The London Open - page 150
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Ok i am finshed for the day.
See u all tom.
D
Good morning all
Well a very quiet London Open...The good news is we made between 20 and 25 pips in USDJPY.
Looking for break of majopr resistance now in USDJPY. The JPY weakness is helping EURJPY and GBPJPY but until we get the otherside of retail sales i wont be looking to trade GBP.
Cheers all
D
Most of you are building very well to our 250 pip target.
My wife didnt buy enough shoes this month...Retail Sales in at -1.9%
Yes CABLE fell off a few pips but surprisingly has held up quite well...
What does that tell us??? Maybe how weak the USD is!!!!
Mmmmmmm. Lots to think about.
Mmmm USDJPY is interesting...
Keep an eye me thinks!!!
D
The whole currency market is lost in my opinion...
Geithner, Brown etc could be a little lost me thinks???
I feel like a lost puppy chasing my tail!!!
Yes we can pick up my 25 - 50 pips each day but trying to make sense of the market is another challenge completely...
Do any of these so called financiers have a clue? Have we learnt anything from history?
Mmmmm dont think so!!!
Ok i am off..
See u all tomorrow.
D
I have seen a few rallies in my time on this desk over the past 7 yearshowever today's takes some beating. A liftathon, a grabathon a rampingsession whatever you want to call it. Short story most Russiancorporates were anything between 50 and 150bp tighter on the day, withevery man and his dog looking for bonds. Liquidity is an embarrassmentand the constant tutting from sales people is getting slightly annoying(for them and me). We have now rallied so hard that we are nowapproaching levels where new issuance is a distinct possibility.Opening the new issue floodgates will soon stop this madness and willcheer up sales people not to mention bringing EM syndicate desks backfrom their sabbaticals. For me the market can rally further but as adealer who's pretty flat crossing the Amazon like bid offer spread doesnot make much sense to me so I will attempt to sell what I have leftinto this madness and then disappear on my Easter break. If yourbelieve in the rally then you need to look at underperformers and todayTurkey (new issue perhaps?) was unchanged despite the corporate bid.The big wide world is apparently fine, Gordon and Barack are going toinflate their way out of this mess and therefore EM will benefit. Iobviously don't agree with this however clearly I am not alone. Thestreet (including myself) did not see this rally coming and there is alot of serious pain out there. I would imagine this is the same indeveloped credit markets and equity markets. My point is, that shortsare in pain and either have or will be capitulating very soon. Notonly that, but some people are getting seriously bulled up and arecalling that we have seen the worst and the lows. Once the shorts haveclosed and the longs have been sucked in, the technicals will not lookso pretty. We are not there yet, this rally can continue until afterEaster however we all know the old adage for May and I do not think thisyear will be any different.
Mr P......
Good morning all
Well days like this i wish i had lived in Asia. The perfect setups moved at 5.30am to 6.00am GMT and by the time i came in at 6.20am they had already gone. Huff!!!!
Thats the way it goes and the important lesson is not to jump in and chase trades.
My week started off to be a cracker with Monday and Tuesday up over 100 pips in both. Then Wednesday 50 pips and Thursday only 20 pips in the london open. Today was even worse at 0 pips but happy not to have traded. Yes i could have taken CABLE for 30 to 40 pips as others did but the GOLDEN CROSS on my 4hr chart has got me thinking. Is it a fake out or is CABLE really going to find that needed support? Last one we saw was in July 2008!!!
Looking to get back into GBPJPY and add to my 50% stake as well EURGBP...(Longer Term Book)
Might have this GBP game totally wrong, especially how No 10 and the Bank of England arent exactly helping my cause. Technicals suggest a little strength against the JPY but i need USDJPY to make that challenge back up to the 99.65 level.
See you later.
Dan
London Open Notes - Friday 26th March
Good morning all
Interesting week… The London Open was great on Monday and Tuesday with around 200 to 250 pips in the bank. Since then I have hardly traded… We took 45 on the EURUSD on Wednesday and USDJPY yesterday for 20. That’s been it for me unfortunately. The main thing is we have hit target this we
CABLE
EURGBP is grinding higher again so EURUSD could be a better play.
No long plays until we break and find support off the 4hr and 60min 20ma.
Boxed between the 4hr 50ma and 4hr 20ma so best to wait for break and clearer direction.
Use the 60min 20ma as support or resistance.
EURUSD
As mentioned from last week the market is keen to push EUR higher to the mid 1.4000s and many strike prices are up there
Would like a small retracement onto the 60min 20ma and use the 60min trigger as the next major momentum.
EURGBP
Broken its 1st major resistance level on 60min chart and the EUR is looking strong again.
Wait for next pullback and use the 60min trigger.
The JPYs
USDJPY
Broke the major resistance yesterday on the 4hr chart but has lacked the momentum.
Boxed between the 60min MAs and we need to wait for a break.
If this breaks up above the 98.55 level then we should look for JPY weakness all round
GBPJPY
Looks weak at the moment with a lower high on the 4hr chart.
GBPCHF is weak as well so there is GBP weakness across the board
Look for gap back down to the 4hr 50ma.
What a day!!!
My longer term perspective was affecting my short term direction.
Can´t win them all and still no trades!!!
Feel like a plum by missing the 1st breaks at 5.45am
D