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AceTraderFx Mar 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Mar 2015 07:44GMT
GBP/USD - ..... Cable rebounds right at European open as a wave of broad-based buying in sterling lifted the pound. Although price briefly fell below yesterday's 1.5344 low to 1.5340, buying interest above last week's bottom at 1.5333 quickly pushed price higher.
Traders cited short-covering ahead of release of the very important U.K. February services PMI was the main factor behind the intra-day bounce.
As mentioned in previous update, street forecast is looking for a mildly upbeat reading of 57.5 vs previous fig. at 57.2, a stronger number should trigger further buying spree in the sterling.
For now, bids are noted at 1.5350-40 with fairly large stops below 1.5330 whilst offers are tipped at 1.5380/90 with stops above 1.5400.
Earlier the pound moves narrowly in subdued Asian trading on Wednesday following yesterday's roller-coaster move. Despite staging a recovery to 1.5398 at Euroepan open, traders gave cable a bashing n knocked price to session lows of 1.5344 at NY open but only to bounce back to 1.5393 due to dlr's renewed weakness, however, price pared intra-day gain and fell back to 1.5357 in Australia before stabilising.
Range trading above said yesterday's 1.5344 low is envisaged until the release of the last but most important U.K. February services PMI (the index showed the dominant services sector which accounts for 75% of activity in the UK economy).
Street forecast is looking for 57.5 vs previous reading of 57.2, a stronger-than-expected number wud spark off brad-based short-covering in the pound.
AceTraderFx Mar 5: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Mar 201501:41GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro languishes near Wednesday's fresh 11-year trough of 1.1061 in subdued Asian morning as traders sold the single currency ahead of today's ECB monetary meeting.
Reuters reported keen to keep a low profile over the Greek crisis, the ECB will focus on improved growth prospects when it meets today and unveil some but not all the details of its 1 tln euros-plus bond buying plan.
Meeting in Cyprus, the ECB will keep rates on hold, likely lift growth forecasts to reflect a string of positive data surprises but cut inflation projections as it incorporates the full effect of a dramatic oil price fall, backing its case to buy 60 bln euros worth of bonds a month from March to spur inflation.
Markets will be looking for how quantitative easing will work, when the buying will start, whether it applies to paper with negative yields and how the purchases will be distributed along the yield curve.
Anticipation of the QE programme has driven euro zone borrowing costs down to the point where Spain can borrow for 10 years at just 1.3% and investors actually pay for the privilege of lending to Germany for 5 years.
Yields in Italy, Spain and Portugal dropped to record lows this week.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia exports, imports, trade balance, retail sales, France unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, Italy GDP, UK BoE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, Canada Ivey PMI and U.S. jobless claims and factory orders.
AceTraderFx Mar 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Mar 2015 09:04GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Cable finally gains a bit of temporary respite in hectic European trading after weakening to a near 3-week low of 1.5225 ahead of European open.
Although st specs sold cable in Australia and knocked price from 1.5269, price remained under pressure in Asia and easily penetrated yesterday's 1.5250 low, price later fell to 1.5225 after tripping some stops below 1.5225.
Looks like European traders are reluctant to test cable's downside as MPC meets and even though the BoE policy announcement will be a non-event.
In the meantime, range trading above 1.5225 is expected with initial bids noted at 1.5235-25 with some stops (not large) below 1.5220.
Offers are tipped at 1.5265/75 and more above with stops above 1.5300.
British PM David Cameron on Thursday ruled out taking on opposition Labour party leader Ed Miliband in a head-to-head televised debate ahead of the May 7 national election.
While the Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck in the polls, Miliband has the most to gain from a head-to-head debate as his personal ratings are far lower than Cameron's.
A letter from Cameron's office said he would only take part in one debate and that it must include leaders from minor political parties, rejecting broadcasters' proposals to hold several debates, including a one-on-one debate with Miliband.
"There should be one 90 minute debate between seven party leaders," the letter said. It proposed including the anti-European Union party UKIP, Scottish n Welsh nationalists, the Green party and the junior coalition partner Liberal Democrats.
AceTraderFx Mar 6: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Mar 2015 02:14GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback rallied above 120.27 to an intra-day high of 120.40 on Thursday due to dollar's broad-based strength, U.S. dollar pared some of the gains today on profit-taking but renewed buying interest is located at 119.95-90 and more at 119.80 with stops only seen below 119.60 and 119.50.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 120.30-40 with stops seen above 120.50.
Yesterday despite Tuesday's sell off from 120.27 to 119.38, the greenback traded narrowly inside 119.50-119.83 range as focus was on the single currency.
Offers was tipped at 119.85-90 with stops seen above 120.00.
Nikkei-225 index then rebounded by 47 points to 18750. If Japanese shares rises more, it may lift the usd/jpy pair despite the sell off in eur/jpy.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan leading indicator, Germany industrial output, France exports, imports, budget balance, Swiss CPI, Italy producer prices, EU GDP, Canada building permits, exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, average earnings, unemployment rate and international trade.
AceTraderFx Mar 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/CHF)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Mar 2015 06:28GMT
USD/CHF- 0.9735 .... Swiss National Bank reports profit of 38.3 Bln CHF for 2014 Vs 9.1 Bln loss year-ago.
- SNP reports profit from forex positionsof 34.5 Bln CHF
- SNP reports gain on Gold valuation of 4.1 Bln CHF
- SNB says financial result depends largely on developments in the Gold, forex, and capital markets
- SNB says it is not possible to make any predictions about results this year
- SNB says does not exclude suspending or reducing profit Ddistributions in some years, due to considerable volatility in its results
News From Reuters, Fed's Williams said that if Europe, Japan were stronger, forecast for U.S. GDP growth would be closer to 4%.
Earlier, San Francisco Fed President John Williams (2015 voting member of FOMC) said:
- By Mid-Year, Fed Should Seriously Discuss Raising U.S. Rates
- Safer To Raise Rates Early, Gradually, Than Wait And Have To Hike Sharply
- Waiting Too Long To Raise Rates Risks Overshooting On Inflation
- Overshooting Could Force Sharp Rate Hikes, Destabilizing Markets And Damaging Recovery
- Sees Maximum Employment By Year End, If Not Sooner
- Sees Inflation Returning To Normal Over Next Two Years
AceTraderFx Mar 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Mar 2015 08:09GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Reuters reported earlier revised 4th-quarter Japanese data next Monday is likely to show capital spending was slightly stronger than expected, but overall economic growth was little changed from initial estimates, confirming the economy only managed to limp out of recession.
Among other key data next week, core machinery orders probably fell in January for the 1st time in three months largely due to a reactionary pullback after a jump in Dec.
Orders are an important indicator of capital spending in the coming 6 to 9 months. Firms' spending on plant and equipment and an increase in wages hold the keys to the ultimate success of PM Shinzo Abe's policy strategy to generate a virtuous demand cycle in the economy n end decades of deflation.
Corporations have been cautious about spending as they are worried about the outlook for the economic recovery, but analysts project strong corporate earnings n lower oil prices will help their spending.
Capital expenditure, one of the components of GDP, probably rose 0.3% for the quarter fm a preliminary 0.1% gain, the poll showed.
But the expected upward revision in the capex will not be strong enough to change the overall economic growth for the 4th quarter.
AceTraderFx Mar 6: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 06/03/2015 00:29 GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.9709
55 HR EMA
0.9664
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
13 HR RSI
73
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Marginal gain b4 correction
Resistance
0.9837 - 2.236 ext. of 0.9374-0.9547 fm 0.9450
0.9791 - 61.8% proj. of 0.8352-0.9347 fm 0.9176
0.9750 - Y'day's high
Support
0.9680 - Wed's high
0.9650 - Y'day's NY low
0.9593 - Wed's low
. USD/CHF - 0.9739... The pair is trading 100 points higher fm its rate 24hour ago as price moved in exact opposite direction to eur/usd due to the steady gain in eur/chf cross. Despite a retreat fm 0.9697 (Europe) to 0.9650 at NY open y'day, renewed weakness in eur/usd sent dlr climbing to 6-week high of 0.9749.
. Looking at the bigger picture 1st, as mentioned in recent updates, despite early free fall fm Jan's fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.0240 to a 40-month low of 0.7360 after SNB dropped the 1.20 franc cap, subsequent swift bounce had left a 'spike bottom' reversal pattern on the daily chart. Wed's resumption of said erratic upmove fm Jan's 4-month low at 0.7360 suggests price wud head twd 0.9791, this is 61.8% projection of 0.8352-0.9347 measured fm 0.9176. Having said that, as the hourly indicators wud display 'bearish divergences' on such rise, suggesting strg gain abv there wud not be seen n downside risk has increased for a much-needed correction to take place. Below 0.9550 wud be the 1st signal a temp. top is in place n yield retracement to 0.9593, then 0.9547.
. Today, as current price is trading abv the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying dlr on dips again is the way to go but 0.9830/40 shud cap upside.
AceTraderFx Mar 9: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Mar 2015 01:00GMT
USD/JPY ...... Comments from BOJ's Nakaso, quote:
- No Need To Respond Via Monetary Policy If Inflation Heading Toward 2 Pct As A Trend
- Need To Take Monetary Policy Action If Oil Price Falls Affect Long-Term Inflation Expectations, Make It Difficult To Hit 2 Pct Inflation
- BOJ Didn'T Ease Policy In October Last Year Directly In Response To Oil Price Falls
- Must Look At Various Indicators In Gauging Price Trend
- Expect Inflation Expectations To Heighten Steadily
- Timing Of Hitting 2 Pct Inflation May Change Somewhat Depending On Oil Price Moves
- Will Adjust Policy If There Is Change In Price Uptrend
- BOJ Is Aiming To Achieve Price Rises Accompanied By Economic Expansion, Increases In Corporate Revenues And Wages
- Effect Of Weak Yen Finally Starting To Boost Export Volume
Reuters reported earlier Japanese GDP rose an annualised 1.5% in the Oct-Dec quarter, revised gov't data showed on Mon, less than the preliminary reading of a 2.2% increase as capital expenditure weakened.
The median forecast was for 2.2% annualised growth in a Reuters poll of economists.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew 0.4% in the 4th quarter, the Cabinet Office data showed. That compared with a preliminary reading of a 0.6% increase n the median estimate of 0.6% growth.
Capital expenditure fell 0.1% fm the previous quarter, versus a preliminary 0.1% increase n below the median estimate of a 0.3% expansion.
Data to be released this week:
Japan current account, GDP, Germany imports, exports, trade balance, Swiss retail sales, EU sentix index and Canada housing startson Monday.
UK BRC retail sales, Australia NAB business conditions, business confidence, China CPI, PPI, Swiss unemployment, France industrial output, Italy industrial output, U.S. redbook retail sales, wholesale sales and wholesale inventories on Tuesday.
Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan CGPI, machinery orders, China industrial output, retail sales, France current account, UK industrial output, manufacturing output and U.S. Federal budget on Wednesday.
New Zealand RBNZ rate decision, Australia employment, Japan consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, France CPI, EU industrial production, UK trade balance, U.S. export prices, import prices, jobless claims, retail sales, business inventories and Canada capacity utilisation on Thursday.
Japan capacity utilisation, industrial output, Italy CPI and Canada employmenton Friday.
AceTraderFx Mar 9: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals GBP/USD
WEEKLY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 08 Mar 2015 23:49GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.5110
55 HR EMA
1.5188
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
27
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent decline
Resistance
1.5225 - Last Fri's NY high
1.5162 - Last Fri's European low (now res)
1.5117 - Minor hourly sup (now res)
Support
1.5025 - Intra-day low (NZ)
1.4988 - Feb 03 low
1.4952 - Jan 17-month low (23)
. GBP/USD - 1.5061 ... Cable continued its recent losing streak in tandem with eur/usd last week n fell to 1.5215 on Thur, the pound then tumbled to a 1-month trough of 1.5032 after a surprise sharp jump U.S. payrolls on Fri.
. On the bigger picture, as mentioned previously, cable's 'reversal' fm Feb's 8-week peak at 1.5554 confirms recent erratic upmove fm Jan's fresh 17-month bottom at 1.4952 has ended there n price is en route to re-test this sup lvl this week, a break there wud extend MT downtrend fm 2014 near 6-year peak at 1.7192 (Jul) to 1.4768, being 50% proj. of the MT intermediate fall fm 1.6525-1.4952 measured fm 1.5554. Having said that, as the daily technical indicators wud display prominent 'bullish convergences' on such move, reckon 1.4582 (61.8% proj.) wud remain intact this week n risk has increased for a correction to take place later this month. So whilst selling cable on recovery is favoured, profit shud be taken on decline. On the upside, only a daily close abv 1.5270 confirms temporary low is made n risks stronger retracement to 1.5393/98.
. Today, intra-day rebound fm 1.5025 (NZ) suggests initial choppy consolidation wud be seen in Asia b4 prospect of another decline later today.
AceTraderFx Mar 10: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Mar 2015 02:17GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Despite euro's brief rebound from Monday's fresh 11-1/2 year low at 1.0823 to 1.0907 (Europe) on short-covering, the single currency met renewed selling pressure there and fell again in Asia today. Stops below 1.0823 are now in focus but some bids are located at 1.0800. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.0850-60, 1.0880 and more at 1.0900.
Greece will continue to be in the spotlight this week. Reuters reported warning Greece it had "no time to lose", EZ ministers agreed technical talks between finance experts fm Athens n its international creditors would start on Wed with the aim of unlocking further funding.
The ECB's Governing Council is set to hold a teleconference on Thursday to discuss extending that emergency liquidity assistance (ELA), a person familiar with the matter said.
An opinion poll on Monday showed a large majority of Greeks want Athens to compromise to avoid having to leave the euro.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
UK BRC retail sales, Australia NAB business conditions, business confidence, China CPI, PPI, Swiss unemployment, France industrial output, Italy industrial output, U.S. redbook retail sales, wholesale sales and wholesale inventories.