Scold :) Interested to hear your opinion regarding... - page 16
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95% of traders are losing and only 5% are gaining - a common story, which is easily accepted by the psyche and inspires hope.
What is the statistical advantage of traders and their TS? - Sure it can, but only statistical advantage of trader appears from the statistical advantage of his TS, which in its turn appears from the advantage of transactions results, which are carried out by some rules that may exploit some market property.
Roughly speaking, on a "smaller TF", say on the "hourly", the trader's TS supposedly has statistical advantage, and on a larger "daily TF", 95% to 5%, the statistical advantage is not only absent, it is absent at all ... - It's hard to understand what you mean, because it all depends on the set of trading rules and market properties being exploited.
Is having a statistical advantage inside of no statistical advantage at all a statistical advantage or not...?- you guys...
I gave a simple example with the pound and where to apply the statistic advantage - we are trying to exploit a market property - 5 pips price increase + spread from weekly bar opening price. I suppose there is nothing difficult in statistical analysis of this property to make sure that there is no statistical advantage. And you're going somewhere in the direction of generalizations...
Vita, I repeat my question.
I like your approach, I have a similar point of view.
It would be interesting to add to it something else about how to determine whether TC gives a statistical advantage and, if it does, how to calculate it.
We must distinguish the concepts here.
The presence of the statistical advantage distinguishes the final TS and some regularity characterizing the market, on which the TS is built.
Therefore the general task "Is there a statistical advantage in my TS?
1. determining the fact of existence and quantifying the statistical advantage of the initial statement. For example, the initial (to be checked) statement can be the following: after each undeflected (rollback not more than 5 points) movement of 100 points it rolls back by 20 points within an hour. To find it out, you need to make a simple program (without any trading functions) and run it on the whole history. For example, the result will be 57% of positive outcomes.
Determination of the fact of the presence and quantification of the statistical advantage of the TS, built on the exploitation of this pattern. To find it out, we need to develop a program with analytical and trading functions and run it on the history. If the result is positive, for example, the obtained profit is 56%, then one can calm down. If the result is less than 50% or slightly more (for example, 51% will not cover the spread), then look for more sophisticated methods of implementing program analytics.
There is a distinction to be made here.
Absolutely right. Otherwise, it's a bit of a mess, wrong generalisations, etc.
SK, respect, good answer, thanks.
ZS: and complained about being a bad explainer ;)
Vita, I'm not against statistics and stat advantage at all, I just asked questions and thank you for answering them :)
You're welcome,
It's all right, I know you don't mind. :)
Vita писал (а) >>
I understood that the signal is bad, in the sense that it is unlikely to make a profit, so we open at random to wait for a small profit or a big trend.
I understand that your signals predict how many pips the trend will "shoot" or something like that, right?
I am also familiar with the approach you are probably talking about - a system that predicts the beginnings and ends of trends. Nothing fixed, like follow the market, take the maximum from the trend. Any forum is full of beautiful examples and descriptions of how it should be done. Examples are given for segments with a clear trend, the stories do not provide statistics, but only magic formulas of following the market and the magic MM. As a rule, the tale ends when you ask for test results on a longer period of time, where everything was, not only a convenient trend.
This statement becomes true if the signals have a statistical advantage in their correctness, otherwise this claim of catching peaks (swings) is a banal manipulation, which an infinite number can create from morning till night. Do you have a statistical justification that your signals are pointing in the right direction?
Tell me what the system's stoploss is and it will become clear.
Stoploss is a large development period, but only to understand that the system can self control losses by reverse signals. With stop optimisation the profit does not fall very much with a stop of 150 pips, which is good for GBP/JPY. The signal is bad because it is set up to avoid false triggers when the trend is large (so as not to close earlier than necessary), therefore it may wobble on small ones. There is no overshoot.
The stop is a large development period, but only to understand that the system can control losses by reverse signals on its own. With stop optimisation the profits do not fall very much with a stop of 150 pips, which is good for GBP/JPY. The signal is bad because it is set up to avoid false triggers when the trend is large (so as not to close earlier than necessary), therefore it may wobble on small ones. There is no overshoot.
Pardon me, but even now I vaguely understand what the badness of the signal is. No irony, I'm trying to keep it simple. It's honed so it doesn't close sooner. Sounds good to me, not bad. I suppose you can't figure it out without the details.
Here's wondering, what is the ostensible reason for you to rely on your system? Do you have statistics on the "quality" of your signals? Or just optimization results?
95% of traders are losing and only 5% are earning
Have a look here. Very good statistic.
Have a look here. Very good statistics.
And do you "believe them" for a second ???
It seems to me this number is inversely proportional to the number of new customers