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Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 3-7.03.2014
Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site Forex Trading : Top Forex Broker : LiteForex
GBP/USD: Pound regains its losses Current trend On Monday the pair GBP/USD traded with low volatility. British data on mortgage lending and manufacturing activity index had not affected exchange rate of the national currency. However, strong data on US business activity index added momentum to American currency and the pair GBP/USD went down to support level of 1.6660. Today, British currency has started to regain losses and the pair GBP/USD is trading at the level of 1.6690. However, demand for American currency is gradually increasing due to the positive data from manufacturing sector and the rise in consumer confidence index. The data on business activity index in the British construction sector will be of interest today. If this index justifies negative expectations, the pair will continue to decline. Support and resistance In the medium-term the pair GBP/USD will move in the upward channel, but it will be difficult for the pair to reach local highs. It is likely that following the rise to the key resistance level of 1.6810 the pair will decline to the strong support level of 1.6540. Support levels: 1.6660, 1.6600, 1.6540, 1.6470 and 1.6400. Resistance levels: 1.6730, 1.6810 and 1.6900. Trading tips It is recommended to open pending short positions from resistance levels of 1.6730 and 1.6810 with profit taking at the level of 1.6490.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/CHF: analysis and forecast Current trend On Monday currency pair USD/CHF corrected after significant decline last Friday caused by positive European statistics and negative preliminary data on the US GDP for Q4 last year. GDP fell to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.6%. In the result the pair lost over 100 points and reached the lows since 2011 at the level of 0.8776. Support and resistance Correction in the pair was stopped at the level of 0.8840 (middle line of “Bollinger bands”). This level seems the key one and if it is broken down, the pair may go to 0.8865, 0.8890 and 0.8915. However, it is more likely that the pair will fall to 0.8810 and 0.8795 reaching the lows of 2011. On the four-hour chart technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger bands are directed downwards. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are in the overbought zone. They are intersecting and in the near future will do down. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price with profit taking at 0.8795. Long positions with the target of 0.8890 can be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 0.8840.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: Review and forecast Current trend On Tuesday March 4 American dollar slightly strengthened against Euro amid news that Russian military forces are not planning to start military actions in Ukraine. During the day Euro fell by 50 points against the USD. Today market participants will focus their attention on preliminary GDP and retail sales of Eurozone. ADP forecast of US employment will be at (16:15 GMT+3) will be also of interest. According to forecast GDP in Eurozone will remain at the previous level of 0.5%, while retail sales will increase to 0.8%, which is above the previous level of -1.6%. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.3745, 1.3780 and 1.3825. Support levels: 1.3720, 1.3690 and 1.3646. Trading tips On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are moving in the sideways, indicating lull in the market. MACD histogram is above the zero line, but its volumes are decreasing, which a signal of recline in the rate. It is likely that the price of the pair EUR/USD will continue to decline. If downtrend continues, it is recommended to open sell positions from the current level with the nearest target of 1.3690. Breakdown of the level of 1.3690 will open the way to 1.3646.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
NZD/USD: General analysis Current trend During morning trading session the price of the pair tried to consolidate above the highs of Tuesday at the level of 0.8400. Investors’ positive sentiments and risk appetite were caused by the decrease of possibility of military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. NZD is also supported by tough monetary policy of the Bank of New Zealand. According to New Zealand’s data world prices for the main export products of the country have increased by 0.9%, which can force monetary authorities to change interest rates ahead of schedule. Support and resistance The nearest resistance levels: 0.8400 (yesterday’s highs), 0.8425 (highs of 28 February), 0.8500 (psychologically important level), 0. 8544 (high of 22 October). Support levels are 0.8352 –0.8342 (lows of March 3 and 4) , 0.8323 ( 50.0% Fibonacci) 0.8323 (61.8% Fibonacci) 0.8242 (lows of 20 February). Trading tips Technical indicators give mixed signals. On the daily chart MACD histogram gives a buy signal. Stochastic lines are prepared to intersect from top to bottom very close from oversold zone, giving a sell signal. It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of уровня 0.8425 with protective orders at 0.8400 and a target of 0.8500.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD:Review Current trend The pair GBP/USD is still in the sideways channel demonstrating sluggish movement. Yesterday the “bulls” tries to overcome the level of 1.6742. In the morning, exchange rate went up due to the forecast of growth of the British economy and positive PMI in the service sector. During American session the Pound continued to strengthen amid poor data on British labour market by ADP. Attention today should be focused on the interest rate decision of the Bank of England and changes in the volume of program to purchase troubled assets. Although these indices are the key ones for the British economy, most experts agree that they will remain unchanged. Support and resistance The nearest resistance levels are 1.6742 (yesterday’s highs) 1.6768 (highs of 28 February), 1.6822 (high of 17 February). Support levels: 1.6700 (psychological level), 1.6639 (yesterday’s lows), 1.6600 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), 1.6535 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement). Trading tips On the daily chart indicators MCD and Stochastic give a buy signal. Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.6742. Short positions are recommended below the level of 1.6700. It also makes sense to place limit orders to sell at the level of 1.6800.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/JPY: General review Current trend Japanese Yen continues to decline against the USD. During today’s Asian session the price was able to break through the moving average with the period 200. If the USD manages to maintain at this level, the Yen may continue to decline. Experts believe that such rapid decline was provoked by aggressive measures of the Central Bank of Japan, which has had two objectives. The first one is to overcome deflation, and the second one is to weaken national currency by 20% in order to support national exporters. Meanwhile, politicians of Europe and Asia expressed their discontent because devaluation of national currency gives Japanese manufacturers competitive advantage for promotion of their products in the world market. It is possible that Yen will reach the level of 110.00 by the end of the summer provided that at the next meeting in April Central Bank of Japan will confirm continuation of the soft policy. The USA has chosen a different way, continuing to reduce assets purchase program, making the USD more attractive for investments. Note the difference between interest rates of the two countries. In Japan the rates are much lower than in the USA, which adds attractiveness to Japanese currency. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is 102.52 – upper limit of the trading channel. Support level is 101.20 – bottom limit of the trading channel. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 102.60 with protective orders at 102.20 and a target of 104.60
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: Overview Current trend During the trading session on Thursday the currency pair EUR/USD sharply went up by more than 100 points. The rise was provoked by the statement made by chairman of ECB Mario Draghi. He said that in the near future European Central Bank does not plan easing of the monetary policy. ECB also decided to leave interest rate at the record low level of 0.25%. Amid this news Euro has broken down number of resistance levels and reached the highs since November 2011. Some support to the American dollar was provided by statistics. It became known that number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 323 thousand against expectations of 338 thousand. Investors today will be mainly guided by the data on new jobs outside agricultural sector of the USA. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 1.3900 and 1.4000. Support levels: 1.3800, 1.3750 and 1.3610. Trading tips On the four-hour chart technical indicators show the rise in exchange rate. Bollinger bands are diverging, which confirms a chance of uptrend. MACD histogram is above the zero line and its volumes are increasing, giving a buy signal. If current trend continues, it is recommended to open long positions from the current price with the nearest target of 1.3900. Breakdown of this level will open the way to the level of 1.4000.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
AUD/USD: Technical analysis Current trend At the beginning of the week the pair reached local highs of 0.8890, after that trend shifted into ascending. Over the week the pair rose for more than 200 points, coming up very close to the level of 0.9110. However the pair failed to reach this level. Technical indicators show a chance of correction. Signal line of MACD indicator has left histogram and is directed downwards, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic is in the middle zone, not giving a clear signal. However, all three moving average lines demonstrate continuation of growth. In case of correction, the pair may fall to 0.9035. Support and resistance Support levels: 0.9080, 0.9065, 0.9050 and 09035. The nearest resistance levels: 0.9100 and 0.9110. Key level of the “bulls” is 0.9170. Trading tips In case of correction short positions can be placed below the level of 0.9080 with the target of 0.9030. Limit orders to buy are recommended at the same level.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: The pair continues to move in the ascending channel Current trend At the end of last week European currency had reached the local highs against the USD. The pair received strong support from both Mario Draghi, the head of European Central Bank, and from Investors. Chairman of ECB said that economic growth rate in Eurozone has significantly increased and the regulator raised the forecast of GDP growth this year up to 1.2%. By 2016 GDP is expected to grow up to 1.8%. He also noted that situation in the currency markets of Europe is stabilizing and there are no reasons to curtail program of securities purchase. All these facts had a positive effect on Euro rate; demand among investors helped the pair grow to the key resistance level of 1.3900. Attention today shall be also paid to investor confidence index in Eurozone and EU economic summit. Support and resistance Currently, the pair consolidates below key resistance level of 1.3900. However, later, following significant growth, the pair will shift to the downward correction and go to the levels of 1.3820 and 1.3800. After correction, ascending movement will resume. The pair will continue to trade in the wide ascending channel. All strong resistance levels have been broken down; therefore new targets are 1.4000 and 1.4120. Technical indicators confirm the forecast of further growth. MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line, directing upwards Support levels: 1.3820, 1.3800, 1.3770, 1.3700 and 1.3630. Resistance levels: 1.3900, 1.4000 and 1.4120. Trading tips In the current situation it is recommended to place pending orders to buy from support levels of 1.3800 and 1.3820 with profit taking at the level of 1.4000.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies