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AUD/USD: General analysis Current trend The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the American dollar. At the moment the AUD has reached the upper limit of the trading channel at the level of 0.9086. if this level is broken down, the rise may reach the level of 0.9150. Australian authorities continue to fight against budget deficit in the country. Government has sold debt securities for the amount of 7 billion AUD with 12 years maturity and the yield of 4.27%. According to preliminary assessment, budget deficit may reach 47 billion AUD; therefore, monetary authorities shall seek additional funding. Analysts believe that due to slowdown in economic growth rate, Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rate unchanged. Interest rate can be raised not earlier than 2015. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is 0.9086 – the upper The nearest support level is 0.8943- lower limit of the trading channel. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 0.9086 with protective order at 0.9045 and a target of 0.9150.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: Analysis and forecast Current trend On Monday afternoon the bulls managed to raise quotes of the pair EUR/USD above resistance level of 1.3915. Next target of the ascending movement is the level of 1.3935. Bad reporting from Europe and positive US statistics failed to decrease investors’ interest to Euro. Consumer price index in Eurozone fell by 0.1% against the previous value, to the level of 07% on annual basis. Therefore, inflation rate is far from the target level of 2%, set by ECB. Volume of US industrial output has increased by 0.6% in February against expectation of 0.1%. Capacity utilization also increased to the level of 78.8% against prediction of 78.6%. Investors are waiting for the US fundamental news, which will be released on Wednesday: payment balance for Q4 last year and key interest rate. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 1.3935, 1.3965 and 1.4000. Support levels: 1.3915, 1.3880 and 1.3845. On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed sideways, indicating the lull in the market. MACD histogram is above the zero line, its volumes are decreasing; therefore it is too early to expect the formation of downtrend. Trading tips Buy positions are recommended after breakdown of the level of 1.3935 with the nearest target of 1.3965. If this level is broken down, the pair will be able to go up to strong resistance level of 1.4000. In case of downtrend sell positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 1.3880 with the nearest target of 1.3845.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
XAU/USD: Analysis and forecast Current trend Gold has always been a safe haven for investors; that’s why they tried to buy this metal amid situation in Crimea. Investors’ activity provided support to gold. Following the referendum the situation has calmed down a little, as reaction of EU and the USA was more moderate than expected. Due to uncertainty investors closed down part of long positions, which led to decline in gold quotes. At the opening session on Monday the price of gold had reached autumn highs of 1390.00, and after that the price went down. Investors will wait for the monetary policy decisions by US Fed. The latest American data has not been too favourable’ however it is expected that US Fed will still reduce volume of bond purchase for another 10 billion USD, which will not add much pressure on the precious metals. Support and resistance At the moment the price is moving near the level of 1360.00, which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci. If this level is broken down, the price will go down to support levels of 1354.00, 1350.00 and 1345.00. Resistance levels: 1362.00, 1369.00 1375.00 and 1385.00. Trading tips It is advisable to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1360.00, with taking profit at 1340.00. Long positions can be opened above the level of 1369.00.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBP/USD GBP/USD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the price is stuck between them. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from below; current cloud is descending. The pair has slowed down and been corrected above Tenkan-sen line, which becomes the closest support level (1.6596). Resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 1.6631.
GBP/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are getting closer prior to the trend reversal pattern formation. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart; current cloud is still ascending. The pair has broken down Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the latter becomes a resistance level (1.6624). The upper border of the cloud is the next support level (1.6462).
Key levels Support levels: 1.6596, 1.6462. Resistance levels: 1.6631, 1.6624. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see a correction of the downward movement, on the daily one — the beginning of the trend reversal. Further movement of the price will be determined by the breakdown of one of the levels: Tenkan-sen (1.6596) or Kijun-sen (1.6631). Target for the pending sell orders is 1.6462. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/CHF: General analysis Current trend Swiss Franc continues to strengthen against the USD. One of the reasons of decline in the pair is instability in the political situation of Ukraine and possibility of sanctions, which the US and EC threat to take against Russia. Nevertheless, situation can change dramatically as soon as US monetary authorities will tighten monetary policy and raise interest rate. Such decision will help the USD regain losses and go up against world currencies. Support and resistance In the current situation support level is 0.8700; if this level is broken down, Swiss France will continue to strengthen. The nearest resistance level is the upper limit of the trading channel - 0.8768. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 0.8768 with protective order at 0.8740 and a target of 0.8875.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: the pair is still in the uptrend Current trend Yesterday before announcement of the outcome of the meeting of US Fed the pair traded with low volatility. Meeting results have been predictable. Janet Yellen adheres to the existing policy of phasing out QE3 program. This news provided support to the USD and the pair fell to the key support level of 1.3830. Nevertheless, despite considerable decline the pair EUR/USD continues to trade in the uptrend. Speeches of Mario Draghi, chairman of ECB and US labour market data will be known today. Support and resistance The pair has reached the bottom limit of the ascending channel (1.3830) and now may experience correction up to the level of 1.4000. Although minimization of QE3 program continues, US statistics is not encouraging. On the other hand, European economy is growing although the risk of decline in investors’ demand remains because of the fact that Euro is significantly overbought. Support levels: 1.3830, 1.3720, 1.3650 and 1.3470. Resistance levels: 1.3950, 1.4000 and 1.4120. Trading tips It is recommended to lace buy orders with profit taking at the level of 1.4000. Short pending positions can be opened from the levels of 1.4000 and 1.4120 with the target of 1.3900 and a short stop-loss.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAG/USD XAG/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair has broken down the cloud and is still falling. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 20.71. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 20.45.
XAG/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are crossing above the cloud, giving a signal to sell. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from above; current cloud is still ascending. The pair has broken down Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the latter becomes a resistance level (21.12). The upper border of the cloud is the next support level (19.76).
Key levels Support levels: 20.45, 19.76. Resistance levels: 20.71, 21.12. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the pair has broken down the cloud, giving a strong signal to sell. On the daily chart we can see the beginning of the trend reversal. Targets for the short positions are 20.45 and 19.76. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: Demand for the USD is increasing. The question is how long for? Current trend Increasing demand for American currency amid next stage of curtailing QE3 program in the USA has been putting pressure on the pair. Over the last few days the Pound has lost more than 200 points. On Thursday bears continued to keep the pair under pressure and the pair consolidated at the support level of 1.6470. The pair is also affected by continuing reduction of the volume of assets purchase in the USA, which takes place despite weak labour market statistics Today the data on net lending in the British public sector will become known; while US news is not scheduled for release. Therefore, investors’ sentiments will cause changes in the pair. Support and resistance Given significant rise of the American currency and the fact that the Pound is overbought, we expect that the pair will continue downward movement. Now we can see that the pair has reached the bottom limit of the downward channel and the key support level of 1.6470 (local highs of December 2013). From this level the pair may experience to resistance level of 1.6570. After that the price may fall to the target of 1.6350. Support levels: 1.6470, 1.6350 and 1.6300. Resistance levels: 1.6570, 1.6600, 1.6660, 1.6700 and 1.6740. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open pending sell positions at the level of 1.6570 (1.6600) with profit taking at the level of 1.6350.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Brent: Introduction of sanctions has led to the rise in oil prices Current trend On Thursday, following long-lasting decline the price crude oil Brent has corrected upward. The rise was caused by the fact that Russia and the USA exchanged sanctions against senior officials, their accounts will be frozen and access to their property will be blocked. Investors fear further aggravation and reformation of the tension into the trade warfare, which threatens to cause serious economic losses in the world economy in general. The price has gained over 150 points and reached resistance level of 106.97, however was not able to exceed it. In the near future quotes of Brent will remain under influence of foreign policy around Crimea. A lot will depend on whether the USA dares to start selling strategic oil reserves in order to reduce dependence of EU on Russian supplies. Support and resistance At the moment the pair is trying to go above the level of 106.97 (the upper moving average line of Bollinger bands indicator.) Breakdown of this level will allow the price to grow to 107.35, 107.70, 108.15 and 108.45 (38.2% Fibonacci). In case of opposite situation the price may correct to 106.35 (moving average line of Bollinger bands, 23.6% Fibonacci). Trading tips In the current situation long positions with the target of 108.45 can be opened if the price breaks down the level of 106.97. Short positions with profit taking at the level of 106.35 can be opened if the price falls below the level of 106.80.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/JPY: analysis and forecast Current trend The pair USD/JPY is rising after last week fall, which was determined by the conflict between Russian and USA. The Dollar is supported by the FRS decision to reduce QE3 program once more. From the other hand Yen is weakened by soft monetary policy of BOJ. Japanese regulator won’t change the interest rates unless inflation rate is 2%. Economic calendar is almost empty today, so we’re going to use technical indicators for the forecasts. On the four-hour chart we’ve got a signal to buy. Bollinger Bands show a divergence, MACD histogram is in positive zone, its volumes are increasing. Support and resistance Support levels: 102.60, 103.00, 103.40. Resistance levels: 102.00, 101.55, 101.20. Trading tips Long trades can be opened above 102.60 with target at 103.00. The breakdown of 103.00 will allow the pair to reach the level of 103.40.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies