A-B-C-D Trade - page 285
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Split-screen with regular candles on right. Left utilizes Gann Activator Bars and HAS MA T3.
The Jan 13-16th pivot low at the 127.2 can be seen transitioning above T3. BAJA bullish divergence at bottom. The T3 lags of course, but can be used for general guidance and S&R. T3 acting like a trendline.
Right side chart plots fibs from Oct 27th high to Jan 13th low. Green horizontal line marks S&R, which was taken out yesterday. This level also is the 38.2% retrace fib.
One of the more interesting pairs the last couple of days is the EUR/AUD.
We can see the 2 spikes on 1-hour, related to NFP and AUD rate decision. That was followed by twin propellant Greece deal anticipation and dovish Bernanke.
At top was BAJA bearish divergence 18:00 and 00:00 peaks. Decline was to 38.2% fib of 1.22360, as market tired of waiting on Greece.
Edit add: 2nd chart has Andrew's Pitchfork and fibs. Middle fork intersects 38.2 fib at 09:00 today. Add AML indicator for interior fibs, and we have more diagonal S&R going forward.
The much anticipated ratification of the Greece debt deal would not make them solvent. It is just an agreement for creditors to take a large loss (structured default), and to cut projected debt-to-GDP ratio from 160% to 120% within a few years.
Many believe Greece will eventually leave the Euro Zone, but stay in the European Zone. If a return to the Drachma does occur (officially default), look for devaluation.
Attached is a 4-hour chart of USD/JPY, with Gann Activator Bars and HAS MA T3.
We applied indicator SQ9(Price) 22.5 Factor 56 to get S&R. Start price 79.524, direction down.
The start price was significant due to intervention fears in October. We can also see that it moved 90-degrees up.
Moving averages, and derivatives of such, are lagging. We illustrated big trend movements with the HAS MA T3. This focus is on a small retrace after a down move.
We marked 2 dips of a BAJA bullish divergence formation on Dec 30th 12:00 and Jan 3rd 08:00 candle periods.
The 2nd dip coincided with the SQ9's 68-degree level of 75.579, which is support for S/L.
Horizontal fib plot for retrace uses High = Dec 28th 78.028 Low = 76.599
Retrace peaked on Jan 6th at the 50% fib level of 77.314.
The divergence and SQ9 support provided entry. The T3 kept trader in trade until target retrace fib met.
Conversely, trader can drop down in time-frame, such as to the 1-hour, and use HAS instead of Gann Act Bars, while keeping the T3.
GBP/USD rising on data and ahead of BOE rate decision at 12:00 GMT.
50% fib now, based on plot using yesterday's high and today's low.
BOE and ECB held rates, as anticipated. The big news was agreement on the Greek debt deal, which was confirmed by the ECB.
Euro Group Chief Juncker states that Greece must provide political assurances and guarantee cuts prior to first tranche of new bailout. Markets give another collective sigh.
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
Attached is a 1-hour EUR/USD with Planetary SQ9 Moon and Mars at 45-degree intervals.
We thickened the volume indicator to show the 2nd peak of BAJA bearish divergence on the Feb 9th 14:00 candle was red with declining volume.
A strong up candle that finishes with red volume (declining from previous candle) is a type of divergence.
Diagonal Moon 225-degree (gold color) intersected both peaks of BAJA divergence as resistance. The horizontal Mars 180-degree (red) acted as S&R.
Fibo fan uses Low = Feb 6th 14:00 High = Feb 9th 14:00, and its 38.2 providing support.
Bounce at European open also at 78.6% retrace fib (not shown) that uses Feb 8th 23:00 Low. The 07:00 candle period registered 13.8 on the RSI(4-Period) for oversold.
Entire move was 1.3310 to 1.3237, and was in a drifting manner rather than a sharp move.
09:30 was last of data wave that included 07:00 higher than anticipated German CPI.
EUR/USD got a brief pop up, but now looking to retest day's low on Greece disappointment/delay heading into weekend.
Swing traders unwilling to be exposed on the long side, especially in view of scheduled protests. etc.
We can see swings for an Andrew's Pitchfork plot on the 30-min, per attached.
Swings: Feb 9th 01:30/Feb 9th 13:00/Feb 10th 07:00.
This produce the middle fork as resistance for the current 10:00 candle.
Having just recorded positive economic data this morning, this pair likely gets dragged down by cross correlation with EUR/USD.
Standard Deviation Channel plot uses Feb 8th 09:30 and Feb 10th 07:00. The upper channel is also at/near the 09:30/10:00 peaks.
Plot retrace fibs.
While EUR/USD action has lurking bounce traders at day's low, the GBP/USD pause gives us parameters for tight retrace plot.
On 5-min we can see 09:25 pivot low of 1.58218. Sometimes market uses the event to mark low/high for plots. In this case, it was the last data released at 09:30.
This tight plot has its 78.6 at 1.58218, where price has just stalled.
O.K. we trust that the experienced traders are short, as support levels broken and several pairs plunging.