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AUD/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the USD. Today, the pair was able to overcome resistance level at the upper limit of the trading channel and consolidated at the level of 0.9068. Although technical indicators show that the AUD is in the uptrend, fundamental data does not encourage the growth. Unemployment rate in the country has reached record high of 6%. Such large companies as Toyota and General Motors are planning to reduce jobs at their plants, since strong national currency has a negative impact on the price of the final product, reducing its appeal to the international market. Amid negative data on the labour market, Central Bank of Australia is unlikely to raise interest rate in the near future. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is the local highs of 0.9085. Support level is the limit of the trading channel (0.9034). Trading tips It is advisable to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 0.9030 with protective orders at 0.9054 and a target of 0.8880.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: long correction can turn into downtrend Current trend Following rapid rise of the previous week, the pair GBP/USD reversed and sharply went down, losing over 100 points this Monday. The decline was provoked by numerous profit- taking orders of the “bulls.” Demand for the overbought Pound significantly dropped and many traders open short positions in anticipation of the downward correction. Today, some important British macro-economic statistics will be released. Forecast for it is negative. According to statistical agencies, retail sales in January will drop by 0.5%, consumer price index for the same period will fall by 0.6%. Important American economic news is not expected today. Support and resistance It is likely that the pair GBP/USD will sharply go down, probably up to support level of 1.6660. in future downward movement may continue towards the target of 1.6540 (Fibonacci line 50%) From this level uptrend may resume or probably the pair will experience minor upward correction, after which downtrend can continue. Support levels: 1.6660, 1.6600, 1.6540, 1.6470 and 1.6400. Resistance levels: 1.6740, 1.6810 and 1.6900. Trading tips It makes sense to place pending sell orders below key support level of 1.6660 with profit taking at the level of 1.6540.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
NZD/USD: technical analysis Current trend At the beginning of this week the pair had reached the local highs and after that started to decline. The pair NZD/USD reached the level of 0.8280, but failed to break it down. The level of 0.8280 coincides with the line 61.8% Fibonacci, being a strong support level. “Bears” will need additional momentum to overcome this level. It is likely that the pair will return to the level of 0.8390. Technical indicators give mixed signals. MACD histogram has crossed the zero line from top to bottom, forming a sell signal, while Stochastic lines have crossed in the oversold zone and are rising. Support and resistance Support levels are 0.8300 and 0.8280; the latter one is the main target of the “bears”. Resistance levels are 0.8335, 0.8360 and 0.8390. Trading tips The pair is likely to continue growth. Long positions are recommended with the target of 0.8390. Limit sell orders can be placed at the same level.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: euro needs strong growth catalyst Current trend On Tuesday the pair EUR/USD continued to grow amid weakening of the USD. Despite the fact that investors were disappointed by ZEW indices in Germany and Eurozone, the pair went up to the level of 1.3770 after publication of negative macro-economic US data. Construction sector statistics of Europe will be released today; construction indices have remained negative for a few months. Producer price index in the USA will also become known. European positive sentiment, raised by acceleration of economic growth rate in European countries, is fading away. Demand for Euro is decreasing and the pair slows down upward movement. America‘s macro-economic statistics is not encouraging either. The USD is significantly weakening against major currencies. Support and resistance The pair is likely to test local highs of 1.3770 again; however further upward movement is unlikely. The pair is expected to move in the sideways in the wide range of 1.3830-1.3630. Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3630 and 1.3600. Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3900 and 1.4000. Trading tips It is recommended to place pending orders to buy from support level of 1.3630 with profit taking at the level of 1.3830.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: Pound is ready to decline, while the USD is still weak Current trend The pair cannot determine further movement direction for a few days. GBP/USD several times tried to break down key support level of 1.6660, but did not succeed. British currency is significantly overbought and weak economic British data negatively affects Pound. Yesterday, following the news that unemployment rate in the UK rose, the pair fell reaching the level of 1.6660, after which the pair went up again. Downward movement does not persist only for one reason: weak dollar, which is in the low demand among investors, continues to decline amid negative US statistics. Important British economic news is not scheduled for release today. At the same time, U.S. data on initial applications for unemployment benefits, consumer price index and business activity index will be known. Support and resistance In order to break down key support level of 1.6660 the USD needs support of the strong American statistics. Favourable data on initial applications for unemployment benefits can act as such catalyst. If it happens, the pair will go to 1.6540. In the medium-term the pair will try to reach the level of 1.6250. Support levels: 1.6660, 1.6600, 1.6540 and 1.6470. Resistance levels: 1.6740, 1.6810 and 1.6900. Trading tips It is recommended to place pending short positions below the level of 1.6650 with profit taking at the levels of 1.6540 and 1.6400.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAG/USD XAG/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are getting closer. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. After a long rise the pair is being corrected. Tenkan-sen (21.33) and Kijun-sen (21.66) lines have become support and resistance levels respectively.
XAG/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line at 20.94. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is going to be a resistance level at 22.73.
Key levels Support levels: 21.33, 20.94. Resistance levels: 21.66, 22.73. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the pair is being corrected, however daily chart confirms the continuation of upward trend. Target for the long positions is 22.73. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: Euro continues to weaken Current trend On Thursday the pair EUR/USD was under strong pressure from fundamental facts. Following the release of negative preliminary data on business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Eurozone, exchange rate of the pair has lost over 100 points and reached support level of 1.3685. Volume of industrial output in large European countries has dropped: in Germany business activity index fell to 54.7 points, in France the same index fell to 48.5 points, which is below the threshold. European index fell from 54 to 53 points. However, in the evening the pair corrected and regained some of the losses, reaching the level of 1.3727. Correction was triggered by negative statistics from the USA. It became known that business activity index in Philadelphia fell to -6.3 points. Today, movement in the pair can be affected by the speech of James Bullard. It is assumed that the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can announce new performance targets for changes in the country’ monetary policy. Support and resistance At the moment the price of the pair resumed downward movement, trying to reach the level of 1.3685 (lower line of indicator “Bollinger bands”). Breakdown of this level will enable the pair to go down to the levels of 1.3665 and 1.3685. In case of different situation, the price can return to the level of 1.3730 (middle line of Bollinger bands). MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed upwards. Trading tips In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions. Pending orders to buy can be placed at the level of 1.3685 with profit taking at the level of 1.3730.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/CHF: general analysis Current trend American dollar continues to decline against Swiss Franc. However, as soon as the pair reached the lower limit of the trading channel at the level of 0.8855, the decline slowed down and the USD managed to regain some of the losses. Some support to the pair was provided the rise in the index of leading indicator (+0.3% in January). The rise in the index is associated with gradual recovery of the American economy and the rise in price of real estate. Attention today shall be focused on the US news, among which will be the data on sales of secondary housing markets. If changes in the index will amount to -4.3%, positions of the American dollar can significantly falter. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is the middle limit of the trading channel (0.8950). Support level is 0.8856 (lower limit of the trading channel). Trading tips It is advisable to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 0.8950 with protective orders at 0.8925 and a target of 0.9019.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: downtrend is going to strengthen Current trend As expected, the pair GBP/USD is gradually declining. Weak British statistics is putting pressure on the pair. It became known that retail sales for January fell to 1.5%. At the moment British currency is trading at the key level of 1.6660 against American dollar. Today’s economic calendar is uneventful; therefore high volatility is not expected. The pair is likely to continue trade in the narrow channel of 1.6660-1.6600. Later, downward movement can continue with the target of 1.6250. On Wednesday, British GDP for Q4 last year will be released. If economic growth rate goes down, the pair is likely to go down. Support and resistance On medium-term the pair will continue to go down to the key resistance level of 1.6540 (Fibonacci line 50%). If demand continues to decrease, and statistics remains negative, the pair will go to the level of 1.6250 (local lows). Support levels: 1.6600, 1.6540 and 1.6470. Resistance levels: 1.6660, 1.6740, 1.6810 and 1.6900. Trading tips It is recommended to place pending short positions below the level of 1.6600 with profit taking at the level of 1.6540.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/CAD: general review Current trend Last week the pair USD/CAD managed to go up to the local highs of 1.1190; however following the release of Canadian and American macro-statistics, the USD/CAD rate slightly dropped. As it became known consumer price index of Canada rose by 0.3% in January, while sales in the secondary housing market in the USA amounted to 4.62 million, which is 0.25 million less than previous value. Today’s economic calendar is almost empty. Technical analysis of the movement direction in the pair USD/CAD shows the following: on the four-hour chart technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger bands are converging, demonstrating uncertainty in the market. It seems that investors need strong macro-economic guides in order to determine dynamics in the pair USD/CD. MACD histogram is above the zero line; however its volumes are decreasing. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 1.1140 and 1.1190. Support levels: 1.1100 and 1.1065. Trading tips Orders to sell can be placed after breakdown of the level of 1.1100 with the target of 1.1065. Pending orders to buy are recommended at the level of 1.1050.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies