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Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 7-10.01.2014
Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site Forex Trading : Top Forex Broker : LiteForex
USD/CAD: uptrend will continue Current trend This week the pair has traded in the uptrend, rising by almost 200 points. Last night the pair USD/CAD has reached the highs, which has been recorded last time in May 2010. Currently the price is at the upper limit of the ascending channel from which correction may take place. There are no signals of trend reversal. Support and resistance The nearest support levels are 1.0760, 1.0740 and 1.7006; the latter one coincides with the level of 236% Fibonacci, which is also the main target of the “bears” for downward movement. The level of 1.0800 is the key level of the “bulls”, which will open them a way to new peaks. Trading tips Correction is likely to reach the levels of 1.0740 and 1.0700. At these levels it makes sense to place take profits of the short positions, stop loss is advisable at the level of 1.0830. Limit buy orders are recommended at the level of 1.0740.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
EUR/USD: the pair will go South to the level of 1.3300 Current trend At the beginning of this week the pair is trading with low volatility. Positive data on labour market and retail sales in Germany has supported European currency preventing the pair from the fall to new lows. Nevertheless, significant pressure on Euro is provided by complicated situation associated with inflation in Europe where statistic agencies predict new deflation. ECB has left key interest rate at the lowest level; however if situation does stabilize, the bank is prepared to decrease interest rate for deposits up to the negative values. In the USA investors are waiting for the release of the minutes of FOMC meeting. In addition, release of European retail sales index and unemployment rate will be of interest as well. Support and resistance /b] Although positive data on retail sales in Europe can provide support to the pair and trigger the rise up to resistance level of 1.3700, in the medium-term the pair EUR/USD will continue to decline to support level of 50% Fibonacci (1.3300). Support levels: 1.3580, 1.3520, 1.3400, 1.3300 and 1.3100. Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3800 and 1.3830. Trading tips In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.3350. Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.3700 with profit taking at 1.3350.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: USD will continue to rise Current trend Yesterday the pair slowly went up despite positive statistics of the US labour market. The “bulls” do not want to give up, and increased demand for the Pound maintains the pair above the level of 1.6300. Today the pair GBP/USD has already reached the level of 1.6470 and continues to grow in anticipation of announcement of the interest rate and volume of assets repurchase in the UK. Pace of economic growth in the UK is slowing down, which has been confirmed by the decline in the volume of industrial output and retail sales in Q4 2013. The data on the US number of initial applications for unemployment benefits will be known today, which is expected to decline. Support and resistance /b] Moderate demand for British currency will enable the pair to maintain positions for a short time; however at the end of January trend reversal is expected. Thorough attention shall be paid to the US labour market: the tendency of decline in unemployment may give additional reason to reduce economic stimulus programs. In the medium-term the USD is expected to rise sharply; in February the pair may decline to support level of 1.5920. Support levels: 1.6320, 1.6200, 1.6100 and 1.5920. Resistance levels: 1.6470, 1.6540 and 1.6600. Trading tips It is recommended to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5950. Pending orders to sell can be placed at the level of 1.6540 with profit taking at the level of 1.5950.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAG/USD XAG/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, forming Dead Cross reversal pattern. Under the pressure of the Cross the pair has broken down the cloud, however its flat bottom become a magnetic level, so the pair will be consolidating around it until the end of the week. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current cloud is ascending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 19.59. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is going to be a support level at 19.38.
XAG/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have almost merged under the cloud. Chinkou Span line is following the price chart, current Kumo is descending. The pair is trading within a wide sideways channel. Lower border of the cloud is the closest resistance level at 20.28. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is going to be a support level at 19.10.
Key levels Support levels: 19.38, 19.10. Resistance levels: 19.59, 20.28. Trading tips The pair is trading within a sideways channel. Pending sell orders can be placed below the level of 19.38. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Brent: general analysis Current trend The price of crude oil Brent has been falling since the beginning of this year. If international sanctions against Iran have been lifted, black gold will drop in price even further. Additional pressure on the Brent rate was caused by the US data on the increase in gasoline stocks by 6.2 billion barrels and the rise in the inventories of distillates by 5.8 billion barrels. One the reasons of the increase of fuel reserves is associated with the bad weather, which led to the cancellation of most international flights and abandoning of using personal vehicles. At the same time oil quotes were supported by tense situation in Libya, where Energy Minister threatens to stop supplies if foreign companies do not stop buying oil from the rebels at the below market price. Price dumping can lead to the reduction of oil production and interruption of delivery, which will add confidence to the “bulls” at the commodity market. Support and resistance The instrument continues to trade in the downtrend. Quotes of Brent have reached the bottom limit of the trading channel at the level of 106.16. The nearest support level is 108.17. Trading tips Short positions are recommended after breakdown of support level of 106.00 with protective order at 106.30 and a target of 105.25.
Dmitry Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
EUR/USD: Non-Farm Payrolls can weaken the USD Current trend This year the USD was able to regain positions against Euro. On the daily chart downward channel is being formed; however today, the pair has pushed off from the bottom limit of the channel and is rising. The rise was triggered by the positive European statistics: volume of industrial output in France increased by 1.3%, European GDP is expected to reach the level of 0.3%. Obviously, the pair will be affected by the data on number of jobs outside agricultural sector in the US. Experts expect reduction in number up to 196 thousand, which may lead to temporarily weakening in the USD. Support and resistance Support to the pair is provided by the bottom limit of the channel (1.3524) and Fibonacci retracement 50% (1.3593). The nearest resistance level is at the level of 38.2% Fibonacci( 1.3664), near which is located the middle line of Bollinger bands indicator. In case of breakdown of this level, the price can go up to the upper limit of the channel (1.3817). Trading tips As a trading strategy it is recommended to open long positions at the current price with stop-loss at 1.3524. In case of ascending movement stop-loss shall be moved to the breakeven zone, until the target of 1.3817 is reached.
Kamil Avad Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
USD/JPY: the pair continues to weaken Current trend Last Friday the pair had reached the level of 105.34, however following the news from American labour market it started to decline sharply The USD fell because of the poor data on jobs outside agricultural sector. By the end of the trading week the pair USD/JPY fell to the level of 104.00, losing over 100 points within a day. However, the decline has not stopped at this level: last night at the opening of the Asian session the pair fell to the level of 103.30, which is a strong support level. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 103.70, 104.00, 104.70 and 105.00. The nearest support level is 103.30. This level becomes the key level for the bears and breakdown of this level will open the way to support levels of 103.00 and 102.50. Trading tips It is most likely that the pair will continue to decline. Short positions are advisable below the level of 103.30, while pending buy orders can be placed above the level of 104.00.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: decrease of US unemployment rate will lift USD up Current trend Last Friday negative statistics from the US labour market has put pressure on the USD, triggering the decline in the pair GBP/USD to 1.6500. However, forecast for the USD is still positive. It became known that unemployment rate in the US fell to 6.7%, while it was expected that the index will remain at the previous level. The UK economic indices are declining as well, indicating slowdown of economic growth in the country. On Tuesday British key indices will become known, which are expected to go up slightly. On Thursday the data on number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US will be released, which is expected to reduce for several thousands. Support and resistance In the medium-term the pair is likely to go up to resistance level of 1.6540 and after that will decline to 1.6200 and 1.5920. The rise in the USD will be supported by strong US economic indices and increasing investors’ demand for the USD. Support levels: 1.6320, 1.6200, 1.6100 and 1.5920. Resistance levels: 1.6470, 1.6540 and 1.6600. Trading tips It is recommended to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5950. Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.6540 with the target of 1.5950.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 13-17 Jan 2014
Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site Forex Trading : Top Forex Broker : LiteForex