Crisis: Don't we care? - page 12
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sayfuji said it well that the good-natured traders of the state are pounding the pavement in this pati. But personally, I am offended by it. They are those who have VERY much money and who shake hands with the crisis, standing by and sucking the best of it. Bravo to them.
As for the financial markets, I do not think that one can continue trading without problems and nerves. The obvious things, comrades - the crisis is FINANCIAL and WORLD. Will certainly be reflected in the outcome of our ever "rosy" theme. Fortune telling, but if you want stability - curtail your activities in forex now! Unless you are the one who feels good in a crisis.
IT'S A SHAME. I have to put an indefinite limit on my business and fuck off with other things... but it's common sense and once again I'll stress the obvious facts. It is this obviousness that discounts all assumptions and "it seems to me that everything is not so bad ..." In addition, we live in our country, where not only miracles happen strange, but where brokers and banks can also collapse on the spot. So I avoid such surprises and I advise you all to do the same.
They say 40rub/dollar is coming soon and why lend to other countries in this situation?
Everybody sees that the dollar is cheap and they take big loans for a long term... and then they pay back in expensive dollars.)
Pondered the origins of the current crisis. And found them.
It is clear that at the heart of the current crisis is unlimited credit expansion. Mortgage lenders in the US have sub-prime. Private equity funds were buying up companies for tens of billions in loans secured by those same companies. Hedge funds arbitrated anything that moved with the kind of leverage that only forex parlours used to have. Even the U.S. government has gone to war on government debt of unimaginable proportions. Same in our country: oligarchs bought companies on credit, investment banks bought shares, citizens bought houses and cars. In short, cheap credit was to blame. When it disappeared, everything shrank, and the "musical chairs effect" began.
But where did the cheap credit come from? Who is to blame? It's Greenspan's fault. He drove the interest rate from 2000 to 2003 to zero.
But why did Greenspan do it? And he was fighting a recession, which was caused by the fall of Enron and the other companies that flunked reporting all through the 1990s.
So why were the companies cheating? And they were told by their boards and shareholders - look how the internet companies are floundering with no profits or sales at all! Give them more profit every quarter, buy their own stocks, and inflate the exchange rates! And the Internet companies barely collapsed...
Why did Internet companies go down? Because the whole economy was stagnating and the rates were cut for the occasion, the money went to the venture funds... When rates went up, the Internet companies went down, followed by the enrones, and 9-11 just finished it all off.
Why were rates low in the early 1990s? It was to fight the recession. There was a nasty long recession, nothing helped.
Where did the recession come from? The stock market crashed, and then all the companies were financed with junk bonds, which the raiders used to take over the companies - Michael Milken made them these bonds - and the money for these junk bonds was given by credit and savings associations, which were hardly ever regulated, so they just took whatever they wanted. And in general there was a boom in investment in the market.
Who made those junk bonds and savings and loan associations? Was it Milken? No, he just took advantage of the situation. Ronald Reagan deregulated the economy. Paul Volcker helped. He raised the interest rates to the sky, then lowered them, and the money flooded in.
Are Reagan and Volcker crazy? No, they were fighting the worst kind of stagflation. The reason for this stagflation was the Arab oil embargo and the sky rocketing oil prices at the time.
So why did the Arabs do this embargo? It was their way of fighting Israel, who had kicked their asses in 1967 and 1973.
So Israel made all this mess? No, the British are to blame, because they promised to move the Israelis into Palestine back in 1916, where the Israelis did not live for nearly two millennia, but the Arabs lived in their place for a year and a half. How could it not be when there are two neighbours in the same territory.
So, everything would have been fine, if the Jews would have stayed in Israel... But they didn't leave Israel on their own. And they were expelled by the Roman Emperor Hadrian in 132. Because the Jews started the Bar Kochba rebellion, and that rebellion started two millennia of diaspora.
So why didn't the Jews and Hadrian get along? Because Hadrian renamed Jerusalem in his honour and on the ruins of the second temple placed a statue of his young lover Antinoeus, whom he ordered to be worshipped as a god. He could not have crushed the religious feelings of the Jews better.
Why did Hadrian do such an astounding thing? Because his mood was disgusting. That very year he and Antinoy had gone to Egypt and Antinoy had drowned in the Nile. Hadrian deified him, ordered statues to be placed throughout the empire, even renamed the constellation of the Eagle after him. He took it out on the Jews!
So we've found the cause of the crisis. Antinoy! That's it, the whole world is falling apart - all because of one GAD!
Damn him to hell! He couldn't bathe more carefully! ( ALL FROM: http://vasi.net/2008/10/15/kto_vinovat_v_finansovom_krizise.html )
The cause of the 2008 crisis - many, many years before it
Was pondering the origins of the current crisis. And found them.
It is clear that at the heart of the current crisis is unlimited credit expansion. Mortgage lenders in the US have sub-prime. Private equity funds have been buying up companies for tens of billions in loans secured by those same companies. Hedge funds arbitrated anything that moved with the kind of leverage that only forex parlours used to have. Even the U.S. government has gone on a war of its own free will in national debt of unimaginable proportions. Same in our country: oligarchs bought companies on credit, investment banks bought shares, citizens bought houses and cars. In short, cheap credit was to blame. When it disappeared, everything shrank, and the "musical chairs effect" began.
But where did the cheap credit come from? Who is to blame? It's Greenspan's fault. He drove the interest rate from 2000 to 2003 to zero.
But why did Greenspan do it? And he was fighting a recession, which was caused by Enron and the other companies that flunked reporting all through the 1990s.
So why were the companies cheating? And they were told by their boards and shareholders - look how the internet companies are floundering with no profits or sales at all! Give them more profit every quarter, buy their own stocks, and inflate the exchange rates! And the Internet companies barely collapsed...
Why did Internet companies go down? Because the whole economy was stagnating and the rates were cut for the occasion, the money went to the venture funds... When interest rates went up, the Internet companies started going under, followed by the enrones. 9-11 just finished it all off.
Why were rates low in the early 1990s? It was to fight the recession. There was a nasty long recession, nothing helped.
Where did the recession come from? The stock market crashed, and then all the companies were financed with junk bonds, which the raiders used to take over the companies - Michael Milken made them these bonds - and the money for these junk bonds was given by credit and savings associations, which were hardly ever regulated, so they just took whatever they wanted. And in general there was a boom in investment in the market.
Who made those junk bonds and savings and loan associations? Was it Milken? No, he just took advantage of the situation. Ronald Reagan deregulated the economy. Paul Volcker helped. He raised the interest rates to the sky, then lowered them, and the money flooded in.
Are Reagan and Volcker crazy? No, they were fighting the worst kind of stagflation. The reason for this stagflation was the Arab oil embargo and the skyrocketing oil prices at the time.
So why did the Arabs do this embargo? It was their way of fighting Israel, who had kicked their asses in 1967 and 1973.
So Israel made all this mess? No, the British are to blame, because they promised to move the Israelis into Palestine back in 1916, where the Israelis did not live for nearly two millennia, but the Arabs lived in their place for a year and a half. How could it not be when there are two neighbours in the same territory.
So, everything would have been fine, if the Jews would have stayed in Israel... But they didn't leave Israel on their own. And they were expelled by the Roman Emperor Hadrian in 132. Because the Jews started the Bar Kochba rebellion, and that rebellion started two millennia of diaspora.
So why didn't the Jews and Hadrian get along? The reason is that Hadrian renamed Jerusalem in his honour and on the ruins of the second temple placed a statue of his young lover Antinoeus, whom he ordered to be worshipped as a god. He could not have crushed the religious feelings of the Jews better.
Why did Hadrian do such an astounding thing? Because his mood was disgusting. That very year he and Antinoy had gone to Egypt and Antinoy had drowned in the Nile. Hadrian deified him, ordered statues to be placed throughout the empire, even renamed the constellation of the Eagle after him. He took it out on the Jews!
So we've found the cause of the crisis. Antinoy! That's it, the whole world is falling apart - all because of one GAD!
Damn him to hell! He couldn't bathe more carefully! ( ALL FROM: http://vasi.net/2008/10/15/kto_vinovat_v_finansovom_krizise.html )
Best post ever!
Michael, thank you personally for your post. It was interesting to read.
I haven't read all the posts, maybe I missed something, but still answer the question of the topicstarter - do you yourself now work in forex?
I haven't read all the posts, maybe I missed something, so still answer the question of the topicstarter - are you currently working in forex yourself?
Not really! My balls are tight to be honest.
I used to trade on fx... forex is way different !
That's why I still have to get used to it and break my character.
... I have to wind up the business indefinitely and fuck off to do other things...
Hmm, if speculating in times of crisis is a dangerous business, then what do you do?
Hmm, if speculation in a crisis is dangerous, then what do you do?
Well, I'd do a little scalping ... i still can't figure out how to do one part of it in code :'(
in times of crisis, look for tools that you can invest in.... remember the law, money doesn't go anywhere, it just flows...
In times of crisis, the best rule of thumb is dough under the mattress. But about 40 a quid - yes, there is a rumour about that, and it could all be very soon.
In times of crisis, the best rule of thumb is dough under the mattress. But about 40 a quid - yes, there is a rumour about that, and it could be very fast.
I remember it cost more than 3. ( I do not remember exactly, I think it was 35 ( ) back in my youth.
If we were to collapse, which is entirely realistic (in theory because of huge corporate debt) we could drop even over 50 roubles...
but there are many, many factors to consider.
If investors will all go to the Fr, which is where the bulk of liquid money is concentrated... then we're screwed (65% sure) and our economy is doing fine... is going strong quietly. The budget was calculated and with oil at $20 per barrel, I don't think anything serious will happen. Except a good kick in the pants and in the face.
What we are seeing now is a crisis wiped out.
We must remember that : When everything is expensive, there are dissatisfied people and vice versa.