FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications 2015(continued) - page 1657
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http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/html/index.en.html
Moved into a new swap tomorrow for 70lb. For another week. The 4th (Friday) is the meat divestment. Options contract expiry and news. The yuan's inclusion in the basket of reserve currencies was announced today. The spring is tightening.
Where does the spring compress?
Usually to the centre.
It's nice to have a conversation with an adequate person.
1 I agree. Hence, if the volume is huge and growing and the price stands still, then the passive side takes and absorbs all the order flow and holds the level. We are not interested in motives.
Further scenarios are as follows:
- The level is held, it means that the price turns (though it doesn't guarantee that there won't be another attack). If the price turns and volumes go in the other direction (the active side), then we can immediately get into a reversal. If the volumes are small, the retest will occur and we should again watch the volumes.
OM may serve as a valid hint. For example, if the price bangs against the level, the volume rises considerably, and OM drops, it means that the meat is closing.
- The level has been sold. I will not describe it in detail, let the experts think it through.
2. The rally ALWAYS begins after the position is gained by the Major and is marked by the fact that the pressure is "given". A strong impulse with high volume is a sign of "pressure". And we should understand that the Shark is already in position, its task now is to support the rally, there is no sense for it to keep the pressure, the price will now move without volumes at the expense of those who joined the movement.
And again, I will not describe it further, because there are a lot of nerds here, they know everything.
If we lookat the AGREGATE Ribbon, everything becomes clearer, because the large companies hide their positions in asbergs, "smearing" the set in the range. In fact, it is much clearer what happens if the volume at the level is aggregated by bids and ascams. Clusters are also an amazing tool. There is a lot of information on the web.
Back to add to it.
A serious mistake of all those who try to understand the market dynamics is that they view the market from the perspective of two participants - the big man and the meat. In reality, there are at least three participants - and the MM. This is the basis on which we should proceed. A Forex broker may quickly enter the market, instantly fulfill the task and step aside - that's all, he's in the market, and now let the petty bidders deal with MM, and he just at the right moments will set limits and push small volumes in the right direction.
In general, we are talking about the same thing. But there are a few points:
1. OI is of no interest to me at all.
Explanation. If the traded volume per unit time (per hour or day) is a relative thing, but at least comparable (you can see the absolute ratio - for example, when compared to historical data (for example, the maximum volume of the last month/contract/year was traded per day), then the OM is not comparable to history.
Phrases such as "OI is falling, it means this will happen" are nonsense to me. Because it is impossible to know the moment when the OI value will be the lowest. If I knew that "this is the bottom of the OM" - then the analysis of OM would be of no value. But as it is....
2. Exactly what I was talking about.
3. IMHO. This is all suitable for intrade or short term.
When a trend lasting six months is reversed at least for a correction, no tape etc. will help you in this. To see this reversal, which even in case of correction will last for weeks...
Lactone, I'm writing this to you personally, because you should just ignore the duckbills with their +%, they will never bring in -%, which they have much more of.
It's an axiom that sellers and buyers are always equal, and it's not even up for discussion.
Again an example on the same potatoes. I want to buy 10 kilos of potatoes at 10, i.e., I put a limit on the buy at 10 for 10kg, creating a demand.
But no one is willing to sell at 10, the lowest price at which they are willing to sell at 11. There's an offer at 11.
So I buy at 11 because I have to.
What happened to the price? It went up one point. What moved it? Demand and supply. That's the only thing that moved the price.
So what should we be tracking in the market? The intentions of the participants, that's one, the OI is two, at what price the highest volume of transactions took place, three.
That's it.
If we can see that, we're good.
Thank you. I will describe my point of view with drawings in the evening. I just don't have the time.
P.S. Just write "Lacton" or Ivan)
By OI I meant "dynamic" which is going on in Ninza/ATAS/KD
I'm going to trot you out a bit - Well the pound is approaching the resistance zone, it's a sin not to turn around)))) But we have to beat the bikers' brains out, as we did in March-April.
Do you get the OM data from the CME website?
By OI I meant "dynamic" which is going on in Ninza/ATAS/KD
I'm going to trot you out a bit - Well the pound is approaching the resistance zone, it's a sin not to turn around)))) But we have to beat the bikers' brains out, as we did in March-April.
Do you get the OM data from the CME website?
I'm asking in human terms, no tricks)))) I think it may affect the eu, for example a thousand points down and then up.
I'm sorry, I got a little excited.
To the centre means to the centre of the range. The one shown in Strange's screenshots. The matter is that at contract expiration it "drops out" of the general picture and in the last two days before expiration it may show serious flights in either direction, and it may go back and forth about three or four pips by 100 during the day. This is because during the last days the delta of the option contract is close to one, the time value is nearly zero, it's traded almost like the futures. And speculators are taking advantage of that, getting in opposite directions on futures and options at the same time, minimizing risk. That's why there are such flights.
After the expiration, the range down will be significantly widened by the December contract fallout.