A-B-C-D Trade - page 212
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After significant gains lately, AUD/USD is part of the "risk off".
Plot Asian high/low results in 161.8 = 1.6482 which is price now and continued strong push lower might be ahead.
NAS100 bounces just ahead of Sunday High 2164 in decline. All instruments pausing now in what may just be small pullback ahead of further deterioration during U.S. session..
Dr. Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund, via bloomberg, says eyes on government as FED can't do it alone.
Just to paint the picture: this is the first time the NFP number has been zero, since 1945.
Attached is 1-hour USOIL. We plotted blue fibs based on Aug 30th 12:00 low 86.44 and Aug 30th 15:00 high 89.18.
Marked 127.2 extension Sept 1st 16:00 and has since declined to 138.2 extension to the downside of 85.40, closing candle at also Sunday High and 127.2 of 85.70.
Here is the CFD SPX500, which tends to mimic the S&P 500 Futures, with Gann_SQ9 indicator applied to the 4-hour interval.
Start of swing Aug 26th 12:00 candle low 1134.60. The rise was an overshoot of the 720-degree (blue) price of 1221.40 (2 cycles), reaching 1230.90 on Aug 31st.
The decline since then, has touched the 360-degree price level (blue) of 1177.60 today.
If you read this much later, the indicator would have self adjusted. Therefore, you can use the indicator SQ9(Price) with same start price.
SPX500 extending below support now. This is going into a U.S. 3-day weekend. Traders consider possible further decline when Asia opens Sunday and Europe Monday.
127.2 = 1169.50
138.2 = 1166.60
2nd chart is updated Gann_SQ9, and we can see the hit to the 495-degree of orange (decline leg) 1170.60 precisely. This level also the 61.8 retrace.
We had mentioned the correlation between gold (and CFD XAU_USD) and CHF. Attached is a split-screen, with both charts set to a 4-hour time-frame.
Chart on the right:
Fib plot: Low = Aug 25th 08:00 1702.89 High = Aug 28th 22:00 1834.87
1st set of arrows point to Aug 26th 16:00 period, when both were rising. This is abnormal as they usually trade in divergence of each other (see daily time-frame)
The correction occurred after the Aug 29th 16:00 pivot low (1775.88), as marked by the 2nd set of arrows. That pivot was also the 38.2% retrace (green) level.
Price proceeded to rise above the 36-period Moving Average, which was configured to represent a 6-day week 4 X 6 X 6 = 36.
4-hour candles X 6 hours (= 24-hour day) X 6 days = 36.
Price encountered resistance near High, probing to 1840 during Aug 30th.
The subsequent consolidation and pullback was 38.2%, based on plot using Low = Aug 29th 16:00 1775.88. The 36MA acted as support as it has done during the major up-trends.
The 2nd to last candle on the chart represents the 12:00 period that had NFP. Price went up one more candle to hit the 138.2 extension at week’s end.
Resistance above is the 161.8 = 1916, which is near previous and all-time high of 1912, established on Aug 22nd. Bounce trade opportunity.
The market was pricing in and reacting to bad news and events, well ahead of NFP.
USD and CHF are flight-to-safety assets. Therefore we can see a tug-o-war with USD/CHF. Other CHF pairs tilt to CHF strength. When XAU_USD is rising, the USD is weakening.
These aspects together usually tip weakness to USD/CHF.
Chart on left plots both using Indicator Multi-Instrument(4). Yellow is XAU_USD and blue is CHF. We zero out colors for the other 2 instruments.
We can see the XAU_USD and CHF were moving in the same direction on Aug 26th (vertical line). The arrow points to aforementioned Aug 29th 16:00 pivot up by XAU_USD.
This happened ahead of the CHF decline. USD/CHF had its tug-o-war before making a large move to the downside. This can be considered as an example of XAU_USD leading USD/CHF.
They crossed on Sept 1st 16:00, as marked by the 2nd vertical line. That can be used as the trigger set-up. BUY XAU_USD, SELL USD.CHF. Trader can then monitor plots on other chart for S&R, extension levels, etc.
Alternative entry on breakout of 1840 high.
CORRECTION: to post #2104:
“This means that gold price will move in the opposite direction of Euro currency pairs, such as USD/CHF and EUR/CHF.”
We meant to say gold moves in opposite of CHF pairs USD/CHF and EUR/CHF.
wow its great thanks a lot good we learn more form ur views thanks again
European stock markets closed after getting plummeted, and represented a continuance of global selling.
London's FTSE100 lost 3.6%
French CAC40 lost 4.7%,
Germany's DAX lost 5.3%
***
Most currency pairs gapped upon week's open, and USD strength was obvious continued flight to safety and noticeable early on.
EUR/USD is down 130 pips from Friday's close.
AUD/USD was down near round number 1.0500 for 150 pips, and lurking bounce traders there did very well as pair bounced nearly 80 pips up.
Gold CFD XAU_USD at SQ9(Price) 22.5-degree resistance of 1901, near all-time high of 1912. Early bird shorts and profit taking occurred at 1905 during 09:00 period.
U.S. Indice Futures also got hammered to the downside, and expectations of a large gap upon reopening of U.S. markets Tuesday will likely come to reality.
SPX500 neared Aug 26th low of 1135 for minus 24 points (2%) from Friday's close.
USD30 down as much as 167 points (1.4%) from Friday's close of 11,161, and currently sits at 11,000.
USOIL had made a 138.2 to downside, as last posted, and extended to its 200% of 83.70.
This level also the wide 61.8% retrace fib of 83.37, based on plot:
Low = Aug 19th 79.35 and High = Sept 1st 89.88.
***
Attached is 30-min EUR/USD with ABC plot using obvious swings 01:30/07:00/08:30.
FE 161.8 = 1.40637 hit during 13:30 period.
Trading break of Point B to FE 161.8 = 50 gross pips. We covered S/L placement options in early stages of this thread.
****
German Chancellor Merkel's party lost another election today. Strangely, they ran on the premise of how well she handled the EU debt crisis.
gold touches new high 1920.80 in asian mkt
Swiss National Bank uses physical intervention, and threatens to have unlimited power to keep exchange rate at 1.2000.
Major spikes everywhere.