Crisis: Don't we care? - page 43
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but on the subject of this thread.
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More than 80 years ago the outstanding Russian economist N.D. Kondratiev put forward and theoretically justified the idea of existence of large - half a century (45-60 years) - economic cycles, during which a change of "the stock of main material goods" takes place, that is, the productive forces of the world community move to a new, higher level of their development. Kondratiev also described the mechanism of functioning of these cycles, which in economic science are called K-cycles (Kondratiev's cycles), by dividing them into two wave phases: upward and downward. The mechanism of capital accumulation, accumulation, concentration, dissipation and depreciation as a key factor in the development of capitalist (market) economy was the basis of these cycles, their internal self-movement and development, the transition from a downward wave to an upward one and again to an upward wave of the next cycle. N.D. Kondratiev was only able to study two and a half big cycles, interrupting his research at the rising wave of the third cycle.
He made his presentation at the beginning of the downward wave (in 1926), when it was simply impossible to determine the limits of this wave and what consequences it would lead to:
I. Upward wave: from the late 1780s/early 1790s to 1810-1817.
Downward wave: from 1810-1817 to 1844-1851
II. Rising wave: from 1844-1851 to 1870-1875.
Decreasing wave: from 1870-1875 to 1890-1896.
III. Upscaling wave: from 1890-1896 to 1914-1920.
(Periodicity from the point where N.D. Kondratiev stopped, looks like this:)
Decreasing wave of the third cycle: from 1914 to 1920. (in the USA it started a little later, in 1929) up to 1936-1940.
IV. Elevation wave: from 1936-1940 to 1966-1971.
Downward wave: from 1966-1971 to 1980-1985.
V. Upscale wave from 1980-1985 to 2000-2007
Decrease wave from 2000-2007 to, supposedly, 2015-2025 (forecast). (forecast).
VI. Upscale wave from 2015-2025 to 2035-2045 (forecast). (forecast)
Gentlemen traders
.... survivors of the crisis can only remember the referendum, exclusively the referendum and assign the referendum as the cause of the crisis.
!?
there is some doubt:
whether such a trader is able to trade breakeven)))
Let me summarise what I wanted to say without having to react to something I didn't even want to say).
1. Every self-respecting football fan knows better than the coach of his favourite team who should play in the starting lineup, who should be substituted and what tactics should have been used in the game, he usually knows this after the fact...
every trader will explain with 100% certainty how you should have traded... on the example of course history
Each person in any country knows better than politicians what should have been done in this or that political situation, and usually very emotionally and based on one long-lasting episode
Discussions about the history of our and not our homeland are of course interesting from the viewpoint of analysis, but it is impossible to hammer at spears over decisions that were made, we cannot even put ourselves in the shoes of political characters for lack of context, and to put an estimate you have to be at least a professional historian.
2. Trading is very similar to politics, imho, because of the number of risks, politics~economics, power~money, so you can easily draw parallels between politicians and traders, and on this forum it's a godsend
3. russia is behaving like a trader who has sunk two deposits, one in 900 years, the second in 70, on the third deposit he borrowed, put two buys on oil and gas and hit a tailwind, handed out the debts and went to the dog-eat-dog traders to teach them the fundamental analysis, while he walked, the market declined by 70%, the trader had to add the deposit every week, hoping that the market had reached the bottom, but this situation does not stop the trader to offer his services to the savings professionals, but only spurs
what would do to such a trader and his statements on this forum? or maybe someone has another analogy?
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I will stop here, I would like to finish my participation in this thread
Do you think that Russia has been running out of money for 900 years? :-)
It pains me to see your conclusion, I have the impression that you do not even know the history.
All these years there has been nothing but expansion and consolidation...
or do you think that for 900 years Russia only "lost its deposit" :-))
Or have they already rewritten the history books in Ukraine?
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I remember a case, at night in the morning, a bus was going to the recruiting office, the bus overturned and caught fire
the same night, the voice of America said: "the conscripts didn't want to join the army and set themselves on fire."
People were driving drunk - as is customary.
I knew a few people on that bus -
a few survived - some were burned alive
The bus was smoking and there was a can of alcohol on the floor.
You take a little fact and turn it around.
it's not the only outright lie...
everybody's a liar...
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but on the subject of the topic...
cyclicality...
it is...
but the decline usually always comes very sharply
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I remember there was an incident, one night in the morning, a bus was going to the recruiting station, the bus overturned and caught fire
the same night, the voice of America reported: "the draftees didn't want to join the army so they set themselves on fire."
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a huge role in shaping public opinion in the US itself, supporting the 1st war against Iraq, was played by TV footage of a 15 year old girl, introduced as a Kuwaiti refugee, saying that she saw first hand how Iraqi soldiers dragged 312 Kuwaiti babies out of a maternity ward, and laid them on a concrete floor to die. They wanted to take away the incubators where these babies were kept. This girl was interviewed hundreds of times on American TV before the war. I must admit that the girl played her role masterfully, she even cried, and many people in the audience wiped away their tears. The girl's name was withheld because she supposedly had family left in Kuwait and could be harmed by Hussein's soldiers. To get a sense of how important this video was, let's add that President George W. Bush used the story of the dead babies ten times in a forty-day propaganda campaign, an interview repeatedly appealed to by members of the US Senate when deciding whether to send troops into the Gulf. It was later proved that the girl shown on TV was not a refugee but the daughter of Kuwaiti ambassador to the USA, who used to live on the territory of the United States and so she could not have witnessed the occupation of Kuwait, moreover she is a member of royal family which rules Kuwait, all her relatives have huge wealth, estates abroad and live mostly in the USA and Western countries
Do you think Russia has been running down a deposit for 900 years? :-)
all these years there has only been an expansion and intensification...
Or do you think that for 900 years Russia has only been "losing deposits" :-))
Or has Ukraine already rewritten the history books?
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I remember there was a case
this is not the only case of blatant lies ...
Does the deposit come down gradually???) you surprise me, you can expand and increase for 895 years and then let it all go down in 5 years.
The USSR also spent not 70 years, but more likely the last 10 out of these 70 years. Before that the country went through many crises and survived, for which it was respected in the world
When the deposit goes down gradually, you can stop and change the strategy, the problem is that it usually grows in the beginning lulling the mind, the trader should know it, especially that he has a strategy tester, which in most cases sobering, and in politics everything is live.
i have not been to ukraine since the separation, so i do not know what textbooks are like there.
As for the information lie, I totally agree, information has become a means of manipulation, and it did not happen today, professionals do it consciously, while laypersons do it out of excessive emotions
I also know about the shooting of Polish officers ... and the NKVD's falsification ... that it was done by the Nazis
and not by their hands
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both of them lied, covered up inconvenient topics, and always...
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and sometimes it's very difficult to separate the lies from the truth
and the mind can be manipulated very skillfully
by mixing the facts... by rewriting the history books
as we are witnessing in our own time.
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does the deposit come down gradually???) you surprise me, you can expand and grow for 895 years and then you have to drain it all in 5 years.
The USSR brought down its reserves not in 70 years, but rather in the last 10 of these 70 years. Before that the country went through numerous crises and survived and was respected in the world
When the deposit goes down gradually, you have the opportunity to stop and change the strategy, the problem is that it usually grows in the beginning lulling the mind.
i have not been to ukraine since the separation, so i do not know what textbooks are like there.
As for lies about information, I completely agree, information has become a tool of manipulation, and it did not happen today, professionals do it consciously, while non-professionals do it out of excessive emotions
that's right... that's almost all there is to it... ( but 900 years ago you corrected your inaccuracy )
but for 900 years it's been going uphill.
perhaps the decline of the russian empire started after napoleon's campaign when russia took over the role of Europe's policeman, the same thing happened to the ussR - the role of hegemon of world socialism, the same thing is happening to the uS. in general, when a state starts solving conflicts of others without territorial benefit for itself, it is already a diagnosis