The London Open - page 141
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Good morning
No trades for moi...James took GOLD and USDCAD for a few cheeky pips and Zak took USDJPY but closed for 1 pip. Good to see some of u hold USDJPY for 20 to 25 pips.
Difficult am to get head around GBP and EUR movement and patience needed.
Will wait for correlation to agree across the board before i trade.
Cheers
D
Beware the ides of March and all that! The moment I got constructive onthe market on Friday it was bound to sell off, that will teach me! I amnot entirely sure what put the skids up the market this time whether itbe another huge bail out for AIG, a shambles of a G20 summit or arealisation by investors that the end is nigh. As always I was thinkingabout life and this credit crunch in depth over the weekend and I keepcoming to the same conclusion. Savings rates have to increasedramatically, we the consumer, and particularly the US consumer andgovernment cannot continue to be funded by the Chinese, debt cannot berolled over forever and at some stage needs to be repaid. People areall concerned about the pension time bomb, the solution is simple. Wehave to stick a hell of a lot more in our pensions otherwise ourchildren and grandchildren will want to have us put down as they willrefuse to look after us physically and financially. More in our pensionfunds means a lot less in our pay packets, corporate profits down andconsumers saving more and spending a lot less and we all know what thatmeans for growth going forward. What worries me is that our futures,our children's future are in the hands of politicians that think the wayto get out of a debt bubble is to spend even more. These are ultimatelythe same people who did not police this situation, allowed AIG amongstothers to lose astronomical amounts of money and then bail them out atthe end (US tax payer is on the hook for $160bn plus so far!).Whichever way I look at it the future doesn't look so bright. All thatsaid the market is not going to go down in a straight line, maybe thegovernments beats the demons of deflation with moneyprinting/quantitative easing and creates inflation that is good for EMand certainly the lesser of the two evils, only time will tell. For the record not a great deal going on in my world, market was widerand there are bonds for sale particularly in the Steel sector however atthe moment there is no sense of panic out there, yet! I will repeatwhat I have said on several occasions lately, EM at these levels doesnot look like an attractive asset class (aside from the odd specialsituation) and I am thinking on this occasion EM is not ahead of thecurve.
Mr P.......
New York Open Notes - Tuesday 3rd March
Good afternoon all. I trust you have all had a good morning.
USDJPY looking pretty good to the upside again and giving some updraft to GBPJPY and EURJPY, the latter mentioned earlier on the videos as a good looking bet after a 60m 123
Anyway onto this afternoon’s session…..
USDJPY
• looks to be targeting previous highs at 98.11 then 98.67.
• be careful at the 98.11 level with Mr Bernanke speaking a little later
• needs a small retracement on 15m chart now with 20/50 needing to show signs of support
GBPJPY
• Looks good again above 13800
• Needing to see sterling confirming this move so the pound needs to break up above the pivot vs the dollar at 14100 to tempt me into a position
EURJPY
• A little bounce off the crossing 60m 20&50 paved the way for a relatively easy 50 or so pips with the ‘kiss’ technique this morning
• Needs EURUSD to help further gains so be very careful at 12400
• Look how perfect the 123 on the 60m chart was. It’s textbook stuff so learn it well
VERDICT……….
All Yen pairs looking very strong again now so once again not looking for short positions.
5m/15m continuation plays preferred. Just need to be patient and wait for good, low-risk entries
Have a good afternoon
Zak
GOLD , AUDUSD, USDCAD NY PM - Tuesday 3rd March
Good Afternoon all,
GOLD:
• Currently setup into a perfect triangle.
• A break to the upside would be limited with the 60 Min 20 MA just above
o If we do see a move through the 60 Minute 20 MA we will look for a 123 off this.
• A break to the downside could signal a move back down to the 4hourly 50 MA that we have been looking for.
o Key level 920.50
AUDUSD:
• Sadly the 123 I was looking for this morning on the 4hourly 20 has come and gone. I missed this one too.
• If there is a retracement I will be looking for support from the WP and the triggers to line up.
• If these are not in place I will not trade.
USDCAD:
• After a slow start this morning which gave us a few small pips, Cad came to retest the daily high and failed to break.
• This should help us to the downside and I will look for a 123 off the 60 min 20MA for an further play down.
James
London Open Notes - Wednesday 4th March
Good morning
Its mid week and I keen for more pips. I didn’t trade yesterday for numerous reasons so I am in the hunt toda
CABLE
The downward trend continues with USD strength across the board at the moment.
1.3980 is yesterdays low and watch break of here.
Remember to watch GBPJPY for help in direction with GBP. Any break above 138.25/30 would signal GBP strength.
If GBPJPY powers up with USDJPY and EURJPY then watch break back above the 60min 20ma in CABLE.
Verdict difficult to trade unless GBPJPY falls and we break previous low.
EURUSD
The downward trend continues with USD strength across the board.
1.2500 has been tested and broken.
Use the 4hr 20ma to your advantage here as immediate term needs a pullback.
EURJPY is trying to pop up so EURUSD should pullback to the 60min 20ma.
Verdict difficult to trade on the pullback. Tight stops needed.
EURGBP
EURGBP has been a tough one to trade.
60min chart showing signs of support with trend line at 0.8880.
However 15min chart shows Golden Cross for south side.
Yes could look for short play if GBPJPY and CABLE move higher with tight stop above the 60min 50ma around the 0.8940 level.
To be honest its not great but it is limited downside risk of 20 pips on 15min chart.
Verdict
Tough on my side…Will watch JPY´s closely this am
Dan
GOLD , AUDUSD , USDCAD - Wednesday 4th March
Morning All,
Great day for trading Gold yesterday now back around 900 we will start to assess the long term potentials again.
GOLD:
• Great break of the 920.50 level last night saw us pulling back towards the 4 hourly 50 ma
• We still have roughly another $12 down to this level.
• On a 15 minute chart I would be looking for a break of the previous low (911.50) or a retracement into the 60 minute 20 ma before another push down.
• As we all know if the 60 min 20 ma is broken then 123’s will be what we are looking for
AUDUSD:
• 100% retracement of the interest rate bounce
• Looking for a move back into the longer term MA’s before any position will be considered.
• I am looking for this to come back towards 0.6360 before failing to break the 60 min 20 MA.
• Around these levels I will then look for resistance and the triggers to start falling into place.
USDCAD:
• 1 Hourly chart looks massively over bought and we are right on the daily resistance.
• The fan of MA’s is spread well and a retracement could well be on the cards with a break of the 60 minute 20 MA (15min Chart)
• Support on the 60 Minute 20 may also give a short term move back up to the daily resistance which is only 20/30 pips away.
I will keep you updated have a great morning.
James
Today is a significant date in the diary, after about 6 months ofconstant growth I am having my hair cut much to the pleasure of workcolleagues who think I look like Chris Waddle from 1990. Unfortunatelymy hair has been the only thing growing of late as the doom and gloomcontinues to engulf us. Watching Ben getting a grilling on Capitol hillI do feel a tad sorry for him. I mean he didn't cut rates to 1% in 02,he didn't singlehanded sell a load of teeny equivalent options at AIGand cause its downfall, give the guy a break, he is merely picking upthe pieces of everyone else's jigsaw and at the moment he can't evenfind the edges to it let alone the middle parts. EM is slowly waking upand smelling the espresso, cash is coming out and if it wasn't for therandom local bids this stuff could really gap lower as traditional realmoney buying is almost non existent. I do have some good news inKazakhstan where bids are returning in Bta, Allibk and KKB and it feelsas though the margin sellers are out for now. That is the only piece ofgood news the bad new is relentless and the lack of bounce for the stockmarket is getting a little worrying. Its NFP on Friday for the sake ofthe market and our sanity I hope its not as ugly as the doom mongers areforecasting. Maybe my haircut will be the turning point!
Mr P......
Hi all
Quite a good am but could have been better.
Hope you are all liking the notes?
D
NewYork Open Notes - Wednesday 4th March
Good afternoon all…..
Well, another great morning on the Yen pairs with 400 possible pips from the 3 pairs I focus on and 200 had you just taken the pairs from the ‘verdict’ section.
If you are new & don’t follow the notes or understand them then just pay attention to the ‘verdict’ until you are singing from the same hymn-sheet.
This afternoon sees ADP non-farm and ISM non-manufacturing numbers.
The former being in 15 mins.
Will this see USDJPY upto 100.00 or back to 97.00 ?
Obviously if numbers are not as bad as expected then we ought to see some USD strength and the 100.00 getting hit quite possibly but we are overbought.
USDJPY-
• Overbought
• Would like to see double top at 99.50 then a possible short opportunity
• A fall below 99.15 would confirm so watch for this essential level
EURJPY-
• Currently at resistance at 124.70 so pullback possible
• No current potential long entry until then
• Short position preferred if USDJPY stops
GBPJPY-
• Longer term long position fancied IF 141.00 gets taken out with target some 2500 (yes two thousand five hundred) higher should it go
• Fully aware of dangers with averages still so far from that level so waiting to short up there and playing pullback
VERDICT:-
With everything so overbought do we risk a couple of this mornings pips looking for reversals?
Subject to the news that’s what I am looking for but only on USDJPY as it’s minimum risk
Other than that we must wait for the pullbacks to happen and sit on the fence.
Have a good afternoon
Zak
CABLE JPY Notes - Wednesday 4th March
Good afternoon
GBPJPY looks very interesting on the Daily chart. Compare that to USDJPY on the Daily chart and it gives you a perspective of what could happen.
CABLE
• Tucked in below the 4hr 20ma and DR1 at 1.4125 level.
• Golden cross is happening.
• I believe a few of you are long from 75 level which is great to see with stop below the DP and 60min 20ma at 1.4050.
• It’s a small risk for potential on some good upside if it can break the 4hr 20ma.
• Watch GBPJPY for help with GBP trend.
EURUSD
• Broken the 60min 20ma and with EURJPY looking strong EURUSD should test the DP and beyond.
• The break of DP is key. Keep a tight stop below the 60min 20ma.
EURGBP
• With EURUSD and GBPUSD both looking strong at present EURGBP will be hard to trade.
• I prefer GBP higher so I expect EURGBP to weaken.
• Boxed between the 4hr 50ma and 20ma.
• 15min chart shows a potential short with a tight stop above the 0.8925 level.
Verdict
Watch EURUSD and CABLE break their respective levels.
AUDUSD
• Watch USD trend across the board.
• If EURUSD and CABLE can break their respective resistance levels then AUDUSD will hold.
• 60min chart looks heavy but 15min chart showing support.
• Any break back below the 60min 20ma should see an opportunity for a short.
• Patience for now.
USDCAD
• Look for Golden Cross on 60min chart.
• If CABLE can break the 4hr 20ma then USDCAD will be off with USD weakness.
• The risk is limited with any stop above the WR1 at 1.2935 level.
Dan