First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 83
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It is a property of the human brain to look for (and find!) orderliness even where there is none. On the first page I gave a picture, you can clearly see the trends, but in fact they are not there.
And Mashka would have found them easily =)
Essentially I have the following to say: before talking about randomness (and if yes, in what timeframe and timeframe) of the market
1) to identify events
2) To prove that these events are random (not correlated)
This is difficult, that is why it is easier to say without proof. I've seen only a few quantitative studies of candlestick randomness, but except for candlestick mechanics (by the way, what is the probability of candlestick patterns) nobody determines the market by candlesticks, people use OTHER and DIFFERENT "figures" (events) whose probability they prefer to assume, rather than to count it.
So as not to make a lot of shallow topics, I'll ask here.
Imagine the following situation:
Identified a move down between the Fibo levels of 100 and 0.
Entered the Sell at 40% of this movement.
The question:
Is there any way to determine from the area highlighted by the rectangle that the trend has reversed, or only a stop at 100 will help?
So as not to make a lot of shallow topics, I'll ask here.
Imagine the following situation:
Identified a downward movement between the Fibo levels of 100 and 0.
Entered the Sell at 40% of this movement.
Question:
Can we somehow determine by the area defined by the rectangle that the trend has reversed or will only a stop at 100 be helpful?
So far I have thought of the following:
1) I set the correction level for entry (38-40% as a convention) - level_corr
2) I set the depth of the maximum correction from the certain movement (65-70% as a convention).
3) Entry to sell (in this case): price rises above level_corr and then falls below it.
4) Close sell (assuming a reversal): When you open a sell position, the price rises above the maximum retracement level.
It is not certain that it will work, I will check.
On what basis is this decision made? Fibo cannot predict anything, they are just levels. Therefore, your further actions are important. What are they?
Normally, the 1st position to sell should not be earlier than after these very 100% (it will be a wave), i.e. somewhere at the very top of the pattern.
On what basis is this decision made? Fibo can't predict anything, it's just levels. Therefore, what matters is your next steps. What are they?
Normally, the 1st sell position should not be earlier than in this very 100% (it will be a wave), i.e. somewhere at the very top of the pattern.
Are you suggesting to enter a sell position in the area marked with an oval?
The blue section upwards is the 100% range of the detected movement
Or did I misunderstand you?
Fibo is here for clarity (linking the real behaviour of the correction). There is no prediction. Or rather, further downward movement was assumed, based on price movement between 100 and 0 levels (sloping red segment). But it was not confirmed and there was a reversal.
38-40% - it is assumed that the correction should be smaller than the move.
saw your picture late.
Unfortunately, as soon as the price crossed the 100 level for the first time (approximately) - an upward movement was detected. The context was to buy.
Unfortunately, as soon as the price crossed the 100 level for the first time (approximately) - an upward movement was detected. The context was to buy.
If you have lost 60%, then you must at least work them out with further actions, and these can vary.
So as not to make a lot of shallow topics, I'll ask here.
Imagine the following situation:
Identified a downward movement between the Fibo levels of 100 and 0.
Entered the Sell at 40% of this movement.
Question:
Can we use the area indicated by the rectangle to determine if the trend has reversed, or is a stop at 100 the only way to do it?
Yes, but the beginning of the rectangle will be the end of the downtrend and the end will be the price reversal to the 61.8% level.
I have read it all-very interesting.I want to suggest a more specific topic for development: there are 50 weekly candlesticks-need to determine by 8 o'clock, say.
I think the colour of the next weekly candlestick just direction: up or down without any numerical targets I think for real trading this is
is enough.