A-B-C-D Trade - page 213
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Correction; SNB uses VERBAL intervention.
Their tolerance is that EUR/CHF is not to drop below 1.2000, and will purchase unlimited amount in FX market to achieve that limit.
Attached is XAU_USD with Gann_SQ9. We removed vertical dividing lines in order to view gigantic wick on 08:00 candle.
Horizontal plot: Low = Sept 5th 13:00 1884 and High = Sept 5th 15:30 1902
200% extension = 1920 - same as 540-degree level.
And here is EUR/CHF, which spiked up trading at the desired level of 1.2000.........for now.
08:00 candle low was 1.1252 and high reached 1.2189. That's 937 pips.
Pair had been consolidated near the 50% retrace fib level of 1.10197, based on plot using then Aug Low - High.
As far as dinner conversation goes, we were thinking about making another out-of-the-box suggestion.
Instead of the SNB losing billions with physical intervention ($21B last time), why don't they help Greece on their short -term borrowing?
The vicious cycle and Catch-22 situation with debt-saddled nations:
Negative or very low GDP
+
Austerity measures
= increase in Debt-To-GDP Ratio as nation cannot grow.
Short-term borrowing rate om 2-year, for Greece, is 40%.
Bloomberg t.v. guest Mr. Ferguson, a Professor at Harvard, is right of course when pointing to the Great Depression having a 2nd leg down.
Here's a link to a chart of the Great Depression.
signaltrend.com/stock-market-great-depression
Stock Market Great Depression
It plots the boom in the Roaring 20's to 1929 peak, A-B
The initial crash of 1929 as B-C
The "Sucker Rally" of 1930 C-D
The much larger drop to 1932 D-E
***
Here's another comparative chart from bestcashcow.com - link and attachment.
Dow Jones Industrials Crash Analysis - Great Depression Versus Today
Attached is CFD that tends to mimic the Dow 30 Futures.
We can see the green box that identifies last week and its closing price of 11.241, as the U.S. went on a 3-day holiday.
This instrument's 13:30 opening price today (arrow) was 10,950, a gap of almost 300 points.
Tight plot (yellow) High = Sept 5th 12:30 11.101 Low = Sept 5th 22:30 10,928
US30 retouched low but has actually risen, hitting the 78.6 fib of 11,064.
SPX500 also rose, just retested day's high of 1157, before retreating.
Bank stocks under siege, especially the 17 being sued by the FHFA. That group includes a few European banks, which got hammered along with most of the sector, during the European session. One bank was down 10%.
Here is a continuance of XAU_USD 30-min chart with Gann_SQ9.
The post verbal SNB intervention saw a 54.00 price whipsaw. The top of that range was 1912, the previous high prior to probe 1920. Low was 1859.
The U.S. session, after initial confusion, fear, and tug-o-war, has pushed gold down further to the fib plot's 200% extension level of 1866.
As always, we keep our eyes on pivot areas, as we can see the bounce up hit resistance near 11:00 low.
EUR/CHF in tight range just above 1.2000 area after SNB statement.
The aforementioned correlation between CHF and Gold pointed to watching possible intervention with CHF, to get short-term hints on gold direction.
This 30-min EUR/USD chart has session colors and fib plot using Asian Low 1.40382 and spike's high of 1.42805.
Obviously, this pair got dragged up by EUR/CHF after SNB verbal intervention.
EUR/USD decoupled from that correlation as remaining flight to safety took control with USD buying. This pair is, by far, the heaviest traded in FX.
Bottom is 127.2 fib 1.39728, hit during 15:30 and now being retested.
Another effective way to create diagonal S&R is to apply the fib channel tool to the PSQ9 Moon levels.
For example, EUR/USD 1-hour chart at start of week on Aug 28th, pull from Moon 90-degree down to Moon 0-degree. This is A-B. Expansion levels to the downside are:
31.4, 61.8, 100, 138.2 , 161.8, 200, 261.8, etc.
The 100% expansion should align with the next Moon level down, which is the Moon 270-degree, since levels are space 90- degrees apart. Thereafter, the 200% should also align with the next Moon 180-degree level.
We added Moon 45-degree (gold color) to show further adherence between A-B.
This technique, similar to the way we align fib channels to the Andrew’s Pitchfork plots, provides additional S&R between major intervals. Now that you can see these S&R levels, you will notice adherence every week, with every instrument.
As with everything else, it is used as additional confirmation, forming fib/S&R clusters.
The attached EUR/USD example has a pink arrow pointing to the Aug 30th 10:00 candle low of 1.43834 (entry) at the diagonal 61.8 fib channel. This area is also near the blue horizontal 61.8% retrace fib, which was result of plot:
Low = Aug 26th 14:00 1.43277 High = Aug 26th 16:00 1.45005
This pivot was also a fractal turning point. The fast RSI(4) was in oversold, registering a 7, and climbing thereafter.
Price rose back up to the blue 23.6% fib price of 1.44609 during the 19:00 candle period, which intersected the Moon 0-degree. Distance of move was 78 pips.
S/L options included just below the horizontal Mars 0-degrees (gold color) 1.43650, and same as the blue 78.6 fib. With spread and cushion, Risk = 25 pips.
Net Reward/Risk Ratio = 75/25 and 3:1
***
Other plots attached:
XAU_USD Sept 5th Moon 180 (A) and Moon 135 (B). Its 161.8 caught Tuesday's 08:00 spike low to 1859.
USD/JPY Sept 6th Moon 90-degree (A) and Moon 180-degree (B). The 61.8 caught highs of today thus far. Last revisit of that high bounced down was to the channel’s 31.4.
AUD/NZD Sept 4th start of week Moon 180-degree (A) and Moon 270-degree (B). The 161.8 caught the high on Sept 6th 19:00 1.27960. Married up with horizontal plot using Aug 5th low/high of 1.25355/1.26984. Top was its 161.8, and retrace back to 100% channel = 85 pips.
Attached is 1-hour with channel plot Sept 4th start of week Moon 90 to Moon 45 (instead on Moon 0-degree).
Adherence quite strict, even despite spike caused by SNB. Bottom is 314.2% expansion fib, which is a multiple of Pi 3.14.
This is a consistence tool. After a few plots, it will be very easy for new users to identify and apply.