NATURAL INTELLIGENCE as the basis of a trading system - page 43
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Safety levels or distressed traders
For the sake of discussion, let us describe what happens to a trader who has made a profit above a personal security level, for the sake of brevity we will give the most gloomy state :
(Description)
...loses 3d perception, narrows his mental vision - he sees only the 0th and 1st bars (although he freely turns his head and turns his eyeballs without difficulty). Movement of the 0th bar causes strong emotions of perception and subsequent mental gumming.
Can't read the news - but slides his gaze around with an intelligent look.
Generally "looks in the book, sees the figure" - a fool for a fool.
The trader cannot distract himself from his work, has a huge idefix of desire, but does not think about the content of the work, as he cannot concentrate, has no possibility. The condition is close to drug addiction or obsession. (Elder has alcoholics).
According to traders' self-report about their condition the following:
- as in a dark sack, as in a top pressed down, head squeezed (it seems Dementors, H.Potter))),
-I was carried away on the wings (it's from the Bible, the temptation of Jesus in the desert).
When I asked why I did not stop working - I could not, I had to, they would not let me go (!).
Many traders start noticing their negative state when they lose their earned profit. It is obvious, it is trivial. It is the stress of negative emotions. However, we have noticed that the negative state itself starts at the moment when a certain percentage of profit goes up. That is, the negative state is provoked by a profit, but not, as it would seem, by a loss.
And what is especially important, and not at all trivial, is that the threshold value of profit significant to the psyche is not absolute, but this threshold is a percentage.
It was natural for everyday thinking to consider the absolute value of profit as a threshold of stress - to supposedly win much and get excited. So, the named trader has made 1000 c.u. and the roof is blown off. No, the mentioned roof of the named trader can be blown even at 100 c.u., if some percentage profit threshold is exceeded. The rough excess is followed by the observed long calendar period of actual inoperability as a trader. (In particular, we have observed an 8-years experience and a client account).
The overachieving trader is in distress. Both beginners and professionals suffer.
There are a lot of distressed traders like that. As far as our interest in trading robots is concerned, the crowd of exceeding distressed traders excites:
1. great interest in Expert Advisors trading on 0-1 bars (see the description above). For example, in the ... "Question to experienced programmers" thread, the young Groundhogs are discussing how to build an Expert Advisor on 0.1 bars of ZigZag!))
2. They order "mathematicians" to save the fast and leading indicators.
3. Annoyed by the task of inventing MTS according to their ideas of a firefighter.
4. the weatherman advises and teaches other traders)))
5. Professional traders value literature, indicators, ideas to save their psyche from 0.1-bar hypnosis.
Security levels or distressed traders
5. Professional traders value literature, indicators, ideas saving their psyche from 0.1-bar hypnosis.
And how deeply he digs! "Professional traders value literature, indicators, ....". Well, of course they do, father, and how!
Yes, the hypnosis of the last two bars (variation: analysis of last ticks in an attempt to anticipate a move) and unilinear thinking that does not allow to break out of the horizon of one timeframe is a long and painful cure. I managed to understand the real reason of ineffectiveness of classical filters in traditional interpretations of their signals (for example, a muwings crossing - or breakdown of level 70 on Stochastics): it is "localism" due to which not only the price history but also the indicator history is excluded from the analysis, and the entire analysis comes down to calculation of a sign of some indicator function on the last bars.
In principle, the Efficient Market Hypothesis says exactly that: "everything is already taken into account, the history doesn't matter". It is a good drug for the new sacrificial lambs: "consider only the latest information - and here you have indicators, which should be interpreted locally".
And it's not that classic filters are bad. No, it is not: they are neither bad nor good, they just exist as analytical tools. Their trading interpretations are bad!
Aha!:)) Now you understand my gibberish enthusiasm too. I just had enough of my "bulb" to understand this flight of fancy from the first post. You're supposed to be on your best behavior now (not a rage, but more of a question and take it in stride). And make no mistake, it's a pity "Vitalik" has gone somewhere:)
If we disregard the manifestation of superstructural regulatory systems (such as CB) and dispense with Religion, but use the religious principle of "Look for the cause within yourself", the quadratic time dependence in levels of safety can be explained by the Concept of Brain Layers. In this concept, the Brain matures in neural layers like an onion. New knowledge/skills are processed by the upper young layers. The lower layers of the brain get involved as the training volume is gained. That is, the immature trader has only the top layer of the brain at work and therefore the dependence is close to linear. A mature trader processes information by N layers of brain and has more safety. Interaction between neuronal layers is characterized by dependence close to the square root of the time factor.
Aha!:)) Now you understand my gibberish enthusiasm too. I just had enough of my "bulb" to understand this flight of fancy from the first post. You're supposed to be on your best behavior now (not a rage, but more of a question and take it in stride). And make no mistake, it's a pity "Vitalik" has gone somewhere:)
And Korey himself sat on the podium and broadcasts like a Great Guru, while the rest of us spread our ears and open our mouths....
This is complete nonsense! A complete misunderstanding of the workings of the brain, and in particular of consciousness and subconscious and intuition (or, if you like, overconscious levels).
Don't be so categorical and categorical. Let's not descend into direct public accusations.