Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company - page 190
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
AUD/USD: technical comments
AUD/USD regained $1.0200 after hitting $1.0176 (below the 100-day MA) early Wednesday. As can be seen from the daily chart, today the pair trades below the lower boundary of an upward channel existing since June. Yesterday the bulls didn’t manage to fix above an important 200-day MA. On the H4 chart the pair trades close above the 200-period MA, while 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs are heading up.
Resistance: $1.0262 (100-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0279/85 (200-day MA and July 11); $1.0295 (50-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0300; $1.0320/28 (July 4-5 maximums); $1.0400; $1.0443 (July 19 maximum); $1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); $1.0473 (April maximum); $1.0500; $1.0557 (March 27 maximum).
Support: $1.0200 (psychological and a 100-day MA); $1.0155 (200-peiod MA on the H4 chart); $1.0100 (July 12 minimum); $1.0047 (50-day MA); $0.9968 (June 22 minimum); $0.9579 (June 1 minimum)
In our view, if the pair manages to fix below $1.0200 (a 100-day MA), a further fall to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum) will become possible. However, a medium-term uptrend looks resilient: further advance of the Aussie will lead AUD/USD to $1.0443 (July maximum) and $1.0473 (April maximum). Strategists at Danske Bank remain bullish for the pair in a long-term and recommend buying AUD/USD on dips.
Chart. Daily AUD/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
BofA: AUD/USD will fall below parity
Analysts at Bank of America expect AUD/USD to fall below parity before the end of 2012 on the back of the weaker domestic growth and external risks coming from Europe and China.
According to specialists, support for the Australian currency from carry traders and central banks becomes weaker. The Asian central banks, which in recent years were adding Aussie to their reserves, are slowing their overall reserve expansion. What is more, if the market volatility picks up on the back of euro crisis concerns, the demand for carry trade operations will drop because of the surging risks.
Photo: shutterstock.com
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
Buy EUR? Are you kidding?!
The single currency is consolidating around $1.2060 versus the greenback after it renewed yesterday 2-year minimum hitting $1.2041. The market’s sentiment took a blow due to sell-off in global stocks and escalating concerns about Spain’s future.
The majority of the analysts agree that EUR/USD targets $1.1875 (June 2010 minimum). Yet there are those who even now recommend buying euro.
For example, BNP Paribas thinks that the Fed is moving closer to easing its policy and expects “a reversal of the USD's recent rally.” The specialists say that, according to on their fair-value models, after its broad decline euro is substantially undervalued versus its counterparts. So, BNP Paribas proposes going long on EUR/USD stopping at $1.1870 (slightly below June 2010 minimum) and targeting $1.2420 (fair value).
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ points out that the number of euro shorts is so big these days that there’s a chance of a short-covering. After all, the market did know that Spain was in trouble long ago, so there’s nothing surprising in what’s happening now.
Chart. Daily EUR/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
Analysts: comments on Australian CPI
Australian CPI rose by 0.5% q/q in Q2 compared with a 0.1% q/q rise in Q1 and by 1.2% y/y compared with a 1.6% y/y rise in Q1. The data are slightly weaker than the median forecast (a 0.6% q/q rise and a 1.3% y/y rise).
Most analysts agree the times of low inflation in Australia are coming to an end and the CPI data are not weak enough to push the Reserve bank of Australia to cut rates immediately.
Nomura: The inflation rate is not weak enough to justify any imminent rate cut by the RBA and Q2 may become the bottom for inflation. Recent comments by RBA Governor Stevens also point that the current state of the Australian economy is appropriate. However, in conditions of deteriorating global environment the RBA is likely to cut rates by 25bp before the end of 2012.
NAB: The downtrend in inflation we have seen in recent years has run its course as downward pressure on prices from the higher Aussie and cheap imports is waning, with inflation looking set to drift higher in the quarters ahead. The RBA still has plenty of room for monetary stimulus if the economy needs it, but the CPI data alone are not low enough to put another rate cut seriously on the agenda for the August meeting.
Photo: Reuters
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
US corporate earnings disappoint
American stocks moved down sharply on Tuesday amid concerns about European crisis, weak manufacturing data and US soft corporate earnings.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell by 104.14 points (0.8%) to 12,617.32. The broader Standard Poor's 500 lost 12.21 points to 1,338.31. The Nasdaq composite declined by 27.16 points to 2,862.99.
S&P 500 Index. Source: Bloomberg
UPS, the largest package-delivery company, fell by 4.6%. AT&T, US biggest phone company, lost 2.1% amid sluggish sales due to fewer wireless customers. The computer network giant Cisco Systems plunged by 5.9% as it announced jobs cuts. DuPont, huge chemical maker, reported that its net income fell 3% for Q2 on slower business in Europe and Asia. DuPont's stock fell by 2%.
The shares of Apple, the most valuable company, slumped by 5% in after-hours trading Tuesday on disappointing quarterly results. Apple Inc. revealed that both revenue and net income posted increases of just over 20% – cause for celebration at most companies, but not much judging by Apple’s standards. Such weak figures for Apple are explained not by the decline in the sales volumes, but the fact that consumers bought less expensive versions of the devices. The company reported earnings of $9.32 a share excluding one-time items vs. consensus forecast of $10.22 a share. The shareholders will now worry whether Apple shares remain fairly priced relative to the money the company makes.
Image from macdigger.ru
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
UK GDP dropped by 0.7% in Q2
UK economy contracted for the third quarter in a row losing 0.7% in Q2 – that’s a more than 3 times bigger decline the analysts were expecting (consensus: -0.2% q/q; previous: -0.3% in Q1).
Chart from Forex Factory
RBS: Construction which fell 5.2% in Q2 after losing 4.9% in Q1 has significantly contributed to the GDP decline. “Looking through the statistical noise, the underlying picture looks weaker than expected. This increases the chances of further monetary policy easing, but we do not expect any action prior to November (when the current QE purchases are concluded).”
EUR/GBP jumped by about 50 pips on the release to 200-hour MA at 0.7830. GBP/USD spiked up and down but then settled back in the daily range, at the levels around $1.5500.
Chart. H1 EUR/GBP
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
Is Spain heading towards full-scale bailout?
Let’s sum up the latest talk about the odds that Spain will ask for a full sovereign bailout after a 100-billion-euro loan to Spanish banks was approved last week. Spanish 10-year rose to 7.57% – at this point Greece, Ireland and Portugal have already cried for help. Spain has further debt obligations in 2012 and needs to sell a further 36 billion euro of bonds this year
Although the case may seem obvious while looking at these grim figures, opinions differ.
The plea for bailout is coming
Société Générale: “The drumbeat of the market for a full bailout is getting louder.”
JPMorgan: “If yields stay at these levels then Spain will find it very difficult to fund itself. There’s no such thing as a partial bailout, and it has become increasingly clear in recent weeks that Spain will need a full sovereign bail-out.”
Spain will live to see 2013 on its own
HSBC: “Spain's debt dynamics are different from other countries; every country is unique in its own way and in many ways Spain is already 70% funded for this year. It can issue bills to get through the summer and probably last through the fourth quarter without any problems. And by then you might get the intervention from the ECB or the ESM”.
Note though, that yields on 2-year and 10-year Spanish debt have significantly leveled up – a bad sign. One of the reasons that the country has been able to survive without further assistance when its 10-year borrowing costs have been so high for several months is the lower yields it has had on shorter term bonds.
Image from koreatimes.co.k
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
NZD/USD: head & shoulders
NZD/USD strengthens after hitting $0.7810 early Wednesday. The pair had been declining for three consecutive days since Friday. The pair trades sideways after an uptrend early June. As can be seen from the daily chart, the pair tested a neckline support of head-and-shoulders pattern that lies close to a 50% Fib. retracement from a May downtrend ($0.7840). NZD/USD trades below the 200- and 100-day MAs. On the H4 chart the 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs are heading to converge and to create a strong resistance area.
Resistance: 0.7960/83 (100- and 200-day MAs and July 23 maximum); $0.8000; $0.8014 (June 21 maximum); $0.8053 (July 19 maximum); $0.8075 (July 5 maximum); $0.8100; $0.8200; $0.8231/33 (April 27 and 30 maximums)
Support: $0.7810 (50-day MA and July 25 minimum); $0.7748 (38.2% Fib. retracement); $0.7700; $0.7638 (23.6% Fib. retracement); $0.7600; $0.7500; $0.7454 (2012 minimum)
In our view, today’s upward movement may turn out to be a short-term correction. A head-and-shoulders figure will confirm if the bears manage to keep NZD/USD below the 50-day MA. When this occurs, we expect the pair to drop to the $0.7650 area.
Chart. Daily NZD/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!
Analysts: comments ahead of RBNZ
RBC: RBNZ is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at a record low 2.50%, but we expect a dovish accompanying statement. It seems that inflation is too low for the actual GDP to reach the potential one at the beginning of 2013 as the RBNZ is aiming. The regulator is likely to keep the OCR at current level until 2014.
Standard Chartered: Rates are expected to be kept at 2.50% for the rest of 2012. Worries about external headwinds, including a slowing China and the lingering European sovereign debt crisis, mean the RBNZ will likely refrain from hiking rates soon.
It is to be recalled that Q2 CPI inflation came in at 1.0% y/y - not only lower than what the market expected, but also at the bottom of the RBNZ‟s 1-3% target range.
Photo: shutterstock.com
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
IG: USD/JPY may fall to 77.30
Analysts at IG Markets Securities claim that the greenback will slide to 5-month minimum versus Japanese yen at 77.30 (lower end of the weekly Cloud).
The specialists cite the following USD-bearish signals from USD/JPY daily Ichimoku chart:
-the conversion line (1) has fallen below the baseline (2);
-the spot rate is below the Cloud (3);
-the lagging line (4) is also beneath the spot rate.
Daily USD/JPY
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!