The London Open - page 153
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Gd morning all
Overall a great week and thankyou for your kind emails. Some truely amazing results with the best student making 1,700 pips this week.
My aim as always is to get the very few who arent quite mastering the strategy up to speed as quickly as possible and will work with them next week. Maybe an extra school session on monday in the room. Will let u know in mondays session.
It was a good week for me but i let myself down on friday. I was up well, got greedy and my thoughts over powered what the chart was telling me.
I was convinced we would see a few retracements. I am not upset that we didnt (as you all know i am long GBPJPY, CABLE and short EURGBP) but i felt the market needed this after the week it had.
Infact yesterday morning was a perfect long off that DP with an entry on a 5min chart but my blinkers were on thinking a pullback was on. How many times do i say, dont think too much but trade what you see??? Well i broke this rule on friday and took a big hit for 200 pips on 3 trades. Yes i made 180ish back within the hour but the principal was wrong. I traded poorly and have learnt from that and will move on for next week. I had my stops in the right place for my trades but stupidly moved them up as the market went up...I was disappearing into a dark hole getting chased by the market believing it would turn and it didnt. That was stupid of me and never again.
Anyway overall a fantastic week and glad to see so many of you breaking the target of 250 pips.
Have a great weekend. I am starting running again so wish me luck.
D
PS Please feel free to post on this thread...
London Open Notes - Monday 3rd April
Good morning team
Amazed how the market didn’t retrace on late Friday afternoon but maybe today is the day
CABLE
This is great news for our longer term book and 1.5000 will surely be tested this week and broken. Still targeting mid 1.5000s.
Only option until we break 1.5000 is the pullback.
60min trigger is very high
Watch break of 1.4900 but lets be very careful of the DP. We need this to break for a stronger pullback.
Looking for 5min 20ma to cross the 60ma on the 5min chart.
EURUSD
The golden cross is on the 60min chart, however we need a stronger pullback into our buy zone before a buying opportunity.
Not overly keen on selling into the DP.
Prefer CABLE as its more overbought.
EURGBP
60min chart has formed a triangle and we are sitting on support as we speak.
If GBP retraces this am across the board, look for support off the 0.9050 level with stop below the 0.9000.
Still short longer term and targeting 0.8500 to begin with.
JPY´s
USDJPY has been the catalyst and broken the 100.00 level.
GBPJPY definitely needs a pullback so lets watch GBP this morning as this market is more overbought than others,
Still targeting 160.00 for longer term book.
Verdict
Retracements only option at the moment.
Not too keen to trade them but lets keep an eye on GBP this am.
Good morning all
Interesting setups today… Markets are overbought or oversold and badly in need of retracements
There were cheeky trades in CABLE, EURUSD & USDCHF.
There was no JPY trade due to USDJPY holding its 70 support level.
Looking at retracements over the next 48 hours.
Dan
Well not a bad day...
Retracments as expected...
See u tom.
D
Hi Dan
I took EURJPY on the 123 on the 15m chart. Across 3 lots I took 50 pips, 73 pips and 42 pips. I should have hung on to the last lot a bit longer using the higher timeframe but was happy with the pips.
Also took USDJPY on the 123 on the 15m chart for 22 pips, 23 pips and 10 pips, although I was late into this trade I am still really chuffed with today's trades.
I'm not very confident at trading retracements yet but did ok today using your 123 strategy.
Thanks
RS
London Open Notes - Tuesday 7th April
Good morning
9.30am GBP Manufacturing Production is only alert you need to be careful of today.
AUS cut Cash Rate from 0.25% down to 3.00% overnight.
CABLE
The expected retracement happened yesterday but not into our buy zone. Will probably need another 24 hours for GBP to position itself again.
WP is offering support at 1.4631 and a break here should signal a further retracement down to the 4hr 50ma at 1.4520 level.
Won’t be looking for any long play until we break and hold the DP
Will be watching closely to see if we can preempt the break of the WP using the 60min 20ma.
EURUSD
Heavy resistance at 1.3575. A break above this resistance line should see a larger move towards MR1 and even MR2.
However the concerns over Europe and the EUR still trouble me and I struggle to buy the EUR aggressively. (Saying that if it breaks we should look for a long!)
60min chart has formed a triangle and we should look for a break.
A break below the MP at 1.3150 will confirm my thoughts on the EUR and its weakness.
EURGBP
Fallen a long way and 0.9030 offering the key support it needs.
Not interested buying into the 4hr 20ma, WP and MP so will wait and look to add to my short on break of the 0.9000 level.
JPYs
The expected retracements happened yesterday.
We are in limbo as they have only retraced 50% of what is expected.
If CABLE and EURUSD fall further expect the JPY pairs to go as well.
Watch USDJPY closely.
Ok retracements have happened and pips made...
Well done team. Must run.
D
PS Meant to say i lost just under 30 pips this morning trying to jump into CABLE before the support. Silly but knew the risk. Managed to make it back and more.
Good evening all
Please remember what stage of the cycle we are in...Its retracement week!!!
Last week everyone made a lot of pips with the main trend...This week we are dealing with retracements (against the main trend) so its going to be slightly more difficult. Please do not forget this and do not take on the difficult trades if you are unsure.
When the retracements are over we will have another cracking week swing trading again. Its all about being patient and waiting for the best setups. You must be relaxed and realise you do not have to trade every second of the day.
See you tomorrow at 6.30am.
D
I was only away for 3 working days and looking at some of the spread moves it could have been 3 weeks. By watching CNN and reading the newspaper coverage on the G20 summit one could sense the optimism in the air and I was not overly surprised by the extent of the rally. One of the positive spins for CIS corporates for the last 9 months or so has been the extremely low probability of any indigestion caused by supply (as spreads were Super wide!). This is no longer the case as spreads have tightened in so much that quasi sov issuance is a distinct possibility in the near future if the rally continues.The big picture hasn't really changed much. The only thing I will concede is that a decent part of this recession has been psychological ie it has been about people's perception of the world as opposed to the reality which has of course made this whole episode that much worse. Amazingly I am now hearing several people talking about buying property in the UK even though prices in some areas are only off by 15% from the peak (offer side). Property in the UK is no where near at the stage it is in the US ie there are huge amounts of foreclosures and forced selling pushing down prices at an alarming rate rather that the drip drip lower we are seeing at the moment. What I am trying to say is that until you see forced selling of an asset class there is no rush to buy it. I don't know if I am losing the plot but every one is banging on about inflation and how prices should rise from here (yes I know central banks are printing money!) but I think prices need to come off further not rally from here. Are you telling me a rubbish frothy coffee is justified to cost £3 (real cost?), or the Ft for £2 (the sun costs 30p and is a happier read!), or 1/2 pint of lager at 8 Euros (I'd rather drink tap water) in a Portuguese golf club. Like it or not prices are still too expensive and as competition increases amongst business fighting for survival prices will have to drop. I could be wrong of course but for that to be the case, we will need to see consumer debt reduction, job creation and property appreciation. Sorry to mention CNBC as I listen to it all day, but talk of a V shaped recovery after the largest debt bubble in history is simply preposterous! Obviously earnings season is upon us, I have already talked about good results from the financials I am not sure the corporates will be as encouraging plus after a 20% plus rally in stocks how much of this good news is in the price? Easter also fast approaching, I expect further position squaring and reduced liquidity the next couple of days.
Mr P....