The London Open - page 146
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New York Open - Friday 13th March
Good afternoon all…..
Well well well, another day in pip-paradise but what’s left for us this afternoon??
US trade balance in 15m so be careful but Swiss weakness back on the cards at the moment.
USDJPY-
• Looks like a 15m 123 here with a tight stop below the figure
• Looks sure to test the .65 level but may fall back from there so short opportunity up there as and when it arrives at this destination
GBPJPY-
• Needs to break WP at 138.50 for another push but break of 138.00 might see it push to that level
EURJPY-
• Needs EURUSD to break above 12900 but looks good to go
Verdict……
Waiting for news but only interested in long positions
No levels to watch as such but 15m 123’s look to be on the cards.
Also look out for 123’s on all swiss pairs long.
Will keep you posted
Have a good session.
The second Friday the 13th in a row did not turn out to be unlucky (sofar) as the market feel good factor is still with us. Kazakh bankscontinue to rally with KKB approaching pre Bta and Allibknationalisation levels. Russian corps remain pretty dull with a betterbid bias. As I am writing the market is off its highs, Russia 30shaving rallied 6pts this week are suffering from a bout of profit takingwhich is hardly surprising given the rally these past few days. Its amazing what a rally does to the psyche of market participants asthey highlight the so called green shoots that are out there right now.I will give you a couple being mentioned, Banks having a fantasticquarter and start to the year. Well blow me down with a feather, anupward sloping yield curve, funding rates at zero, bid offer spreadswider than the Amazon and record high grade issuance. Well if bankscan't make money in that environment then we should all give up and goback to farming. My point is of course banks have had a good start tothe year (as I have mentioned already this year) and this is a positive.The negative is that they are still sitting on far too much toxic cr*pin an environment where default rates continue to rise to potentiallyhistorically high levels that will clearly hit the banks later on thisyear. Other green shoots are increased lending and commodity pricescreeping back up. Don't get me wrong I love a rallying market and I amnot saying this rally is over (and I hope its not) it just makes mechuckle how quickly all the sheep change their views from being suicidalto thinking about ordering a new 911! All eyes on the G20 financeministers meeting this weekend, can they get blood out of a stone, canthey avoid protectionism, we will find out by Monday. Enjoy the w/eall!
Mr P......
Evening all
Amazing how quickly the weekends go by...
It was a tough mid week last week but looking forward to the London Open tom am.
See you all at 6.45am and lets have a cracking week.
250 pips is our target and lets get there as a team.
D
London Open Notes - Monday 16th March
Good morning
Trust you all had a good weekend.
CABLE
GBP has recovered a little from its lows and we could see a Golden Cross on our 60min chart today signaling GBP strength.
Heavy resistance with the Daily 20ma just above at 1.4105.
Look for the cross to happen and then support off it before any long plays.
If the Daily 20ma holds as resistance then we should look for the break back below the WP and MS1 at the 1.3900 level.
Patience required and wait for a confirmed support.
EURUSD
Keep an eye on the 4 hour chart. Look for the Golden Cross with the Daily 20ma and 50ma.
Resistance with the Daily 50ma and DR2 at 1.2950.
The 4hr 20ma is holding as support so any break through here would see weakness down to the MP.
The 15min chart is showing small signs of support above the DP and 60min 20ma with stop behind.
The EUR is in a period of support and if the 4hr chart gets that confirmed Golden Cross then look for continued EUR strength.
It needs to break the 50ma but there is signs of strength here
EURGBP
Needs a pullback but with EUR strength across the board the pullback isn’t really happening
If EUR strengthens this am I wont be looking at any long plays until we see a break back above the DP and 60min 50ma.
Verdict – Stay away for now and until we get this break back above the resistance
Verdict
CABLE – Boxed lets wait for break
EURUSD – Daily 50ma is heavy resistance but signs of EUR strengt
EURGBP – Patience here
Good afternoon all
An interesting day..As expected CABLE and EUR were going to find strength but the question this morning was all about entry points.
Many missed the entry this am unless u went long at 6.15am or 6.30am. The usual suspects made 100 or so pips however as per usual by the time 7.00am came the currencies had just moved those extra few pips to make it more risky which means stops had to be widened.
My lesson learnt today is dont be too hesitant with the newbies, place the trade and keep a tight stop below previous candle.
However the afternoon was awesome. Many went short CABLE and GBPJPY for between 50 - 100 pips so happy days. Zak mentored them like a true professional. Very controlled and a slow grind lower.
Well done team and excellent day overall.
See u tom.
Dan
Nothing new came out over the weekend's summit aside from the fact weshould all work this out together and be one happy family. I had adream last night (I know I need to get a life!) about a British companyonly contracting out work to other British firms. What my dream wastrying to tell me is that everyone will smile and come out with somenice sound bites however when they go back home they are still going tolook after number 1! The more I think about the market the more I hate being consensus.Consensus at the moment is that this is a bear market rally that couldlast not just days but several weeks or months. The consensus positionswere long CDS and long some liquid cash bonds. Well funnily enough cashis underperforming the CDS that is gapping tighter. Turkey is a goodexample of the market psyche at the moment, locals were no where to beseen 10 days ago and cash buyers non existent however after a 10 ptrally I am now starting to see buyers of Turkey cash again plus the CDSis 100bp tighter in a week. Where were you 10 points ago I ask? I fearthis is a classic top and tail trade thus making the exposure to a selloff even worse as everyone has for one reason or another taken off theirTexas hedge trade and others actually gone long. The short story isthat if you are positioned and doing the same trade as everyone else atthe moment you should ask yourself has this strategy worked over thepast 18 months and why should this time be any different? Flow on the desk was pretty striking, ie 80% of flow was biased toselling cash, despite the feel good factor in stocks this has not beenpassed onto EM corps that remain fair value and illiquid (althoughbetter than 2 weeks ago) in my view. The consensus rally is here tostay until all the shorts have closed, accounts are long and theneveryone realises nothing has changed and we are still in a mighty deephole without a ladder.
Mr P.....
London Open Notes - Tuesday 17th March
Good morning London
I trust you are all well…Early notes as couldn’t sleep last nigh
Well traded yesterday and a very controlled afternoon session, with many of you trading CABLE and GBPJPY on the pullback to the 60min 20ma. Let’s look to build from that session and make a few pips this morning
Interesting how USDJPY has flat lined since yesterday. The 4hr 20ma is trying to hold as support but we really need that Golden Cross for some strength back into the market and a break back above the 65 level. It is very minimal risk for a long play with a tight stop below 98.10.
CABLE
Sitting on the Daily 20ma with the 4hr 20ma as true support on the 60min chart.
The Golden Cross happened overnight on the 60min chart so lets look for support off this cross if it can hold.
Look for the DP at 1.4075 to hold as immediate support.
1st resistance is 1.4135 and then 1.4240.
Will be looking for buying opportunities above the DP to the resistance levels with stops below the DP.
EURUSD
The trend is moving up and we should be looking for buying opportunities above the DP.
Do remember how far the EUR has come from the 1.2450 low, so be aware of any pullbacks. As long as we stay above the DP then remain looking for long plays.
Any stop needs to be behind the DP at 1.2970 level.
EURGBP
Support on the DP at 0.9200.
Any break below here would see a move to the WP at 0.9164.
Resistance on the 60min 50ma so any break back above 0.9225/30 would see strength back in the EUR.
Wait for break of DP or 0.9225
New York Open Notes - Tuesday 17th March
Good afternoon all….
Building Permits and PPI out shortly so best to close trades prior to that.
USDJPY-
•I am a little undecided about this pair at the minute and although it looks quite good to move up again it’s a matter of timing
•Possible double top on 15m so not looking for position here just yet
GBPJPY-
•Looks weak again so slightly confused with USDJPY holding up
•A break below 137.80 should see this lower IF USDJPY fails to hold along with CableEURJPY
•Also looking weak below 127.80
•Watch for EURUSD to fall as well
Verdict….
EURCHF looks like it’s finally going to fall down a bit having had a big run which has slowed waiting for 123 on 15m chart.Yens are confusing at the moment so leaving them alone
Afternoon all
Not a bad day here and been long of USDJPY and EURGBP.
Nothing flash but 2 nice breakouts.
Some good pips today by you all so well done.
See u tom am. Remember i will be in by 6.30am GMT and will do the live morning analysis for you all.
Dan
Well the good news is that the buyers have returned and dipped theirtoes in a few Russian corporates today pushing spreads a tad tighter vsthe sovereign. One thing that is evident over the past 10 days priceaction is that CDS was mispriced and not the cash as the bid in CDS(particularly in the front end) is disappearing pretty quickly. Jump todefault guys have bought what they needed, loan guys have hedged,correlation desks the same and prop desks (the ones still alive) arelong already. The obvious question is, who is going to buy it to pushit wider from current levels?The general market still feels ok and everyone is calling the end of thecrisis, the return of inflation etc. Well all I can say is I hope theyare right and I am wrong. Lots of rhetoric on credit card companiesthese past 24 hours. In my view these guys have been nearly asirresponsible as the banks. Literally throwing money at the guys on lowincomes to fund their Hello magazine lifestyles. Well how else didpeople afford to drive a nice car, buy a Gucci handbag for their missus,have a holiday in Dubai and go out to eat 3 times a week at Nobu.Unfortunately the party has stopped Paris Hilton's mates have lost theirjobs and obviously with no savings, car loans, credit cards and themortgage are now prime for a default. This phenomenon is not going togo away anytime soon and with that backdrop I can't join the greenshoots club just yet. This time last year Bear Stearns had blown up and we all thought it wasthe end of the world. We then had a pretty impressive 6 week head fakerally. I really hope lightning strikes twice and we can enjoy a Springrally, sell when you can not when you have to!
Mr P......