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AUD/USD: technical analysis Current trend The Australian dollar is regaining from losses, incurred at the end of the last year. Last week the pair sharply went up and consolidated above psychologically important level of 0.9000, due to weakening in the USD. Technical indicators give mixed signals. Both Stochastic lines are directed downwards, showing the decline. Moving average lines of 20, 50 and 100 are directed upwards. Histogram and the signal line of MCD are in the positive zone, the signal line is directed upwards; however volumes of histogram are decreasing. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is 0.9050, which will be followed by 0.9110 and 0.9150. Support levels are 0.9000, 0.8940 and 0.8890. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions below the level of 0.9000 with the target of 0.8846. Pending orders to sell can be placed above the level of 0.9110.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
EUR/USD: Dollar is going to weaken Current trend Negative Non-Farm Payrolls have weakened American currency last Friday. The number of new paid employees was only 74 000 against the forecast of 196 000. This week the pair EUR/USD has continued to grow and can break through the resistance level of 1.3719 after US Retail Sales release. The indicator is probably going to drop from 0.7% to 0.2%. Regardless of the decrease of goods supplies, the drop of Retail Sales indicates the overstocking. From the other hand Eurozone's manufacturing index has increased by 1.6%, which will probably lead to the strengthening of the Euro. Support and resistance The pair is supported by the levels of 1.3548 and 1.3620. The closest resistance is local maximum 1.3719, which lies near middle MA of Bollinger Bands. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions at current price with Stop Loss orders at 1.3620. If the pair continues to grow, stop-loss can be moved to the break-even zone.
Kamil Avad Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF USD/CHF, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen Line is below Kijun-sen, the blue line is horizontal while the red one is directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below; current cloud is descending. The pair is trying to break through the upper border of the cloud. Id the price consolidates above Senkou Span A line, the next target for the Bulls will be at 0.9120. The closest support level is Kijun-sen line (0.9055).
USD/CHF, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below under the cloud, forming Golden Cross reversal pattern. Chinkou Span has crossed the price chart from below; current cloud is going to reverse from descending to ascending. The pair has broken through the cloud and is trying to consolidate above its upper border (0.9069). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is going to be a resistance level at 0.9219.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9055, 0.9069. Resistance levels: 0.9120, 0.9219. Trading tips On the both charts the price is consolidating above the cloud. The targets for the long positions are 0.9120 and 0.9219. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: negative statistics put pressure on the Pound Current trend The pair continues to go down slowly amid negative data on the UK inflation. In addition, UK consumer price index has also declined to the level of 2% in December 2013. Today’s key event is a speech of Mark Carney, who will definitely touched the subject of inflation decline and will sketch out prospects of further economic growth. As expected, US retail sales fell to 0.2% in December 2013. Attention today shall be paid to the US “Beige book,” the data on initial application for unemployment benefits and consumer price index. Support and resistance /b] The Pound is under pressure from macro-economic statistics. If the data on retail sales, which will become known on Friday, will be negative, the pair GBP/USD can fall to support level of 1.6320. In the medium-term down trend can maintain with the targets of 1.6100 and 1.5920. Support levels: 1.6320, 1.6200, 1.6100 and 1.5920. Resistance levels: 1.6470, 1.6540 and 1.6600. Trading tips It is recommended to place short positions at the level of 1.5950. Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.6470 with profit taking of 1.6200-1.5950.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: key level of 1.3580 won’t let the pair down Current trend Since the beginning of this year the pair EUR/USD has traded in the wide channel of 1.3700-1.3580. The pair has made several unsuccessful attempts to break down key support level of 1.3580 amid weak data in EU inflation. In addition, the rise in the USD, which followed after the release of positive labour market statistics and favourable inflation report, has given a chance to the US Fed leaders to reduce volume of asset purchase. Today, EU consumer price index and monthly economic report will be released. The US labour market data, manufacturing PMI and consumer price index will also become known. Support and resistance /b] In the medium-term European currency will continue to decline against the USD. At the end of February (beginning of March) Euro is likely to fall to key support level of 1.3300 or 50% Fibonacci line. Support levels: 1.3580, 1.3520, 1.3400 and 1.3300. Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3800 and 1.3830.
Trading tips It is recommended to place short positions with profit taking at the levels of 1.3400 and 1.3300. Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.3700.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
XAU/USD: technical analysis Current trend On Tuesday the pair reached the level of 1255.00 USD per troy ounce, reaching the new local highs. Later, the metal fell to Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% (1235.00). It is likely that the “bulls” will again try to break down resistance level of 1255.00. Technical indicators give mixed signals. Moving average lines show sideways movement. Stochastic is directed upwards; however it is located near overbought zone. The signal line of MACD indicator is directed downwards; while volumes of histogram is increasing, indicating that reversal is possible in the near future. Support and resistance Resistance levels are 1245.00 and 1255.00, the latter one is the main target of the “bulls”. Support levels are 1235.00, 1230.00 and 1215.00. Trading tips The plausible feasible scenario is that the pair will go back to resistance level of 1255.00, which will pair is unlikely to break down. Pending sell orders are recommended at the levels of 1255.00 and 1265.00.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD NZD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, forming Dead Cross reversal pattern. Chinkou Span is crossing the price chart from above, current cloud is still ascending. Tenkan-sen line is the closest resistance level at 0.8322. The next obstacle for the price on its way down will be the upper border of the cloud at 0.8271.
NZD/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart; current cloud has reversed from descending to ascending. The pair weren’t able to consolidate above the cloud and returned within its borders. Senkou Span B line becomes a resistance level (0.8313). The support will be at the level of 0.8274 (Kijun-sen line).
Key levels Support levels: 0.8271, 0.8274. Resistance levels: 0.8322, 0.8313. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we’ve got signals of trend reversal. Targets for the short positions are at the level of 0.8271. On the daily chart the price has entered the cloud, it is not recommended to open new long-term trades. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: “Bears” have become more active Current trend As expected the British currency continues to go down against the USD reaching support level of 1.6320. The decline in the pair was triggered by negative British housing market statistics on the one hand and US favourable labour market statistics on the other hand. Today, at 12:30 (GMT+3) the data on the UK retail sales will become known. Experts believe that this index will go up. The data on the American housing market and industrial output will also become known today. Support and resistance /b] If the data on retail sales confirms favourable forecast, the pair will push off from the level of 1.6320 and go up to the level of 1.6400. However, in the afternoon positive American economic statistics will add support to the American currency and the pair GBP/USD will go down to the level of 1.6250. Support levels: 1.6320, 1.6200, 1.6100 and 1.5920. Resistance levels: 1.6400, 1.6470, 1.6540 and 1.6600. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.6250. Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.6470.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line remains horizontal, while the blue one is directed down. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The pair ha sbeen corrected to the level of Tenkan-sen which is still the closest resistance level (0.8791). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8551.
AUD/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are crossing below the cloud. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. Upward impetus wasn’t enough to reverse the trend, so the pair returned to the fall. Tenkan-sen line becomes the closest resistance level at 0.8923. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8683.
Key levels Support levels: 0.8651, 0.8683. Resistance levels: 0.8791, 0.8923. Trading tips Both timeframes confirm the continuation of the downward trend, the targets for the short positions are 0.8651 and 0.8683. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: downtrend is getting stronger Current trend As expected, European currency continues to decline against the USD, reaching support level of 1.3520. The decline in the pair was caused by poor data on consumer price index in Eurozone and construction output. The USD continues to strengthen. Producer price index in Germany became known today: the index in December has been below expectations, amounting 0.1%. In the afternoon, monthly report of Bundesbank will become known. Volatility is not expected to be high as it is a day off in the U.S. banks. Support and resistance European currency can slightly regain losses; however in the medium-term the pair will continue downtrend. Key support level of 1.3580 has been broken down and the next target of the “bears” is 1.3400. The price will continue to move in the downward channel. Levels of support: 1.3520, 1.3400 and 1.3300. Levels of resistance: 1.3580, 1.3650, 1.3700 and 1.3830. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.3300. Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1.3580, in view of insignificant correction.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies