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USD/CAD: bullish views of the banks
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the greenback may bounce up versus its Canadian counterpart after the retracement to 1.0123/1.0085 (50% Fib of April-to-June rise, the 200-day MA) is over. The specialists think that USD/CAD’s advance may resume after correction in June and July. In the medium term the bullish outlook will be confirmed when the pair rises above 1.0362 (June maximum). In this case the longer-term targets will be 1.0523 (November maximum) and 1.0575 (200-week MA).
Chart. Daily USD/CAD
Analysts at MIG Bank point out that USD/CAD is holding above the key support of 1.0100 (close to 200-day MA) and even if US dollar dips below this level, it will be only a short-term move. In this case the bank recommends buying USD at 1.0050. According to MIG, the medium term outlook for the pair will change from bullish to neutral only if it slides below 0.9800.
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GBP/USD: down on BoE minutes
The bulls were pushing GBP/USD up for three consecutive days and the sterling nearly managed to overcome the resistance of the downward trend, existing since June. However, the pair returned to the channel today on the back of the important UK data releases and now trades close to the strong $1.5600 level.
The BoE meeting minutes held on July 4-5 revealed the MPC voted unanimously in favor of maintaining the interest rate at 0.5%, while 7 members voted in favor of expanding the QE by a further £50 billion. According to analysts at ING, the increased support for additional QE means that it will possibly be expanded to £450 billion by the end of 2012. A new QE round is expected to weigh on the British currency. The unemployment rate in Britain unexpectedly declined to 8.1%.
Commerzbank specialists expect GBP/USD’s growth to be limited on the upside by 55- and 200-day MA’s ($1.5685 and $1.5751). They forecast the pair to decline towards the $1.5407/1.5393 support area (June 8 and July 12 minimum). The next support lies at $1.5270/35 (2012 minimums).
Chart. Daily GBP/USD
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July 19: economic & forex news
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares added 1.5% yesterday. JPY rose against all but one of its 16 major peers amid concern no progress will be reached on the euro zone’s crisis, what will increase demand for a safe Japanese currency. USD weakens against the high-yielding currencies such as AUD, NZD and CAD. Mild weakness in the U.S. has been positive for risky currencies as the stimulus becomes more and more likely. Demand for risky assets was also supported as volatility for major currencies slid to the lowest since November 2007.
GBP/USD strengthens on Thursday. Yesterday the pound dropped after the minutes of the BoE meeting this month showed the decision to keep its interest rate at a record low 0.5% was unanimous, while 7 members voted in favor of expanding the QE by a further 50 billion pounds.
Although US dollar is broadly weakening, the single currency is even weaker. EUR/USD seems unable to overcome resistance at $1.2300. German lawmakers vote on a 100-billion euro bailout for Spanish banks (12:00 GMT). Angela Merkel will likely get the majority needed to for this piece of legislation to pass successfully. The sole euro-related data release is the publication of the region’s current account (08:00 GMT). The market’s attention will focus, though, on French and Spanish debt auctions (8:50-9:50 GMT). Euro is trading at record minimums vs. Aussie and kiwi and at more than 20-year minimums against loonie.
In the US, as usual on Thursdays, watch for the jobless claims figures (12:30 GMT). In addition, there are 2 more important releases: existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing index (14:00 GMT). The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers on Wednesday that it was "certainly possible" that the central bank could take new steps to support the economic recovery if the situation at the labor market doesn’t improve.
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EUR/USD: short-term outlook
The single currency got hurt as fears about the euro zone’s future flared up again yesterday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that a solution to the bloc’s problems was not yet in sight. German lawmakers vote on a 100-billion euro bailout for Spanish banks (12:00 GMT).
In Europe the market’s attention will focus on French and Spanish debt auctions (8:50-9:50 GMT). Spain will try to sell 3 billion euro of 5, 7 and 10-year bonds, while France would sell 8 billion euro in shorter-term debt. The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds was at 6.93% on Wednesday, close to the critical 7% level which is regarded as unsustainable in the long term.
EUR/USD seems unable to overcome resistance at $1.2300. The odds are that the single currency will once more try to retest this level, but then fail around $1.2320.
Analysts at Commerzbank repeat what they have said earlier this week: EUR/USD won’t be able to overcome resistance at $1.2365/1.2425 (38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements of July decline) and will slide to $1.1934 (the symmetrical triangle downside target) and $1.2053 (200-month MA) and $1.1876 (2010 minimum).
Support: $1.2275 (intraday support), $.2260 (July 6 minimum/July 13 maximum), $1.2235 (July 10 minimum).
Resistance: $1.2297 (today’s maximum), $1.2306 (yesterday’s maximum), $1.2317 (Tuesday’s maximum).
Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Key options expiring today
Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).
Here are the key options expiring today:
EUR/USD: $1.2175, $1.2190, $1.2300, $1.2325, $1.2335, $1.2350, $1.2400;
USD/JPY: 80.00;
AUD/USD: $1.0195, $1.0300;
GBP/USD: $1.5500, $1.5700;
EUR/GBP: 0.8065.
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EUR/NZD: a downtrend may continue
EUR/NZD has been trading sideways in a NZ$1.5507-1.5324 range for most of July as the euro’s bearish movement slowed down. The pair remains in a downward channel since May. As can be seen from a daily chart, the 55-, 100-, and 200-period MAs are heading down. EUR/NZD, therefore, is just waiting for new signals from the euro area to continue a decline.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase believe concerns the euro bloc’s debt crisis is worsening could push the pair to NZ$1.51, beating the NZ$1.5324 record it reached on July 16.
Chart. Daily EUR/NZD
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NZD/USD: up or down?
NZD/USD strengthens for a third consecutive day on Thursday, enjoying the increased demand for the high-yielding assets. The pair trades above the 100- and 200-day MAs. Specialists at HSBC expect NZD/USD to edge higher, driven mostly by growing demand for the Aussie. In their view, the pair is likely to reach $0.8040-0.8060 in a short-term.
Analysts at JPMorgan disagree: according to them, NZD/USD is forming a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on a daily chart. A drop of the kiwi below the $0.7840/70 support area may confirm a deeper corrective phase after an uptrend in June, causing the pair to weaken further. A decline to $0.7640 would become likely.
Chart. Daily NZD/USD
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USD/JPY: US data in focus
USD/JPY hit 6-week minimum at 78.47 during today’s Asian session testing levels below support at 78.60. US currency weakened after the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that the central bank may ease policy unless the labor market shows gains.
RBS: The market isn’t quite factoring in the QE3, but many see the trend of global central banks providing liquidity unlikely to change. Yen strengthened despite rising risk assets as the Bank of Japan is seen as less dovish than other major central banks.
All eyes are no on US data due at 12:30 and 14:00 GMT: weekly jobless claims, existing home sales for June and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey for July.
RBS: Strong US data will likely prompt dollar-buying, while weak data could increase expectations for a third round of quantitative easing, leaving the trend intact of buying risk assets with the euro and the dollar as global funding currencies.
Resistance: 79.00 (previous support), 79.40 (July 13 maximum, July 3 minimum), 79.60 (July 10 maximum), 80.00 (psychologically important level), 80.62 (June minimum), 81.78 (mid-April maximum) and 84.19 (March maximum).
Support: 78.60 (June 15 minimum) and 78.00 (the level of potential BOJ intervention).
One may try setting small longs on bullish candles (for example, hammer).
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
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AUD/USD: technical & fundamental
AUD/USD keeps strengthening for a fifth consecutive day on Thursday on the back of the improved risk sentiment and despite the drop of the NAB business confidence in Q2. The pair trades on a 11-week high and above a 200-day MA. On a daily chart we see three strong bullish candles; however, the Aussie’s growth is limited on the upside by a strong resistance at $1.0469 (April maximum).
The Australian currency was supported today by the German Bundesbank’s decision to begin adding Australian dollar assets such as government bonds to its foreign reserve holdings before the end of September. It is interesting to note that the demand for the Australian assets has increased over the last year, supporting the currency despite ongoing turmoil in the world economy, lower interest rates and a slide in commodity prices.
Resistance: 1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); 1.0469 (April maximum); 1.0500 (psychological); 1.0557 (March 27 maximum)
Support: 1.0400 (psychological); 1.0320/28 (July 4-5 maximums); 1.0278 (200-day MA)
Chart. Daily AUD/USD
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USD/CHF: trading advice from MIG bank
It’s been a while since we’ve wrote something about USD/CHF. The pair is moving gently up within rising daily trend. On H1 chart we see a falling wedge formation – an argument for the bullish view on the pair. The pair may rise to 1.0150 and higher. At the same time, there’s still room for correction to 0.9700. Analysts at MIG Bank recommend setting a buy limit at this point targeting 0.9850/1.0150/1.0400 and stopping below 0.9550.
Support: 0.9750, 0.9715, and 0.9700.
Resistance: 0.9780, 0.9800 and 0.9870.
Chart. H4 USD/CHF
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