK, let's be very specific (maximum branch is obviously intended for those who actually trade, and not theorizing): Suppose my trade TF is H1 and I play it. I only play trends, so I have to look for them on H1 to take a bite out of the market. I do not care about the trend on the weeks or on the minutes, because they are out of my game horizon. Now do you understand what I'm asking about, how I would practically look for trends on the watch? No, no, I'm not looking for diamond answers for myself here - my own questions are good enough for me. The thread was created solely to see what people think about it from afar.
2 Neutron: Sergey, your interpretation of the trend as a piece of a higher order flat is very curious, but probably impractical.
All right, provocative and humorous. But the saying isn't a joke at all, is it? It has all the hallmarks of a real hard truth like "Eat your breakfast, share your lunch with a friend, and give your dinner to your enemy": it's very simple in its wording, but very few people really understand and apply it.
There is no forum without fans of interpreting the price as a random value, and I'm glad that you personally are not a supporter of this idea, which is only harmful in the sense that it leads to a dead end.
As far as I am concerned, you can't tell if there is a trend on H1 or not without looking at M15 and H4 (D1). The reversal we have detected on H1 may be on the flat boundary on H4, and on M15 we may see that the sidewall we have on H1 is broken and the trend is developing. The ideal is to play the trend on H1 along the trend on H4. This is a standard fractal idea. They are similar on each TF, but can be matched, mismatched or partially matched.
Um... I'll share.
There is nothing but M1, or even ticks. M1 is the chart, the rest is for the pleasure of viewing it. :)