First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 2
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It seems to me that the terms "trend" and "flat" were invented by man to explain slow and fast price movements (e.g., like lightning and Zeus throwing it in anger).
That's why we have problems with finding the beginning of a trend or a flat.
I personally see a trend as a constant change in price, at regular intervals... If you want to determine the movement by measuring the price at a certain time, you may do so).
Mathemat писал(а) >>.........."Если выполняется некое комплексное условие Х, то мы можем предварительно назвать его началом тренда. Условие Х действительно должно быть достаточно сильным для того, чтобы котировки получили серьезный пинок и все-таки выскочили из болота флэта - причем устойчиво и в течение определенного продолжительного времени". Вот это и есть тренд, который продолжился.....
- What lies between the kicks is a trend. What remains is to learn to see the kicks. And this is the most difficult thing in our business.
brici писал(а) >>
- What lies between the kicks is a trend. What remains is to learn to see the kicks. And this is the most difficult thing in our business.
Because the kicks are controlled by certain people, maybe that's why.)
The words "trend started" or continued create the illusion of predictability. imha can only say that the trend was such that it is likely to have some technical implications for some time. The trend itself is not difficult to determine post facto based on the basics of the chart - price and time. For example, if the price changes more than some threshold during some time it will be a kick. Then we filter the pips and select the necessary one. For example, you have to choose the kick on Thursdays or on the American session, or simultaneous kicks for several currencies and so on. All the rest is the selection of the entry point, position management and exit. All this is based on post-trend technical consequences. :)
>> 'cause kicks are controlled by certain people, maybe that's why?)
- If in all terminals of the world, quotes change simultaneously, it means that someone needs it.
>> So it is necessary. )
It is possible to speak with a sufficient degree of conditionality about a trend or a flat on a given TF. But if we move from, say, four o'clock at flat to five minutes, we will see trends. Or go up to Weekly.
It is possible to speak with a sufficient degree of conditionality about a trend or a flat on a given TF. But if we move from, say, four o'clock at flat to five minutes, we will see trends. Or go up to weekly.
But the question is how do we understand the trend...
A good trend can be considered as a price movement in one direction on all TFs + observed movement on similar pairs, can it be so?
Look at the figure to the left. These are three flat periods with different characteristic time periods t1, t2 and t3. Let's sum them up and get an analog of a price series with trend market features at the same characteristic times and without obvious signs of a flat:
The conclusion is the following: there is no such a thing as a "trend" in the markets!
Everything is a superposition of differently-periodic flotsam.
Yes absolutely, but the question of the author is how we understand the concept of a trend...
A good trend may be considered a price movement in one direction on all TFs + observable movement on similar pairs, could it be?
There is no such thing on everyone. The weekly chart may show a fall, the daily chart may show a bounce (rise), the hourly chart may show a fall (bounce within the bounce), etc. We should always decide what we consider to be the major TF to determine the global trend (within the framework of the working TF) and not go higher than that - it will only confuse us. And we should not go much lower to find the exact entrance either, IMHO.
Look at the figure to the left. These are three flattens with different characteristic periods t1, t2 and t3. Let's sum them up and get an analogue of a price series with the characteristics of a trend market at the same characteristic times:
There is one conclusion: there is no such thing as a "trend" in the markets!
Everything is a superposition of different-period fluxes.
I've been thinking the same thing, the most interesting thing is that you can see the trend when it's already gone).