First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 79

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HideYourRichess >>:

Ааа, понятно, речь о обобщённом процессе Орштейна-Уленбека. Ну что же, можно и так подходить. Пожалуй, даже, есть в этом какой то физический смысл, для рынка.

It's about him too. But more broadly. The OU process implies a normal distribution of the innovation process. This does not exist on the market, unfortunately.
But mean-reverting with any other distribution works just as well. Its expectation still tends to a constant, tends quite quickly. Its variance tends to the constant even faster.

 
It is clear that the DT process in its "classical" form is of little use. But, at a quick glance, there is a suspicion that the constant is "floating". This is one. Two - on forex the OU, even taking into account upgrades, is worse than on stocks. Don't know, I haven't looked at the market from an OU perspective - so I've got it all in the form of fantasy so far.
 
we need a third cow.
there will be a herd!
;)
 
avatara >>:
нужна третья корова.
будет стадо!
;)

Go ahead and start.

There are candidates for the third cow: "Volumes confirm movement", "Divergence indicates an impending reversal", etc...

Good luck! ;)

 
Yes, yes, let's talk about divergence, avatara.
 
What about divergence to speak of? A slowdown, a consolidation. With all the incomprehension inherent to the same trend. Maybe there will be a trend break, maybe it will go further. I DON'T KNOW.
All this is water in a pail. It may be here, or separately about the divots. All the same - they will say the same thing (and the same thing).
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And the same ones. ))))))))
 
Svinozavr >>:
А что о дивергенции говорить? Замедление темпа, консолидация. Со всеми своими присущими тому же тренду непонятками. Может будет перелом тренда, может дальше пойдет. ХЗ.
Все это - вода в ступе. Хоть здесь, хоть о диверах отдельно. Все равно - об одном и том же (и одно и то же) говорить будут.
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И одни и те же. ))))))))

Yeah, that's what I thought too.

 
Well, let's listen to people's understanding of the diver. Maybe something interesting will come up.
I don't have any opinion about it, because I haven't worked with it. Well, there are a couple of tricky questions, of course. The "hot" ones are about the following:
1. Why is the divert measured only between extrema, and not between arbitrary points? Is it a tribute to fashion or something justified?
2. Is there at least some attempt to justify such a specific "double extremum" as a divergence?
If it is used purely for empirical reasons - like, look, there is a divergence and then a reversal - it is not very interesting. It is possible to give counterexamples.
 
joo >>:

Ага, мне тоже так подумалось.

That's what they tell us.

Like 60-80% of the time it's a signal to turn around.

It is written everywhere. But we need confirmation - allegedly...

;)

And there seems to be a new trend:


 
Mathemat >>:
Ну послушаем людей, как они дивер понимают. Может, и будет что интересное.
Я никакого собственного мнения о ней не имею, ибо особо и не работал с ней. Ну есть пара каверзных вопросов, конечно. Из "горячих" - примерно такие:
1. Почему дивер измеряется только между экстремумами, а не между произвольными точками? Это дань моде или что-то обоснованное?
2. Существуют ли какие-то хотя бы попытки обоснования такого специфичного "двойного экстремума" как дивер?
Если ее пользуют чисто по эмпирическим причинам, - мол, ну вот смотри, тут дивер и тут же разворот, - то это не очень интересно. Можно ж ведь привести и контрпримеры.

Alexey, well, everything is obvious here. The scale just differs - here the double extremum and just the deceleration at higher timeframes. It's easy to check. It's clear anyway.

What is there to justify? Exactly the same rationale as in the case of any indicator deceleration. The price increments at the second extremum are shorter. It's a question of scale.

There is no empirical mysticism here. It is enough to see how the indicator is calculated and what its divergence with the price shows is clear.

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