A-B-C-D Trade - page 219
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SPX500 with fib channel pulled from Moon 225 to Moon 180-degree.
Price bounced off 138.2 channel fib, paused at 61.8 and now bumping up against Moon 180.
First 2 charts are on SPX500. We moved fib channel plot up one notch to Moon 270 and Moon 225. This provided resistance with 61.8 channel at current price 1187
The other chart is an update on the APF plot, where price has surfaced above upper fork line. Can use fib channel to align with APF for smaller intervals of S&R going upward.
THe EUR/USD chart with HAS candles is an update and uses last FC plot aligned with Moon 45 to Moon 0-degree. We saw a 2nd hit the the 31.4 and now to the Moon 0-degree (sames as blue 127.2) 137872.
Equities markets in Europe and the U/S were jubilant over a conference call between Merkel, Sarkozy, and Greek P.M. Papandreou.
Traders were eager to cling onto any semblance of good news and parlay it into a rare positive day.
So, we'll call this chart the Stevie Wonder "I just called to say I love you".
Attached is a continuance of the 1-hour chart with the APF plot.
With the APF, we apply indicator AML_v1 to produce interior fibs. To generate S&R above the upper fork, we utilized the Fib Channel tool.
Alignment is Low = Upper_ML2 High = Upper Fork
Same horizontal fib plot: High = Sept 2nd 1202.80 Low = Sept 5th 1137.40
Price ratcheted up from low at 05:00 to make a 161.8 extension above the upper fork. This top was caught by the fib channel's 61.8, during the 19:00 period.
That top of 1202 is the Sept 2nd High of horizontal fib plot, which was also hit Sept 7th. Lurking bounce traders took advantage of bounce for about 18.00, as profit taking at end of session also in play.
Alternative to above:
BAJA bearish divergence registered 2 peaks. The 18:00 candle was not at a describable resistance. Use of 15-min trigger provide entry at 19:45 price of 1195, and got over the 19:00 candle high.
As if the European banks and financial sector need more bad news and drama...breaking news that UBS (Switzerland) is investigating an unauthorized trade that lost USD 2 billion.
Fib channel plot moved up a notch to High = Moon 90 and Low = Moon 45-degree.
Split-screen has 15-min on left with session colors and fib extension.
Chart on left continues PSQ9 and fib channel plot.
Price just met 127.2 extension 1.38038, and 61.8 fib channel.
***
Market shrugged off UBS news. Ahead is slew of U.S. data that can affect this pairs, from 12:30 CPI through 14:00 Philly Fed.
Monitored CHF pairs. EUR/CHF rose on UBS but has retrace 50% off those gains.
Standard Deviation Channel (SDC) plot on EUR/GBP 30-min, using deviation setting of 1.62 (1.618):
1 = Sept 14th 06:00 low .86375
2 - Sept 15th 08:00 high .87402
Spike up during 13:00 GMT in Euro due to coordinated central bank effort to provide more liquidity with U.S. Dollars to European banks.
The ECB, FED, BOJ, and SNB were the participants that are providing USD for the next 3 months.
The 13:00 and 13:30 candles closed just below the SDC's upper channel after marking high of .87891.
Subsequent inability to break that high further confirms plot. This allows trader to anticipate "reversion to the mean", which is to say a return to the mid-channel.
Price arrived at the mid-channel during the 01:00 period and has hugged that line thus far.
Horizontal fib plot (white) uses Low/High of spike .87183/.87891. Its 38.2 = .87621 and where price hit support at mid-channel.
Here is the CFD US30, which tends to mimic the Dow30 Futures. Standard Deviation Channel plot on daily with deviation setting at 1.62 (1.618):
1) July 6th, 2010
2) May 2nd, 2011
Fib channel (FC) aligned to SDC's mid and lower channel lines.
ABC plot's swings: May 2nd/June 15th/July 22nd
Point B was right at the SDC's lower channel line. Two more revisits to lower channel line during June was rejected, and price retrace 88.6% to 12798, forming Point C. BAJA bearish divergence here.
Support at SDC's lower channel was breached July 28th. Small pullback was restricted by same channel line.
Price proceeded to accelerate down, breaking Point B Aug 2nd.
S&P downgraded U.S. long-term debt after close of business Friday Aug 5th.
Price gapped at open of week Sunday Aug 7th, pausing briefly at the fib channel's 100% expansion.
Aug 8th saw a power move to the fib channel 138.2, same level as the FE 200. Aug 9th probed with wick to the FC 161.8.
***
Now what? Try SDC plot using high/low May 2nd, 2011 and Aug 9, 2011
We'll post that chart in due course.
EUR/USD 1-hour SDC plot with deviation set on 1.62 (1.618):
1) Sept 12th 04:00
2) Sept 15th 13:00
Fib channel pull from SDC's lower line to mid-channel line.
After the large spike up during the 13:00 candle, the U.S. session could not send price higher and the 100% fib channel expansion held.
Trading between the fibs: the 100% and 61.8% captured about 30 pips.
S/L (just above 18:00 high of 1.38951
Entry 20:00 open price 1.38837
Risk = 17 pips
TP = 1.38588 minus spread = 1.38538
Reward = 30 pips
We have 3 charts. Upper left is 15-min session colors. Lower left is same 1-hour plot as last post.
Chart on right is continuance of plot using PSQ9.
Europe not initially impressed with coordinated Central Banks intervention with USD liquidity.
Asian Low = 1.38286
Support just hit = 1.37951
Seeking more
An update on 30-min EUR/GBP with SDC. We pointed to short at the upper channel line, and its hit to the mid-channel.
As Europe opened, sell-off of the Euro across the board was initial action taken in reaction to yesterday's Central Banks intervention.
We now see that this move to the downside met support at the SDC's lower channel...precisely.