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AceTraderFx Feb 9: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/CHF) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Feb 2015 00:09GMT
USD/CHF - ....... A piece of chf-bearish news which came out over the weekend which has not yet been reacted by the market.
The Swiss National Bank is prepared to intervene in foreign exchange markets and has room to lower already negative interest rates if necessary to weaken the franc, the central bank's chairman said.
"We are observing the exchange rate situation as a whole," Thomas Jordan told Swiss radio station SRF in an interview broadcast on Saturday. "If necessary we are active but as I said we do not speak about our transactions."
Jordan said it was important the SNB say nothing about possible transactions so that the central bank can have the biggest impact if it is required to intervene in the currency market.
Figures on monthly currency reserves and weekly sight deposits indicate the SNB is still actively curbing the franc, and a Swiss newspaper has reported that the central bank is unofficially targeting an exchange rate of 1.05-1.10 francs per euro.
Jordan said the negative interest rates are having a "strong impact" to make the franc less attractive, and signaled the central bank has room to push rates lower.
"There is certainly a limit for negative interest rates, but the question is where exactly that limit is," Jordan said.
"However, I believe at the current level of -0.75%, the limit certainly isn't reached yet."
Jordan said it was too early say exactly what impact removing the cap would have on the Swiss economy, but that growth n inflation would be lower than the SNB had previously forecast.
This week will see the release of:
Japan's Current Account, Consumer Confidence, Economy Watchers, China's Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Germany's Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, euro zone's Sentix Index, Canada's House Starts on Monday.
Japan's Tertiary Industry Index, Australia's Home Price Index, NAB Business Conditions, China's CPI, PPI, Switzerland's Unemployment, CPI, France's Industrial Output, Italy's Industrial Output, U.K.'s BRC Retail Sales, Industrial Output, Manufacturing Output, U.S. Redbook, Wholesale sales and Wholesale inventories on Tuesday.
Japan Market Holiday, Australia's Westpac Confidence, France Current Account, U.K.'s BoE quarterly inflation report, U.S. Federal Budget on Wednesday.
Japan's Corp Goods Price, Machinery Orders, U.K. RICS Housing Survey, Australia's Employment, Unemployment, Germany's CPI, HICP, euro zone's Industrial Production, Canada's New Housing Price Index, U.S.'s Retail sales, Business Inventories on Thursday.
France's GDP, Non-Farm Payrolls, Switzerland's Producer/Import Price, Italy's GDP, U.K. Construction O/P, euro zone's Trade Balance, Canada's Manufacturing Sales, U.S.'s Export Prices, Import Prices, University of Michigan Sentiment on Friday.
AceTraderFx Feb 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Feb 2015 08:06GMT
EUR/USD - .... Euro regains partial lost ground in early European trading after Fri's sell off to 1.1312. Although price came under renewed selling pressure in NZ after Greek PM Tsipras on Sunday rejected bailout ahead of EU meeting this Wednesday, short covering quickly emerged and price edged higher to 1.1340 in Asia.
Another round of buying at 1.1318 by European traders pushed price higher, tripping some stops above 1.1340, however, more offers are tipped at 1.1350/60 are likely to check intra-day rebound.
Choppy range trading is in store ahead of release of EZ Feb investor confidence at 09:30GMT. Street forecast is 3.0 vs prev. reading of 0.9.
This morning the single currency tumbled from 1.1488 to 1.1311 last Friday due to the release of robust U.S. jobs report, price further weakened to 1.1287 in NZ/AUS today before recovering on profit-taking. .
Investors are now focusing on the ongoing Greek debt saga and its potentially jarring impact as Leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras laid out plans on Sunday to dismantle Greece's "cruel" austerity programme, ruling out any extension of its international bailout and setting himself on a collision course with his European partners.
Besides, Euro zone finance ministers will meet at the Eurogroup gathering on Wednesday, at which the Greek finance minister has said he will present a comprehensive proposal. The European Council meeting takes place the following day.
AceTraderFx Feb 9: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 08 Feb 2015 23:19GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
118.49
55 HR EMA
117.97
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
13 HR RSI
69
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent upmove
Resistance
120.42 - 1.236 ext. of 115.85-118.87 fm 116.66
119.96 - Jan 08 high
119.32 - Jan 12 high
Support
118.50 - Jan 29 high (now sup)
118.00 - Last wed's high (now sup)
117.60 - Last Thur's high (now sup)
. USD/JPY - 119.01... The pair weakened initially to a 2-week low of 116.66 in the beginning of last week n then gyrated inside a 116.88-118.00 range until Fri when robust U.S. payrolls plus rising U.S. treasury yields sent price rallying sharply abv 118.00 res to a 3-week high of 119.23 in NY session.
. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr's strg rise to 119.22 on Fri lents credence to our recent broad consolidative view where the volatile price action fm Dec's 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is developing into a triangle, with a-leg trough at 115.57, 120.83 marked the b-leg top, the decline to Jan's low at 115.85 was the c-leg bottom. Last week's 3 legged rise fm 116.66 could either be the d-leg rebound which shud falter below 120.83 n yield one more e-leg decline or 116.66 may well be the e-led terminus. In either case, trading dlr fm the long side (our weekly strategy is currently holding a long position) is therefore favoured. Abv 120.83 anytime wud signal an 'upside break' has occured, then dlr wud head wtd 121.85 later this month.
. Today, as current price is trading abv the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying dlr on dips is the way to go as 118.40/50 wud hold but 119.96 res wud cap upside.
AceTraderFx Feb 10: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Feb 2015 01:15GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Market highlight will be EZ FinMins' meeting on Wednesday and Greece is at the top of the agenda. Reuters reported Greece and its EZ partners engaged in brinkmanship on Monday, with leftist PM Alexis Tsipras insisting his country would not extend its reform-linked bailout and Germany saying it would get no more money without such a program.
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned Greeks not to expect the euro zone to bow to Tsipras' demands in a growing confrontation which spooked financial markets and prompted U.S. and Canadian pleas for calm and compromise.
Escalating the rhetoric, Greece's FinMin said the euro zone could collapse "like a house of cards" if Athens were forced out. A Greek finance official said he did not believe Juncker, IMF chief Christine Lagarde or German Chancellor Angela Merkel would let Greece go bankrupt, but Merkel said Greece needed to come up with a sustainable proposal. "I think what counts is what Greece will put on the table," Merkel said at a news conference in Washington.
Visiting Austria on Monday, Tsipras said he was confident of striking a compromise with European partners in the coming days and renewed his appeal for a "bridge" arrangement until June to allow time to negotiate a restructuring of Greece's debt.
Tuesday will see the release of Japan's Tertiary Industry Index, Australia's Home Price Index, NAB Business Conditions, China's CPI, PPI, Switzerland's Unemployment, CPI, France's Industrial Output, Italy's Industrial Output, U.K.'s BRC Retail Sales, Industrial Output, Manufacturing Output, U.S. Redbook, Wholesale sales and Wholesale inventories.
AceTraderFx Feb 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Feb 2015 09:00GMT
GBP/USD - ..... Reuters news reported Britain should hold a referendum on its membership of the EU as soon as possible to reduce the damaging impact of uncertainty, the head of business group British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said on Tuesday.
PM David Cameron has promised to renegotiate U.K.'s ties with the euro zone ahead of a referendum in 2017 if he is re-elected in May, but has said he would like to hold the membership vote sooner if possible.
The opposition Labour party, which is neck-and-neck with Cameron's Conservatives in many polls ahead of May's national election, only plans to hold a referendum if there is a significant transfer of powers from London to Brussels.
"Our members say that they actually want a referendum. There is obviously a debate around a referendum at the moment ... that is creating uncertainty, so if we are going to have a referendum we ought to do it quickly," John Longworth, Director General of the BCC told BBC radio. Longworth said if Labour was elected it would come under "huge pressure" to hold a referendum n that would create yet more uneasiness.
"We have to come to a conclusion on these things and move on ... Uncertainty is bad for business," he said.
In a speech to the BCC annual conference later, Longworth will say his members support staying in a reformed EU but warn of a situation where all decisions are made by, and for, the euro zone.
"Without true reform, business support for the European project is far fm guaranteed.
Earlier UK FinMin George Osborne says 'danger of a miscalculation leading to very bad outcome between Greece n Eurozone is increasing.'
This morning Cable moves narrowly in quiet Asian trading after finding minor sup at 1.5200 just ahead of NY open Monday. Altough price staged a rebound in tandem with eur/usd, offers at 1.5245 capped intra-day bounce and price later traded inside a 1.5209-42 range for rest of NY session.
Yesterday's weakness in sterling vs eur & yen in NY suggests intra-day downside bias remains for decline from Friday's 1-month high at 1.5353 to resume once present sideways move is over, so selling cable on recovery is favoured.
At 09:30GMT, U.K. will release Dec industrial & manufacturing production.
AceTraderFx Feb 11: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Feb 2015 01:44GMT
EUR/USD - ...... A piece of Bloomberg's news report worth noting ahead of today's Eurogroup meeting. Currency volatility surged along with the U.S. dollar as Germany and Greece head for a showdown that is spurring traders to take out insurance against euro declines.
The premium to protect against a drop in the euro versus the greenback rose to the highest since January 23rd - the day after the ECB announced it would purchase sovereign bonds - before Greece's official creditors hold an emergency meeting.
A gauge of the dollar closed at its highest level in data going back to 2004 as comments from regional Federal Reserve presidents suggested policy makers could raise interest rates by mid year.
Traders paid more to protect against euro losses as German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble doused the outlook for Greece's meeting. There are no plans to give Greece more time to negotiate, and "it's over" if the nation doesn't want the final tranche of its existing aid program, Schaeuble told reporters in Istanbul after a G20 meeting.
Traders see 26% odds that the Fed will lift rates from a record low by the end of June, futures data showed.
Wednesdaywill see the release of Australia's Westpac Confidence, Housing Finance, France's Current Account, U.S. Federal Budget. Markets in Japan will be closed on Wednesday due to National Foundation Day.
AceTraderFx Feb 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Feb 2015 02:09GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The greenback rallied to as high as 119.62 on Tuesday on improved risk appetite due to dlr's broad-based strength. However, profit-taking offers capped dlr's upside somewhat.
Bids are now tipped at 119.30 and more at 119.20-10.
On the upside, some offers are noted at 119.55-60.
Bloomberg news reported that Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Group of 20 nations didn't criticize his monetary policy or discuss the yen's weakening.
Kuroda said "the G-20 has confirmed that each central bank can use appropriate policy to fulfill its mandate for price stability and there is no change in that stance".
The comments reinforce the idea that Kuroda's record stimulus fits with positions such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew's point that G-20 counterparts shouldn't resort to currency devaluations to spur economic growth.
Lew said last week that Japan's policies resulting in a weaker yen don't qualify as "unfair."
In other news, Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker told reporters on Tuesday after a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina that "the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates in June on the basis of stronger U.S. data."
Besides, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said economic conditions are "getting closer" to the point where it made sense to think about starting to normalise policy.
Trading is expected to be thin in Asia due to Japan's holiday today.
AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11/02/2015 00:04 GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
0.9258
55 HR EMA
0.9251
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
57
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.9382 - 50% proj. of 0.8935-0.9347 fm 0.9176
0.9347 - Last Mon's high
0.9289 - Last Fri's high
Support
0.9176 - Last Fri's low low
0.9167 - Jan 27 high (now sup)
0.9116 - Jan 29 Asian high
. USD/CHF - 0.9267... Although the greenback met selling interest at 0.9252 at Asian open Tue n fell to session low at 0.9215 at European open, price pared intra-day loss n climbed back to day's high at 0.9278 ahead of NY open. However, price moved narrowly in NY session on lack of follow-through buying.
. The broad outlook remains the same as prev. updates, where despite dlr's free fall fm Jan's fresh 2-1/2 yr peak of 1.0240 to a 4-month trough of 0.7360 after SNB dropped the 1.20 franc cap, subsequent swift bounce had left a spike bottom formation on the daily chart, suggesting a major low is in place. Despite dlr's retreat fm last Mon's 0.9347, as long as 0.9167 (prev. res) holds, outlook remains supportive for further headway to 0.9446, being 61.8% projection of the entire rise fm 0.7360-0.9131 measured fm 0.8352, however, as hourly indicators wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, reckon 0.9673 (50% proj. of 0.9352-0.9347 fm 0.9176) wud cap upside. Only a daily close below 0.9167 wud signal temporary top is made n risk retracement to 0.9116 but 0.8935 shud hold.
. Today, as long as 0.9176 (reaction low fm 0.9347) holds, buying dlr on dips is favoured but abv 0.9313 needed to yield subsequent gain twd 0.9347
AceTraderFx Feb 12: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Feb 2015 01:03GMT
EUR/USD - .....EU sources said some ministers were surprised that the informal tone extended to not bringing a written document outlining proposals. Varoufakis simply made oral statements.
Economists polled by Reuters this week estimated a one-in-four chance of Greece leaving the 19-nation single currency area this year - the highest reading since the start of the Greek debt crisis in late 2009.
EU leaders will take up the issue at their first summit with Tsipras on Thursday EU officials said they would be briefed on the ministerial talks but there would be no room for debt negotiation at a summit mostly devoted to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, fighting terrorism and longer-term reform of the euro zone's governance.
Varoufakis has proposed a 6-month transition in which Greece would be allowed to issue more short-term debt, receive the proceeds of ECB holdings of Greek bonds and tap unused bank rescue funds while renegotiating its debt. Athens would swap its euro zone loans for GDP-linked bonds and its ECB-held debt for interest-bearing perpetual bonds with no reimbursement date.
EU officials have said the most Greece can expect is a further extension of the repayment deadline for its euro zone loans, a lower interest rate and perhaps a prolonged moratorium on debt service payments, in return for continued reforms under some form of external supervision.
On Wednesday's 1st official talk between EU FinMins & Greece's FinMIn. Reuters reported Greece's new leftist gov't n its international creditors failed to agree on a way forward on the country's unpopular bailout and will try again next Monday, with time running out for a financing deal.
In 7 hours of crisis talks in Brussels that ended after midnight, EZ FinMins were unable to agree even a joint statement on the next procedural steps. Both sides played down the setback, insisting there had been no rupture.
In Athens, a Greek official said Varoufakis had discussed with IMF MD Christine Lagarde and Dijsselbloem some form of "bridge agreement" for funding the state once the current bailout deal expires.
Thursday will see the release of Japan's Corp Goods Price, Machinery Orders, Australia's Employment, Unemployment, Germany's CPI, HICP, euro zone's Industrial Production, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, BoE quarterly inflation report, Canada's New Housing Price Index, U.S.'s Retail sales, Jobless Claims and Business Inventories.
AceTraderFx Feb 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Feb 2015 2:26GMT
GBP/USD- 1.5227.. Cable swung wildly in Wednesday's session. Despite intra-day decline to 1.5233 at European open, active cross-buying of sterling sent price sharply higher, cable climbed to 1.5300 after tripping stops abv prev. day's 1.5276 high, however, offers at 1.5300/05 checked intra-day gain n cable later tumbled to 1.5219 shortly after European close on active unwinding in eur/gbp (the cross pair rebounded fm a fresh 7-year low of 0.7386 to 0.7425, then 0.7449 in Aust. earlier today) and traded narrowly in NY afternoon.
Although yesterday's decline is expected to keep cable under pressure, traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of release of the key BoE quarterly Inflation Report n the press conference by Governor Mark Carney. Until then, selling the pound on recovery is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 1.5250/60 n more at 1.5275/80 with stops reported abv 1.5300.
Bids are noted at 1.5220-00 with stops below 1.5190.
The main event of the week is the release of BoE quarterly Inflation Report today n the press conference by Governor Mark Carney. Reuters reported Carney will probably say on Thur that U.K. inflation will soon go negative, but the scale of its predicted bounce back might make investors rethink how long interest rates will stay at a record low.
A halving in global oil prices and last year's strengthening of the pound have pushed down inflation to its lowest level in nearly 15 years at 0.5%, way below the Bank's 2% target.
The shortfall is so big that Carney will have to explain it to Chancellor George Osborne. His open letter is due to be published at 10:30 GMT today, alongside the Bank's quarterly Inflation Report.
But neither Carney nor Osborne is likely to be too worried. Unlike in the euro zone, where falling prices have raised fears of damaging, Japan-style deflation, Britain's ultra-low price growth is expected to give a boost to the economy which is growing solidly.