Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company - page 189
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
EUR/USD: technical comments
EUR/USD has formed a gap between Friday’s close of $1.2157 and today’s opening at $1.2105. Euro renewed 2-year minimum at $1.2065 and is now stating below $1.2131 (50% of the trading range since the currency’s introduction).
Support: $1.2072/85, $1.2045 (June 11, 2010, minimum), $1.2008 (June 8, 2010, maximum), $1.1972-1.1991 (trend line support connecting the November 2005 minimum at $1.1635 and June 2010 minimum at $1.1876) and $1.1876 (June 7, 2010, minimum).
Resistance: $1.2144 (Friday’s minimum) and $1.2162 (July 13 minimum). These levels are to hold upward correction.
Outlook: negative.
Rabobank: EUR/USD us targeting $1.1876 – “1.20 is a big psychological level with option barriers a plenty and we would be surprised not to see a test of this.”
BBH: “Convincing downside break of the $1.2080 level would target $1.1880 initially.”
Chart. Daiy EUR/USD
GBP/USD: technical comments
On Monday GBP/USD extends decline for a second consecutive day as the risk aversion helped the greenback to strengthen vs. its major counterparts.
The cable dropped by 100 pips, but found support at $1.5484 and bounced back above the $1.5500 area. The pair trades close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from a May decline. GBP/USD has been moving sideways since June after trading in a bearish channel in May.
Support: $1.5500 (psychological); $1.5486 (today’s minimum); $1.5460 (July 6 minimum); $1.5400 (July minimums); $1.5260 (2012 minimum)
Resistance: $1.5580 (July 11 maximum); $1.5617/26 (50-day MA and today’s maximum); 1.5662 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement); $1.5736 (July 19 maximum), $1.5750 (200-day MA), $1.5777 (June 20 maximum)
Chart. Daily GBP/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
July 24: economy and currencies
EUR/USD consolidated below Friday’s minimum at $1.2144. Yesterday the pair renewed 2-year minimum at $1.2065 on concerns about Greece and Spain. Moody’s Investors Service changed credit outlook for Germany and the Netherlands to negative. There’s a bunch of PMIs released in Europe today. At the same time, the market’s attention will likely remain focused on Spain which will offer 3- and 6-month bills. Yesterday Spanish 10-year yields rose to the records of 7.5%. The Netherlands will sell today debt maturing in 2014 and 2028. Troika officials arrive in Athens today amid doubts that Greece will meet commitments required for bailout funding. EUR/JPY remains close to 11-year minimum at 94.23 hit on Monday.
Aussie, kiwi and loonie gain on Tuesday after a two-day drop. Risk sentiment improved after HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in July from 48.2, bolstering the export prospects for the South Pacific nations. However, the demand on the high-yielding currencies is still limited ahead of the Spanish auction and euro area PMIs. In a speech today the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens sought to ease concern his nation is vulnerable to shocks from China, a domestic housing slump and global financial stress, saying it remains a “lucky country” with a favorable outlook.
Demand for Aussie and kiwi is supported against the yen amid speculation the BoJ will act to weaken the nation’s currency. Finance Minister Azumi said the yen’s gain is one- sided and doesn’t reflect economic fundamentals. USD/JPY declines for a fifth consecutive day. British pound also strengthens on Tuesday, driven by the market sentiment.
Events to watch:
Euro area: PMIs. A gauge for manufacturing in the currency bloc is estimated to be at 45.3 in July. That’s below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction and compares with a reading of 45.1 last month.
Canada: Retail sales. Data release may cheer the investors up a little bit: according to forecasts, core retail sales increased by 0.2% m/m in May vs. a decline by 0.3% in April, while retail sales - to grow by 0.3% vs. a previous 0.5% drop.
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
AUD/USD: technical comments
On Tuesday AUD/USD strengthens after a two-day decline, following the last week’s advance. As can be seen from the daily chart, today the pair trades close to the lower boundary of an upward channel existing since June. The bulls are struggling to fix above an important 200-day MA. On the H4 chart the pair trades close to a 50-period MA, while 100- and 200-period MAs are heading up.
Resistance: $1.0320/28 (July 4-5 maximums); $1.0400 (psychological); $1.0443 (July 19 minimum); $1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); $1.0469 (April maximum); $1.0500 (psychological); $1.0557 (March 27 maximum).
Support: $1.0279 (200-day MA); $1.0280 (July 18 minimum); $1.0240 (July 10 maximum); $1.0201 (100-day MA); $1.0099 (July 12 minimum); $0.9968 (June 22 minimum).
In our view, if the pair manages to break the support area at $1.0280/55, a further fall to $1.0099 (July 12 minimum) will become possible. However, the upward trend looks resilient: further advance of the Aussie will lead AUD/USD to $1.0673 (April 27 maximum)
Commerzbank analysts see resistance at $1.0485 from the top of a short term channel and after recent failure ahead of the $1.0475 April maximum.
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
EUR/USD: technical & fundamental update
Fundamental news: Spain sold 1.63 billion euro of 3-month bills and 1.42 billion euro of 6-month bills – that’s just over 3-billion target. The yields were slightly higher. Euro zone flash PMIs for July were softer than expected. The region’s manufacturing PMI fell to the lowest level since June 2009.
Support: $1.2065 (yesterday’s minimum), $1.2045 (June 11, 2010, minimum), $1.2028 (April 3, 2006, minimum), $1.2008 (June 8, 2010, maximum), $1.1972/91 (trend line support connecting the November 2005 minimum at $1.1635 and June 2010 minimum at $1.1876) and $1.1876 (June 7, 2010, minimum).
Resistance: $1.2144 (Friday’s minimum), $1.2162 (July 13 minimum), $1.2175 (July 16 minimum), $1.2250 (down channel), $1.2325 (last week’s maximum).
Commerzbank: EUR/USD will slide to $1.2053 (200-month moving average) and consolidate there for some time before sliding to $1.1934 (downside measured target from the symmetrical triangle).
Chart. H1 EUR/USD
Standard Chartered: risk of short squeeze
Analysts at Standard Chartered claim that the outlook for the single currency remains bearish. As the same time, while euro will continue gradually depreciating versus the greenback, its slide in the recent weeks versus Australian dollar, Japanese yen and Canadian dollar has been much bigger, so there’s a risk of near-term short squeeze if case of positive surprises on the economic or sovereign debt fronts in the coming days. As a result, investors with shorter time horizons should look to position for, or hedge against, the risk that the EUR could see a short but sharp clearing-out of short positions, while maintaining the general negative view on the currency.
Chart. Daily EUR/JPY
GBP/USD: technical comments
On Tuesday GBP/USD consolidates at $1.5500 level after an intense drop on Friday and Monday. As can be seen from the daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways since June after trading in a bearish channel in May. The pair trades close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from a May decline and far below the 55-, 100- and 200-day MAs. On the H4 chart MAs met at $1.5584, creating a strong resistance.
Support: $1.5486 (July 23 minimum); $1.5460 (July 6 minimum); $1.5400 (July minimums); $1.5392 (July 12 minimum); $1.5320 (June 5 minimum); $1.5267 (June 1 minimum); $1.5233 (2012 minimum).
Resistance: $1.5584 (MAs on the H4 chart); $1.5596 (50-day MA); $1.5626 (July 23 maximum); $1.5661 (38.2% Fib. retracement); $1.5736 (July 19 maximum), $1.5747 (200-day MA), $1.5777/88 (June 20 maximum, 50% Fib. retracement and a 100-day MA).
In our view, a close below $1.5392 (July 12 minimum) could trigger a drop to $1.5267/33 (June and 2012 minimums). If the pair manages to overcome a strong resistance at $1.5584 (MAs on the H4 chart), an increase to $1.5746/88 resistance area will become possible.
Chart. Daily GBP/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
Analysts on BOJ intervention risk
Economists argue that the Bank of Japan might want to avoid USD/JPY returning to the range of 76-78 yen within which it was trading in the second half of 2011. Japanese officials have made a lot of comments speaking about their readiness to act counter volatile moves in the national currency. Yet, as it always is with Japan, it’s very difficult to judge the real intentions of the policymakers. Here’s what the analysts think.
Barclays Capital: “We see the increased chance of JPY selling intervention by the Japanese authorities, or at least verbal intervention with a tougher tone below 78 yen.”
MIG Bank: The BOJ may intervene if USD/JPY slides below 77.65.
Citibank: The market has become very used to such threats of “decisive steps”. Our basis view is that intervention may not come until the dollar falls below 75 yen.
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
GBP/USD ahead of UK GDP
Photo: Reuters
On Wednesday UK will release preliminary Q2 GDP figures. Data are expected to confirm the fears that the UK still remains in recession: according to consensus forecast, British economy may have fallen by 0.2% (q/q). This would be the third successive quarterly fall, and would mean that GDP is lower now than it was in the third quarter of 2010 and 3.9% below its pre-recession peak.
Chart. UK GPP (2001-2012)
Source: Forex Factory
According to analysts at Commerzbank, the figures have already been priced in, so the market is not likely to move dramatically. Strategists expect GBP/USD to test $1.53 in the next 2-3 weeks.
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
July 25: economy and currencies
EUR/USD consolidates around $1.2070 before data may show German business confidence in July is the weakest since 2010, raising concern the debt crisis is hurting the region’s economy (consensus: 104.8; previous: 105.3). According to analysts, the negative data will keep the euro weak as the strongest economy in the euro zone is losing steam. The yield on Spain’s 10-year bonds yesterday climbed to a euro-era record of 7.636%, while on Italy’s - to 6.598% (highest since Jan. 17). Moody’s rating agency lowered the outlook for the EFSF’s Aaa rating because it had done the same to three of the facility’s guarantors - Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg - earlier this week. On Tuesday officials representing Greece’s troika of international creditors arrived in Athens to assess the current situation. However, for most analysts the Greek exit already seems inevitable. The greenback’s gains are limited despite the gloomy outlook for Europe before US data this week may show the economy is slowing, adding to concern the Fed will ease policy.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks declined 0.7%. Declines in Asian stocks and concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening weigh on risk appetite, increasing demand for safe currencies: Aussie and kiwi trade near the lowest in more than three weeks against the yen. NZD/USD declines on low risk appetite even after a report showed New Zealand’s annual trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in the year through June; USD/CAD reached a two-week high on Tuesday. AUD/USD moves up after data showed CPI rose by 0.5% q/q after a previous increase by 0.1%. USD/JPY gravitates above 78.00 yen, set for further downtrend. Japan unexpectedly posted a trade surplus of $789 million in June, the Ministry of Finance said today. GBP/USD hovers around $1.5500 ahead of the UK GPD data release.
Events to watch today:
Germany: Ifo Business Climate
UK: - Preliminary GDP (Q2). The figures are expected to confirm the fears that the UK is still in recession: British economy may have fallen by 0.2% (q/q). This would be the third successive quarterly fall, and would mean that GDP is lower now than it was in the third quarter of 2010, and 3.9% below its pre-recession peak.
- CBI Industrial Order Expectations. The index improved in June coming better than expected. If this data are confirmed, hopes will rise that the UK will recover in Q3.
US: New home sales will likely continue to improve, though from a very low base.
New Zealand: The RBNZ meeting. Currency markets will be waiting for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision. According to Credit Suisse data, traders appear to be anticipating a 95% chance of no change to the current benchmark lending rate. Annual inflation is holding at the lower end of the RBNZ's annual target band of 1-3%, increasing the chances that the bank will keep the cash rate at a record low 2.50 % level until summer 2013. The rate was last lowered in March 2011.
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!