Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company - page 185
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
AUD/USD: technical comments
AUD/USD demonstrates a bearish correction after a morning surge on RBA meeting minutes (H1 chart). The pair tested the $1.0300 level, but didn’t manage to hold above there. AUD/USD trades close to a 200-day MA and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of a May decline. The pair trades in an upward channel since June.
Analysts at ANZ are bullish on AUD/USD and expect the pair to reach $1.0450 in a near term (close to the April maximum). Specialists believe the Australian economy is strong enough to cope with the external threats and to push the national currency on the upside.
Resistance: 1.0300 (psychological), 1.0307 (today’s maximum), 1.0320 (July 4 maximum), 1.0328 (July 5 maximum), 1.0370.
Support: 1.0275 (200-day MA), 1.0260 (78.6% Fib. retracement), 1.0215 (100-day MA), 1.0200 (psychological), 1.0155 (July 9 minimum).
Chart. Daily AUD/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
Ben Bernanke's testimony: day 1
Tuesday was the first day of Ben Bernanke’s semiannual testimony to US Congress. The Fed’s Chairman gave no hint that the Fed was any closer to launching a new round of monetary stimulus.
US dollar initially went up on the lack of the more QE indication. Then, however, the markets perceived Bernanke’s general pessimism and strengthened in belief that the central banker is just trying to buy more time.
Bernanke’s wording on US economic growth remained the same as in June: economic growth would continue at a “moderate” pace in the coming quarters before picking up “very gradually.” The Federal Reserve’s Chief underlined that progress on reducing unemployment will probably be “frustratingly slow.”
The Chairman repeated the Fed is ready to take further action to boost the economic recovery, so the door for further easing remains open, though QE “shouldn’t be used lightly.” Among the available easing tools Bernanke mentioned further asset purchases, including mortgage-backed securities, lowering the interest rate the Fed pays on reserves that banks keep with it and altering communications on the rate outlook.
As usual, Bernanke warned the lawmakers that current fiscal policy is endangering US economic growth and urged them to “address the nation’s fiscal challenges.”
UPI/Kevin Dietsch
The second part of Bernanke’s testimony takes place on Wednesday. In the past Bernanke preferred not to reveal major changes in the Fed’s policy while speaking in front of the Congress. Zerohedge points out that “there are no major (negative) news releases between now and next FOMC meeting” on July 31-August 1 which could take away the markets doubts and make investors sure that more easing will be coming soon.
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
July 18: economic & forex news
There are 2 main blocs of data today: releases in the UK at 8:30 GMT (Claimant count change, MPC meeting minutes, unemployment rate) and in the US and Canada at 12:30 GMT (US building permits, housing starts and the Beige Book and BOC monetary policy report and press conference). The Beige Book survey of business conditions in 12 American districts is the most important publication as it will be closely studied for the signs of the deteriorating economic conditions in the US.
The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will once again appear in front of US Congress later today. Investors generally think that US economy will need more easing. Analysts widely believe that QE3 will become more than likely in case of strong downside surprise to growth or the lingering softness in US labor market. Such attitude of the market is negative for the greenback.
Demand for euro was limited before Germany’s lower-house lawmakers vote tomorrow on aid to recapitalize Spanish banks. Angela Merkel will likely get the majority needed to for this piece of legislation to pass successfully. EUR/USD briefly tested the levels above $1.2300, but didn’t manage to hold there.
The Bank of Japan released minutes from its June 14-15 meeting. The policymakers agreed to monitor effect of asset-purchase program. Some of them warned that CPI main be flat longer than expected. USD/JPY is consolidating above 79 yen (H1).
AUD/USD returned to July maximums around $1.0300 helped by better than expected Australia Westpac May leading index.
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
Key options expiring today
Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).
Here are the key options expiring today:
EUR/USD: $1.2200, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2400
GBP/USD: $1.5425
EUR/GBP: 0.7865
USD/CHF: 0.9900
AUD/USD: $1.0200
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
Citigroup: bullish on JPY vs. EUR and USD
Technical analysts at Citigroup claim that EUR/JPY may decline to the minimal levels since 2000.
The specialists claim that if euro falls below 95.50 (level close to June 1 minimum), it will slide to 92 yen. On the Ichimoku chart the pair dropped below conversion and base lines which formed the “dead cross” below the Cloud – a bearish signal.
As for the fundamental factors, they are also in favor of Japanese currency: persistent risk-off sentiment and no additional easing announced by the BOJ last week.
As for USD/JPY, it may decline to 77.66 if it breaches the 78.61 level.
Chart. Daily EUR/JPY
AUD/USD: technical comments
AUD/USD trades on a downside on Wednesday, but remains above $1.0300 and the 200-day MA as currency markets are waiting for the US Beige Book release. Will the US economic conditions give a hint on a necessity of a new QE round? Yesterday the Aussie plummeted right after Ben Bernanke’s testimony in the US Congress, but then rebounded and overcame the $1.0300 mark. The pair trades in an upward channel since early June.
According to analysts at NAB, the Australian currency remains extremely sensitive to changes in risk appetite even despite the positive domestic signals. In their view, AUD/USD will move on a downside as the euro zone’s crisis is far from resolution, US growth remains sluggish and China raises concerns.
Resistance: 1.0318/20 (yesterday’s and July 4 maximum), 1.0328 (July 5 maximum), 1.0370, 1.0469 (April maximum).
Support: 1.0300 (psychological), 1.0277 (200-day MA), 1.0260 (78.6% Fib. retracement), 1.0215 (100-day MA), 1.0200 (psychological), 1.0155 (July 9 minimum).
Chart. Daily AUD/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
UBS: comments on forex majors
EUR/USD: Euro won’t be able to sustain gains. The single currency will soon come under renewed negative pressure. As long as EUR/USD is trading under the key resistance of $1.2365, it’s vulnerable for a decline to $1.2163.
GBP/USD: Resistance is at $1.5722, while support is found at $1.5554.
USD/JPY: If the pair drops below 78.61, it will risk sliding to 77.99 ahead of 77.66. Resistance is at 79.39 and 80.10.
USD/CHF: resistance is at 0.9873. Above this level the greenback will head to 0.9951. Support lies at 0.9686.
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
NZD/USD: technical comments
NZD/USD fell to $0.7930 on Tuesday right after the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke refrained from indicating if the regulator is considering new monetary measures, but then bounced back. On Wednesday the pair continues a downward movement and trades below a 200-day MA. Today’s Bernanke’s speech is unlikely to have a strong influence on the pair. NZD/USD traded in an upward channel, but left it in late June and has been moving sideways since then.
According to specialists at Westpac, NZD/USD is likely to trade higher towards a new $0.8005/75 range in a short term, as the market starts to price in a new round of money printing by the Fed.
Some analysts, however, believe the kiwi is strongly overvalued. Analysts at Commerzbank, for example, expect the pair to drop to $0.7800 (55-day MA) in the forthcoming weeks. They will remain bearish until NZD/USD breaks above $0.8316 (April maximum).
Chart. H4 NZD/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
EUR/GBP: technical comments
EUR/GBP has been trading in a downward channel since July 2011 and is likely to continue the decline. As can be seen from the daily chart, 55-, 100- and 200-period MAs are heading down.
Analysts at Westpac recommend going short on EUR/GBP at current levels, setting a stop at $0.8025 and a target at $0.7650. According to specialists, euro zone’s problems will remain a cloud over the market for weeks and, therefore, will weigh on the single currency.
Chart. Weekly EUR/GBP
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
EUR/USD: comments & technical levels
The single currency had dropped from the levels in the $1.2270/2300 area to the day’s minimums around $1.2330.
Euro fell on a media report that quoted German Chancellor Angela Merkel as saying she could not be sure the European project would work. The markets are turning risk-off. In addition, EUR finds itself under pressure after yesterday’s testimony of Ben Bernanke who refrained from discussing specific stimulus measures. The majority of the economists believe that today’s speech of the Fed’s Chairman will be quite similar to what we’ve heard on Tuesday.
Support: $1.2188 (July 17 minimum), $1.2175 (July 16 minimum), $1.2163 (July 13 minimum) and 1.2151 (June 29, 2010, minimum).
Resistance: $1.2317 (July 17 maximum), $1.2334 (July 10 maximum), $1.2365 (July 5 minimum) and $1.2400 (July 6 maximum).
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ: EUR/USD may slide to $1.2050 during a week from now as the hopes for more easing from the Fed will be gradually weakening. Resistance lies at $1.2450.
Chart. H1 EUR/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!