a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 178
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Good luck.
Yes, I know you're using this account for debugging (somewhat confused by your terminology, where straightening, where debugging, and where error correction is :o). I just liked your concept, and, I decided to look at it in more detail, for now (as I wrote earlier) in MathCAD, for reliable channel prediction. And of course it is interesting to watch trading, that's why I am interested in it.
What do you mean? Why is that?
if it's about me, i'm generally more concerned with my own successes than anything else,
and the only thing that upsets me is that the thread hasn't deleted meaningless posts - I have to read the disgusting filth between the valuable information. :(
thanks so much for replying!
can you give me your email or icq? my atm: 317 868 500
According to my data, by time the up-trend isn't over yet. there are still about 10k four-hour candles. (didn't bother with the levels right now... but it looks like there's still a good half and a half to go).
That's funny. Do you have a rough algorithm in the books?
i'm not really going to copy it, i already have some concept....
and even demo results, fantastic for some, but I'm losing reals: psychology, man...
decided to beat discipline with knowledge - now I'm busy writing MTS-ka.
Only the technical work is left for the simplest version, but I'm not sure I'll be satisfied with the first result...
If you're in the mood to learn new things, I can also suggest some sources of information...
thanks a lot!
hehehe... if only you and I would write... :))
forget it! you like to waste a lot of time, don't you?
how's the parabolic regression working out?
frankly, the more I learn, the more I wonder about the idiocy of this probability theory, where the state of the system depends only on the previous state of the system.
then there'd be cases where a man would hit the jackpot 50 times on a one-armed bandit.
almost in a row. After the next game, the odds are the same again, aren't they?
That's a ridiculous theory, in my opinion. And on such a house of cards they build the foundation of science...
or am i wrong? if so, correct me. (don't judge - I have no special education. I am self-taught.)
After all, time can be spent on something really useful... ;)
PS Changed the message so that it doesn't seem abrupt.
then there would be cases where a person would hit the jackpot 50 times on a one-armed bandit.
almost in a row. After the next game, the odds are the same again, aren't they?
That's a ridiculous theory, in my opinion. And on such a house of cards they build the foundation of science...
or am i wrong? if so, correct me. (don't judge - I have no special education. I am self-taught.)
This is an amateur's guess! Before making such profound conclusions you would have to get acquainted at least on an elementary level with theorists! You have simply confused the one-armed bandit with the coin flip, and have also attached some "previous state of the system" to probability theory, on the basis of which the theorist can supposedly predict the "next state"! :o))) Believe me, but the probability of winning a one-armed bandit is orders of magnitude smaller than the 50/50 probability you mentioned, and probability theory is not engaged in predicting the next state of the system based on the previous one! Probability theory can only describe the probability of a system being in a particular state based on an analysis of the previous history of the system. And that, believe me, is a BIG difference from what you require from it in this assumption of yours!
Then, about the sequence of random events, you just have to read the "conditional events" section of the theorist. There you will learn that the probability of the same event occurring consecutively several times is not at all equal to the algebraic sum of the probabilities of occurrence of the event itself. The total probability of several events is calculated by completely different formulas. Therefore the probability of winning 50 times in a row at the one-armed bandit will, in the limit, tend to zero.
In general, I explained as best I could "on my fingers" ;o) And then you decide for yourself whether you need it or not.
That's what I was hinting at for you.
What can I say... I analyze 90 days on that data is selected from one to 5-6 channels depending on the timeframe, some of them are really clearly reflected in a few days, but some are false, so cumulative probability calculation turns out wrong too. Now I have frozen development in this direction for a while, we need a selection criterion, but we are looking for it.
No problem - that email address is in all my indies - 4vg AT mail.ru.
Learning something new, imho, is always useful. Often there are very useful approaches at the junctions.
Regarding PTI - alas, its algorithm is described very roughly. And this induke is programmed only in AGET, which is, however, understandable.
Good luck.
In general, I explained as best I could "on my fingers" ;o) And then you decide for yourself whether you need it or not.
solandr, i think he's just kidding! :)
Something like http://exler.ru/novels/wife.htm
- I don't know. Personally, I've been trying to figure it out for an hour," I say.
- I just wanted to come over in about twenty minutes," he says without listening to me. - I was told such a joke - great! But it's not as interesting to tell over the phone.
- Yeah," I understand. - So you called me to say you wanted to come over?
- Well, yeah.
- And that took you about an hour?
- So you're the one who's all jabbering and won't let me say a word," says the rascal with genuine indignation.
- Wha-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o? I was outraged.
- What did you hear! - Sergey does not give up. - You keep jabbering and jabbering," he mocked. - I can't get a word in edgewise.
- Okay," I said, trying my best to remain calm. - I'll wait for you at home. But I recommend you wear a bulletproof vest and take a couple of packs of Band-Aids with you.
- Come on, Ir," he laughs. - I was only joking," he hangs up.
No, did you see that? What a joke! Still, you have to push men around. Or educate them. And who's going to do that if not us?
Half an hour later, the doorbell rings. My miracle of nature shows up. He'd brought some stupid book on 1C accounting or something. It said "C++" on the cover. Probably some new version. My beloved fell on the sofa after making this splendid present and started gurgling with laughter.
- Why gurgled? - I asked grudgingly.
- The joke is very funny, - muttered Sergey and gurgled again.
- Come on, tell me," I became angry. - It gurgles like a methane deposit in the swamp...
- Well, listen, - Sergei started in velvet voice. - The man is asked: "What is the probability that you will meet a dinosaur when you go out?" "Well," he replies, "one billionth. They ask a woman the same question. She replies: "The probability is fifty percent." "Why?" they ask her. "Because it's meet or not meet!" she answers, and Sergey bursts out laughing, falls on his back and starts twitching his legs.
I stand there and look at the boy in perplexity. What was wrong with him? Laughing like a madman at something I do not know.
- What are you laughing at, you weirdo? - What's so funny? What did the man answer wrong?
Sergey looked at me with a blurred look, and then laughed so hard that he almost fell off the couch. No-o-o-o-o, there's definitely something wrong with the guy. I think I have to give him the finger to prove it. I'm giving him the finger.
- Fifty percent! - He's shrieking, he's getting exhausted. - I'll meet him or I won't meet him!
- What's the big deal? - I'm getting really annoyed. - Why are you laughing like Taras Bulba's horse?
- It's funny," Sergey tries to explain. - How it is possible, that the probability of meeting of a dinosaur is 50 percents? They practically do not exist in the nature.
- So what," I do not allow myself to be thwarted. - The aunt correctly replied: or meet, or not meet. So the probability is 50 percent. So what you're laughing here - I do not really understand, so I want to either crack you with a pillow, or just tear into ten little programmers. By the way, when you laugh, your face gets very silly. I mean," I corrected myself, "even stupider than when you're not laughing.
- Man, you just don't get it," Sergey groaned and started laughing again, "the likelihood of meeting is one thing, but the likelihood of seeing is another.
- I think you're already confused yourself," I say. - Stop laughing! - I start shouting at the whole flat, because, frankly, he's getting tired.
Sergey immediately calms down.
- Look," he says seriously. - I have one coin.
- Well...
- I throw it.
- Throw it, but not out the window.
- What's the odds of it going to tails?
- Fifty percent.
- That's right! Why?
- Because either it will or it won't.
- Hmm... - he's thinking. - Well, okay. Now suppose I flip two coins.
- Of the same denomination? - I clarify.
- It doesn't really matter.
- It does matter.
- Well, all right. Two coins of the same denomination. Now, what are the odds of them both... I underline, BOTH of them will fall with tails.
- Fifty percent," I say firmly.
- Because it will either fall out or not fall out? - He clarifies, like an idiot.
- Of course he is!
- Shit," he yells. - So you do not leave anything from the theory of probability! In your feminine way, every event has a fifty percent probability, because either it will or it won't.
- Well, yes," I reply. - That's how it works, if you ask the question accordingly.
- Oh, God," Sergei grabs his head and starts rocking on the couch. - Why, pray tell, I in the institute terver year studied? Such a beautiful science... The Monte Carlo method," he quoted.
- Right," I said. - That's what I thought.
- What did you think so?
- That your whole male theory of probability comes down to cards, booze and broads.