First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 7
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Motivate, there was a man recently jailed for trying to steal know-how, it was widely discussed in the forum.
It was about the futility of universally creating a unified theory in this forum for one reason, that everyone is keeping the know-how secret. I doubted with my comment that forum members are keeping know-how secret, not doctrinaire know-how.
The example of the attempt is from a different scale, but the probability doesn't change. For every few foundations that stand up, there is an army of defunct people who once promoted their know-how.
I meant that your councillor has strong balls
I don't think I've seen any balls...)))) though hz.....))) but that's not advertising...))))
Didn't seem to see any balls...)))) though hz.....))) but that's not advertising...))))
You turned the topic (trend) into a joke and I followed it up.
That's how trends appear ...
You turned the topic (trend) into a joke and I followed it up.
That's how trends are made ...
Two questions remain -
1. identify the beginning of the trend.
2. identify the end of the trend.
Both of these questions are equally important, since late entry into the trend, as well as a late exit, may not only reduce profits but also incur losses, which may adversely affect the deposit. Therefore determining the start and end of a trend is a prediction, which has its own probability, as is customary here - the flip of a coin. Heads - trend starts, tails - trend ends.....))))) Has anyone tried trading this way? ))))
Two questions remain -
1. identify the beginning of the trend.
2. identify the end of the trend.
Both of these questions are equally important, since late trend entry, as well as late exit, may not only reduce profits but also incur losses, which may adversely affect the deposit. Therefore determining the start and end of a trend is a prediction, which has its own probability, as is customary here - the flip of a coin. Heads - trend starts, tails - trend ends.....))))) Has anyone tried trading this way? ))))
I have tried applying the DARTS system. Hit black - buoy, white - sell. Works in principle with a reasonable MM and two swaps.
I haven't killed anything for a long time now, because I have already earned my cheap "authority" from past kills. Also, I am not professionally associated with the word 'probability' as I am not a professional mathematician, just Mathemat. One more thing: my intentions have been made clear from the beginning by the caption to my nickname (Sceptic Philozoff) and the text on my profile.
I think that your formulation of the trend question is not correct, because there are many trends at the same timeov. First of all, you have to decide on the length of the trend you want to work with: 100, 500, 2000 pips.
OK, let's be very specific (maximum branch is obviously intended for those who actually trade, and not theorizing): Suppose my trade TF is H1 and I play it. I only play trends, so I have to look for them on H1 to take a bite out of the market. I do not care about trends on weeks or minutes, because they are out of my game horizon. Now do you understand what I'm asking about, how I would practically look for trends on the watch? No, no, I'm not looking for diamond answers for myself here - my own questions are good enough for me. This thread was created purely to see from afar who thinks about it.
2 Neutron: Sergey, your interpretation of a trend as a higher-order piece of a flat is very curious, but probably impractical.
Of course, the subject brought up by Mathemat-om is provocative and more of a joke.
All right, provocative and humorous. But the saying isn't a joke at all, is it? It has all the hallmarks of a real hard truth, like "Eat your breakfast, share your lunch, and give your dinner to your enemy": it's extremely simple in wording, but few people really understand and apply it.
2 Neutron: Sergey, your interpretation of the trend as a higher order piece of the flat is very curious, but probably impractical.
Not probably, but definitely impractical, as, indeed, any other interpretation of the trend. Only one is practical - is there profit in it? In what everyone calls a trend for themselves. What a group of people can agree on and call a trend. What any blind person can see - if they buy here and sell here, they would rise pretty high. Something from which almost everyone who looks at the chart would like to take a bite. Just a little piece of it...
In general, in terms of profits, there are no trends. From the point of view of drawing lines on charts, searching for turning points, writing dissertations or just chattering, there are plenty of trends!
Among other things, formal logic plays a cruel joke on people. One of its theorems: every statement concerning an empty set is true. Any near-scientific interpretation about a trend is true. The scientific interpretation will begin only when such a clear definition of the trend will be given, that it will be possible to falsify it in the sense of profit. As a matter of fact, this sometimes happens, someone tries to give another comprehensive definition, when it immediately becomes clear that there is no profit in this trend. And the new definition in the sense of profit is falsified, even though we can draw and measure anything according to this definition, but not profit. That is why there is still no operative definition of a trend in the sense of profit, but only in any other sense. As you can see, the current situation with trends fits very well with the simple assumption that there are no trends in the sense of profit. There is not a single case refuting this hypothesis. Neither is there a single case confirming the hypothesis that there are trends in terms of profits. Isn't it that simple? Although, psychologists argue that it is easier to suffer than to turn around to face your ignorance and say, "I've been looking for trends for you."
I'll be brief, I'm coming from a fishing trip. :) Pardon the language. Hell, there's no better place in Russia.
ew-
If you're dealt a card and only aces come in, will you think it's going to stay that way for a couple of hours, or will you predict that it won't! :)
Vita, thank you.
"In terms of profit, trends don't exist": well, what about the very experienced traders who coined the saying? For them a trend exists and they even make profit from it...
2 S: You've gone too far with the aces. They have different statistics, not like the market rows.