Price movements can be predicted ! - page 19
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
I realised I was wrong. OK, visionary powers. Not a word about the TS, observe.
Information for reflection.
It looks like the Euro, descending from 1.6038 (15.07.08), completed the correction by forming a triple zigzag W X Y X Z,
and 1.2329 (28.10.08) is the low, below which the Euro does not want to fall.
Some books say that triple zigzag is a sure sign of the end of correction.
Let's keep a close eye on the franc as a leading indicator.
This is just a lyrical digression from the main theme.
My 5 kopecks.
EURUSD, Daily
Note that on 11.09.08 at 1.3900 the downtrend met resistance, corrected to 1.4850 and was passed by a black candle with a long body on 02.10.08.
On 09 and 14.10.08 at 1.3800 there was a resistance to a possible up-trend.
Next: A classic descending triangle with resistance at 1.2300-1.2400. Fibo targets for a possible up-trend at former resistance levels.
Looks like Wednesday-Thursday we are expecting to overcome 1.3300 with an exit by Monday at 1.3900.
My 5 kopecks.
EURUSD, Daily
Note that on 11.09.08 at 1.3900 the downtrend met resistance, corrected to 1.4850 and was passed by a black candle with a long body on 02.10.08.
On 09 and 14.10.08 at 1.3800 there was a resistance to a possible up-trend.
Next: A classic descending triangle with resistance at 1.2300-1.2400. Fibo targets for a possible up-trend at former resistance levels.
It looks like on Wednesday-Thursday we are waiting for the price to overcome 1.3300 and go up to 1.3900 on Monday.
An interesting conclusion, I can only continue, that if the price reaches 1.3600, the price may fluctuate within the range of 1.3400-1.3650, and after that - as may be.
1.3900 is not very realistic to take quickly, especially in three days. Although a sharp and rapid weakening of the dollar in the medium term is possible.
My 5 kopecks.
EURUSD, Daily
Note that on 11.09.08 at 1.3900 the downtrend met resistance, corrected to 1.4850 and was passed by a black candle with a long body on 02.10.08.
On 09 and 14.10.08 at 1.3800 there was a resistance to a possible up-trend.
Next: A classic descending triangle with resistance at 1.2300-1.2400. Fibo targets for a possible up-trend at former resistance levels.
It looks like on Wednesday-Thursday we are expecting to overcome 1.3300 with the exit at 1.3900 by Monday.
I have this picture:
The third zigzag (which forms the end of the correction which started on 15.07.08 at 1.6038) is marked in red.
There are still doubts that this red zigzag is really a zigzag. I will refrain from such specific predictions like yours for the time being.
I will wait for the signs, confirming that the observed upward movement really is an impulse.
If we consider the franc as a leading indicator, most likely, the first downward impulse in the franc will be a confirmation of the reversal.
While the franc, also in contemplation...
Picking up the slack
forecast
Sart 24.11.2008 02:24
"100%" % forecast for next week:
1. the NZDUSD is confidently looking to go down. By Friday the target of 0.4900 will be reached. Now the price is 0.5380.
2. USDJPY is confidently wanting to go down. By Friday the target 92.00 will be reached. The price is now at 96.00.
During the day, when the market warms up, forecasts for other instruments are possible.
Friday has come.
NZDUSD .
The result is shown in the picture below. The target has not been reached (((
The control points for this period minimum 0.5283 maximum 0.5585
NZDUSD 0.5380-0.4900=0.0480 predicted movement downwards 480 points.
It went down 0.5380-0.5283=0.0097 i.e. 380 pips underflow
move against forecast 0.5585-0.5380=0.0205 i.e. 205 points.
Bottom line.
The direction of the main movement was predicted wrong
The maximum value of movement for the period, is not accurate (only 200 points)
The speed of growth (fall) too.
USDJPY
It has moved 140 pips in both directions. Conclusions are almost the same.
Z.I. But it is possible to predict !!!
Разбор полетов
прогноз
Наступила пятница
NZDUSD
Результат представлен на рисунке ниже. Цель не достигнута (((
Контрольные точки за этот период минимум 0.5283 максимум 0.5585
NZDUSD 0.5380-0.4900=0.0480 прогнозируемое движение в низ 480 пунктов.
Прошли в низ 0.5380-0.5283=0.0097 т.е. недолет на 380 пунктов
Ход против прогноза 0.5585-0.5380=0.0205 т.е. 205 пунктов.
Итог.
Направление главного движения спрогнозировано неправильно
Максимальная величина движения за период, не точна (только 200 пунктов)
Скорость роста (падения) тоже.
USDJPY
Сходили в обе стороны на 140 пунктов. Выводы почти теже.
З.Ы. но прогнозировать можно !!!
"Take it easy," the captain said, "it's not evening yet" !
I was referring to the end of trading when I said Friday.
Reporting on the situation.
On the New Zealander three very large nested cycles are still steadily and confidently looking down.
Then strictly in order followed by three consecutive small cycles upwards.
The strength of three major cycles down will undoubtedly break the backbone of small cycles up.
In Japanese, two large nested cycles are still looking down steadily and surely.
Then come the minor cycles, the direction of which is constantly changing - just a mess.
Undoubtedly two cycles down will still take their toll, there is still time.
I personally remain confident.
Thanks for your attention and thanks for the analytical work.
Regards - S.D.
I got confused by your post, it is kind of Thursday yet, even the beginning of Friday has not come yet.
I'm confused by your post, it's not even Thursday yet, it's not even the beginning of Friday.
That's how I understood the phrase "By Friday...".
Although I understand the forecast for the week very well. And it's supposed to close on Friday. I'm just following, sorry, of all the threads, this is the one I'm interested in. Just phrases and numbers have to be accurate and without ambiguity.
A prediction already contains an error in itself. And if approached strictly mathematically, a prediction without specifying its accuracy is meaningless. It is the probability of hitting a point which =0. It is possible to hit an area, it is improbable to hit a point.
I look forward to your debriefing and the next prediction.
Z.S. Everyone to bed. Right, I thought it was the end of Thursday and it's just arrived :-) Thank you. It's good to have a whole day to spare.
That's how I understood the phrase "By Friday...".
Although I am well aware of the forecast for the week. And it's supposed to close on Friday. I'm just following, sorry, of all the threads this is the one I'm interested in. Just phrases and numbers have to be accurate and not ambiguous.
A prediction already contains an error in itself. And if approached strictly mathematically, a prediction without specifying its accuracy is meaningless. It is the probability of hitting a point which =0. It is possible to hit an area, it is improbable to hit a point.
I look forward to your parsing of the flights and the next prediction.
For simplicity, roughly, for the first case, so to speak, you can take the difference:
( the spread in the predicted direction - the spread against the wool).
So far, nothing interesting in terms of forecasts under discussion.
Focused on franc-euro movements.
The Euro is in a fever - it's making unimaginable patterns.
The franc is ready to go up rather than down. In short, it's a real struggle.
Я
Z.O. Everyone to bed. Right, I thought Thursday was over but it's just arrived :-) Thank you. >> it's good to have a whole day left.
Two.
Corrected my previous post )
I wish S.D. had signed it a little earlier, my memory is already bad ((. And here it turns out the master, I thought differently. I'll pay three times more attention.
Two to the end of analysis, I have a day. I want to have everything sorted out by Friday and be at the exhibition.
If anyone plans to be there, I would be glad to meet and have a rest from profits.)