First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 15
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Well, we started with trends and now we are making predictions about America's future:)
Going back to the original topic, what is a trend.
A trend is a market condition that has the following attributes:
1. Displacement of mathematical expectation of increase in quotations.
2. Presence of a local memory. In other words, the presence of a local deterministic component, the presence of dependence of subsequent quotes on previous ones.
3. Hearst index greater than 0.5. Or the fractal dimension greater than 1.5. By the way, using these indices we can distinguish (at least in theory) a series of real quotes from the series created with a random number generator.
Source: Peters' book "Chaos and order in capital markets".
The summary conclusions from the same book are rather trivial and not very reassuring (as I have stated them and somewhat crudely):
1. If there is a trend, it is more likely to continue.
2. it is impossible to determine the emergence of a trend at an early stage by analyzing the price trend.
3. It is impossible to predict where and when the trend will end by analyzing the price trend.
4. The profit in the market is obtained not because of the opportunity to predict where the quotes will go, but because of the infinite variance of the quotes increment.
There are some more subtle conclusions. If you want to discuss this topic please contact me personally or read the primary source.)
Here we want subtle conclusions.
Well, that's all we want ...
Well, we started with trends and now we are making predictions about America's future:)
Going back to the original topic, what is a trend.
A trend is a market condition that has the following attributes:
1. Displacement of mathematical expectation of increase in quotations.
2. Presence of a local memory. In other words, the presence of a local deterministic component, the presence of dependence of subsequent quotes on previous ones.
3. Hearst index greater than 0.5. Or the fractal dimension greater than 1.5. By the way, using these indices we can distinguish (at least in theory) a series of real quotes from the series created with a random number generator.
Source: Peters' book "Chaos and order in capital markets".
The summary conclusions from the same book are rather trivial and not very reassuring (as I have stated them and somewhat crudely):
1. If there is a trend, it is more likely to continue.
2. it is impossible to determine the emergence of a trend at an early stage by analyzing the price trend.
3. It is impossible to predict where and when the trend will end by analyzing the price trend.
4. The profit in the market is obtained not because of the opportunity to predict where the quotes will go, but because of the infinite variance of the quotes increment.
I have some more subtle conclusions, if you want to discuss this topic - write in the personal area, or read the primary source :)
I have got confused where and what I have written, so I will repeat it. Forget about the trend - we should know the trend reversal, or to be more precise - not the reversal but its confirmation. When the trend follows some indicator (the classic Machka), it is too late to enter the position, and if the reversal confirmation signal comes, it is high time. By the way, there is no TP problem.
Here, one PAMM came across - good trend work, you could say perfect as far as it goes.
Верно!!!! Абсолютно верно!!! Уверен, что не найдется идиота, который будет утверждать, что все время зарабатывает. Или такой идиот есть? :о)
'Those who trade CFDs, i ... The great Guru who is discussed in this thread does exactly that - he trades without a single losing month (I suspect he does not have a single losing trade either).
The turning points and therefore the emergence of new trends should be sought where there is no willing buyers or sellers. A simple example of present time, see an interesting situation with sugar:
The blue line shows that all the sugar traders have already bought sugar from the sugar makers (the red line). Consequently, there are no more people willing to buy sugar. The price will not go higher if there are no new bidders. Everyone who wanted to sell has sold and everyone who wanted to buy has bought. This is the place to catch the downtrend, which is not yet on the price chart. In addition, the price of sugar is near the all-time highs, and the price has drawn the culmination pennant pattern in the last month. I find this type of analysis the most promising as it uses technical and fundamental non-price tools (traders' transaction reports) together.
'Those who trade CFDs, i ... The great Guru who is discussed in this thread does exactly that - he trades without a single losing month (I suspect he does not have a single losing trade either).
The turning points and therefore the emergence of new trends should be sought where there is no willing buyers or sellers. A simple example of present days, see an interesting situation with sugar:
The blue line shows that all the commodity funds trading sugar have already been bought from those who produce this sugar (red line). Consequently, there is no one willing to buy this sugar. The price will not go higher if there are no new bidders. Everyone who wanted to sell has sold and everyone who wanted to buy has bought. This is the place to catch the downtrend, which is not yet on the price chart. In addition, the price of sugar is near the all-time highs, and the price has drawn the climax pennant pattern in the last month. This type of analysis is the most perspective because it uses technical and fundamental non-price tools (traders' reports) together.
These are low liquid markets. In highly liquid markets there is never a break in trading, not even for a minute. In the highly liquid markets it is a decline in turnover, which we are not aware of at all on Forex.
'Those who trade CFDs, i ... The Great Guru who is discussed in this thread does exactly that, he trades without a single losing month (I suspect he also does not have a single losing trade).
Are you jealous of the guru?
'Тем, кто торгует CFD, i ... и хочет научится выбирать инструменты ' Великий Гуру, которого обсуждают в этой ветке как раз тем и занимается что торгует не имеея ни одного убыточного месяца (подозреваю что он так же не имеет ни одной убыточной сделки).
Переломные моменты а следовательно и зарождение новых трендов надо искать там, где желающих купить или продать больш не находится. Простой пример из наших дней, посмотрите какая интересная ситуация сложилась с сахаром:
Синия линия показывает что все товарные фонды, торгующие сахаром уже затарелись у тех, кто этот сахар производит (красная линия). Следовательно, больше не осталось желающих этот сахар покупать. Цене не пройти выше, если не будет новых участников торгов. Все кто хотел - продали, а все кто хотел - купили. Это и есть место где можно ловить нисходящий тренд, которого еще нет на ценовом графики. К тому же сейчас цена на сахар вблизи исторических максимумов, а цена в послений месяц нарисовала кульминационную модель вымпел. Такой вид анализа считаю наиболее перспективным, так как в нем используются технические и фундаментальные неценовые инструменты (отчеты по сделкам трейдеров) вместе.
Even if there are no bidders, the price might go up if the dollar falls.