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AceTraderFx Oct 21: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 21 Oct 2014 00:35GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.6141
55 HR EMA
1.6106
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
65
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
1.6227 - Oct 09 high
1.6200 - 50.0% r of 1.6525-1.5875
1.6179 - Y'day's high
Support
1.6127 - Hourly chart
1.6080 - Y'day's low
1.6030 - Last Fri's low
. GBP/USD- 1.6164 ... Despite y'day's brief retreat to session low at 1.6080 at European open, the British pound pared intra-day loss n rose to 1.6151 at NY open, helped by active cross-buying of sterling vs euro. Price continued to trade with a firm bias n climbed to a high of 1.6179 in NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rally abv last Fri's high at 1.6126 suggests MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 has formed a temporary low at last Wed's fresh 11-month trough at 1.5875 n consolidation with upside bias wud be seen for a stronger retrace. to 1.6200, being the 'natural' 50% r of intermediate fall fm 1.6525. Having said that, as hourly oscillators wud wud display bearish divergences on next rise, reckon res at 1.6227 (Oct 09 high) shud remain intact n bring a much-needed retreat later. On the downside, only below last Fri's low at 1.6030 wud indicate said recovery has ended instead n turn outlook bearish for weakness twds 1.5940.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we're trading cable on both sides of the market n buy on intra-day retreat for marginal gain twd 1.6200 or sell if price
climbs to there 1st for a much-needed retracement. Below 1.6080, 1.6030/40.
AceTraderFx Oct 22: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Oct 2014 01:45GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The pair pares yesterday's gain and retreats in Tokyo morning due to intra-day broad-based pullback in the greenback following yesterday's rally together with present retreat in the Nikkei (the N225 trimmed initial 325-point gain, now at 15025, up by 221 points).
Despite extending o/n rise in NY session to 107.11 in Australia, selling interest emerged after dlr showed muted reaction on Japan's trade data, price retreated to 106.86 in Asian morning.
Looks like range trading is in store and as long as the Nikkei can hold on to intra-day gain after yesterday's broad-based rise in global stocks, buying on dips is favoured.
Bids are noted at 106.80-70 and more below with some stops below 106.50. Initial offers are tipped at 107.05/15 with stops above 107.20, more stops are touted above 107.40.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
the release of Japan imports, exports and trade balance,
Australia inflation,
BoE minutes,
UK BoE MPC vote,
Canada retail sales,
BoC rate decision,
U.S. weekly earnings and CPI.
AceTraderFx Oct 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Oct 2014 02:26GMT
EUR/USD- ...... Euro is nursing loss in Asia after yesterday's sell off from 1.2840 to as low as 1.2706 in Australia earlier today.
Despite extending Monday's gain to 1.2840 in early European trading, heavy offers at 1.2840 checked intra-day gain and short-term euro bulls unwound their longs.
Breaking Reuters news of ECB was mulling corporate bond purchase as soon as at its December's meeting for such action in early 2015 triggered broad-based selling in euro, price tanked to 1.2745 and despite a brief short-covering bounce to 1.2784, another wave of selling emerged and pressured price to 1.2716 in NY morning.
Euro edged lower to 1.2706 in Australia but talk of bids at 1.2725/00 lifted price in Asian morning.
Yesterday's sell off suggests daily downside bias remains and there has been talk of fairly large stops building below 1.2700 as last Wednesday's rally to 1.2888 after downbeat U.S. retail sales and subsequent sideways trading had lured euro buyers.
Offers are noted at 1.2740/50 and more above with some stops touted above 1.2780. Initial bids are noted at 1.2705-00 with stops below there.
Although euro is expected to remain under pressure on the ECB corporate bond buy plan in Europe, pay attention to release of U.S. inflation data (forecast for annual Sep core CPI is 1.7%).
If actual reading is below estimate, usd may fall broadly as this will dampen prospect of Fed tightening in 2015.
AceTraderFx Oct 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Oct 2014
USD/JPY- ...... News report about Etsuro Honda, an economic adviser to Japanese PM Shinzo Abe said that the next sales tax hike should be delayed by a year and half, until Apr 2017, given the big risk that the tax increase would pose for the country's fragile economy.
Honda made the comments to reporters after a meeting of more than 40 ruling party lawmakers who are growing wary about the planned sales tax hike late next year.
"There's a great danger from the next sales tax hike given the current situation where positive effects of Abenomics and negative impact of April's sales tax hike are offsetting each other," he said, referring to Abe's reflationary policies.
"So I told them that the next tax hike should be postponed by a year and half until April 1, 2017" after Japan can ensure that deflation is conquered, he said.
Honda said Abe remained neutral on a sales tax decision. He added that postponing the planned tax hike won't cause a loss of market confidence in Japan's public finances, but it would rather help boost share prices because such decision would be seen supportive for the economy.
Earlier, Japan's trade data was released with both positive & negative interpretations.
Reuters reported 6.exports in September expanded at the fastest pace in 7 months by 6.9% annually due partly to yen's weakness. However, imports climbed sharply to 6.2 % (vs forecast of 3.0%) due to weak yen.
Therefore, yen's weakness works in favour of the Japanese exporters but against importers. The trade balance came to a deficit of 958.3 bln yen (8.96 bln USD) vs estimated 777.0 bln yen deficit.
Under performing exports have been one of the weak links in the Japanese economy, which is struggling to cope with an Apr hike in the sales tax to 8% fm 5%. Japan's economy shrank an annualised 7.1% in the 2nd quarter, with the tax hike causing the biggest contraction since the 2009 global financial crisis.
The economy is forecast to resume expansion in the 3rd quarter, but the pace could be very slow, which would fuel speculation that the gov't will delay a second sales tax hike to 10% scheduled for next year.
AceTraderFx Oct 22: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 22 Oct 2014 00:33GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.2741
55 HR EMA
1.2761
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
32
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.2888 - Last Wed's 3-week high
1.2840 - Y'day's high n last Thur's NY high
1.2784 - Y'day's hourly res
Support
1.2706 - Last Thur's low
1.2669 - Last Tue's European morning high
1.2625 - Last Wed's low
. EUR/USD - 1.2715... Despite euro's initial brief rise to 1.2840 in Europe on Tue, the single currency n then tumbled after Reuters reported the ECB was planning on corporate bond purchase as early as Dec. The pair weakened to as low as 1.2715 near NY close n then marginally lower to 1.2706 in Australia today.
. Although last week's rally to 1.2888 (Wed) signals the MT downtrend fm 2014 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 (May) has formed a temporary bottom at Oct's 2-year low at 1.2500, y'day's selloff suggests 1st leg of said corrective upmove has ended there n as long as hourly chart res at 1.2784 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, a firm breach of 1.2706 sup (reaction low fm last Wed's 1.2888 high) wud add credence to the abv view n bring further weakness twd 'dynamic' sup at 1.2648 (this is 61.8% r of 1.2500-1.2888) but reckon pivotal sup at 1.2605 wud remain intact. On the upside, only a rise abv 1.2888 res wud bring a stronger correction to 1.2958, this a 'minimum' 38.2% r of MT intermediate fall fm 1.3700 (Jul high).
. Today, we're holding a short position in anticipation of further weakness n wud take profit on next decline as 1.2648 shud remain intact.
AceTraderFx Oct 23: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Oct 2014 01:26GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr pares Wed's gain in early Tokyo trading as intra-day retreat in the Nikkei (currently down 102 points at 15093 after yesterday's 2.5% rally) has led to intra-day renewed buying in yen.
Although the pair climbed in NY morning after U.S. CPI ticked higher and touched session high of 107.38, offers at Monday's 107.39 top checked intra-day gain and price edged lower near NY close.
Looks like range trading would continue in Asia, unless the Nikkei falls sharply, re-test of 107.28/39 is on the card.
Bids are noted at 107.00 and more below would stops below 106.80-75.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 107.45/50 with stops above there, however, more selling interest is reported at 107.80/00 area.
Thursday will see the release of New Zealand CPI, Japan manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, France business climate, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Italy trade balance, UK retail sales, CBI trends, U.S. home price index, jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, leading index and consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Oct 23: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 23 Oct 2014 00:11GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
107.11
55 HR EMA
106.98
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
56
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
One more rise b4 strg retreat
Resistance
107.65 - 50% r of 110.09-105.20
107.49 - Last Wed's high
107.39 - Mon's high
Support
106.79 - Y'day's low
106.58 - Tue's NY low
106.25 - Tue's low
. USD/JPY - 107.18 ... Despite y'day's initial retreat fm Australian high at 107.11 to 106.79 in European morning, the greenback ratcheted higher n then rose to a session high at 107.38 in NY morning after release of slightly higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data b4 easing due to retreat in U.S. equities.
. Dlr's rise fm Tue's low at 106.25 to 107.38 suggests early pullback fm Mon's high at 107.39 has indeed ended there n despite subsequent retreat in NY y'day, downside wud be ltd to 106.79 n as long as said Tue's 106.25 low holds, consolidation abv last Wed's 5-week trough at 105.20 wud continue with mild upside bias for further headway to 107.65 (50% r of 110.09-105.20), however, as hourly indicators wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, 108.01 (prev.sup, now res) wud cap upside n yield resumption of decline fm Oct's 6-year peak at 110.09later this month, present 'falling' daily indicators (macd has cut below the zero line) add credence to this bearish view.
. In view of abv analysis, buying dlr on dips in anticipation of another corrective rise twd 107.65 is still favoured but position traders shud sell dlr on next upmove. Below 106.25 signals recovery is over, risks re-test of 105.20.
AceTraderFx Oct 24: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Oct 2014 01:49GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Just when the market gave a green light to buy the dlr/sell the yen on Thursday after yesterday's upbeat data in the euro zone (PMIs) and the U.S. (falling jobless claims, rising leading indicators), news on the 1st diagnosed case of Ebola in New York knocked the wind off the USD, knocking the pair briefly to 107.87 in Tokyo as the news triggered a bout of yen buying on risk aversion.
Nikkei pared initial gain after the N225 futures rallied 300 points (Nikkei spot index is currently up 142 points at 15280) & S&P futures are trading in negative territory.
Unless the Nikkei heads higher again later in the day once current Ebola scare subsides, range trading with downside bias is seen.
For now, offers are tipped at 108.10/20 and more above with stops above yesterday's NY high at 108.36.
Initial bids are noted at 107.85-80 and more below with stops touted below 107.40-35.
Japan's FinMin Taro Aso talked about the importance to proceed with sales tax plan as scheduled to maintain trust in JGB market.
Aso continued to say that the MoF will continue to communicate with markets to make sure discount bills and JGBs are auctioned smoothly.
Last night the greenback maintained a firm undertone due to renewed risk aversion as Dow Jones index rallied by more than 225 points or 1.37% to 16654. Besides, U.S. 2-year treasuries note yield climbs near 0.4%, highest in more than a week.
Bids were located at 108.10-05 n more at 107.90-80.
On the upside, some offers were tipped at 108.40-45 with mixture of stops n offers is seen at 108.50.
Fridaywill see the release of New Zealand trade balance, imports, exports, China house prices, Germany consumer sentiment, Italy retail sales, UK GDP and U.S. new home sales.
AceTraderFx Oct 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Oct 2014 05:00GMT
GBP/USD- ...... Cable fell yesterday to a near 1-week low after U.K. retail sales showed continued slowdown consumer spending & industrial orders, damping expectation on timing of the BoE's rate hike in 2015.
Britain's brisk economic recovery is showing more signs of cooling after shoppers bought less, exporters took a hit fm Europe's slump and banks approved the fewest mortgages in more than a year.
Data released on Thursday underscored why the BoE is signalling that it is in no rush to raise interest rates, even as U.K.'s economic growth continues to outpace that of most other industrialised nations.
Earlier, BoE deputy governor Ben Broadbent had said that any future rise in interest rates was likely to be gradual, and that underlying interest rates - which dictate investment returns n BoE policy - would stay low for some time.
In a third set of figures, factory export orders in the 3 months to Oct fell to their lowest level since the start of last year as Europe's slowdown took its toll on British manufacturers.
Today's prelim. Q3 GDP data are expected to show growth cooled in the 3 months to Sep to a quarterly 0.7% fm 0.9% in the Apr-Jun period. A further slowdown is possible in the final 3 months of the year.
The recovery in Britain's economy has pushed the unemployment rate down to 6%. But pay is still lagging behind inflation, a reflection in part of how many people have found work in low-paying industries.
A survey published on Thursday showed the biggest fall in 4 years in one measure of consumer confidence as many of those workers feared they could lose their jobs as the economy cools off.
This morning, although cable recovered in tandem with euro in Euroepan trading on Thursday and rose to 1.6052 in NY morning after early intra-day sell off to 1.5995 after downbeat U.K. retail sales reports, price retreated to 1.6021 near NY close and then moved narrowly in Asia.
Looks like range trading above yesterday's low at 1.5995 would continue in Asia as traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of the release of important U.K. preliminary estimate for Q3 GDP at 08:30GMT.
According to consensus forecast, UK GDP growth in third quarter is expected to have slowed down to an annual rate of 0.7% fm 0.9% in previous quarter due to the significant deceleration in the euro zone, which had been driven down by the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine.
Therefore, despite Thur's rebound fm 1.5995, selling cable on recovery is still the favorable strategy.
AceTraderFx Oct 27: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Oct 2014 02:00GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Although dlr 'gapped-up' higher to a fresh 2-week peak at 108.37 in Australia after Reuters reported Sun a Yomiuri poll showed public approval for Japan PM Abe's government has slumped, lack of follow-through buying n continued concerns over the Ebola case in NY prompted profit-taking. Dlr later retreated to 107.93 in Tokyo morning.
Today, dlr's retreat from 108.37 suggests initial consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen ahead European open but as long as 107.79 (Fri's low in NY) holds, outlook remains mildly bullish for marginal gain after consolidation n therefore, buying dlr on dips is the favoured strategy. Bids are noted at 108.00-107.90 with mixture of bids n stops at 107.80/75 n further out at 107.50/45. On the upside, offers are placed at 108.30-40 n then 108.50 with stops emerging just above 108.80.
The coming weekwill see the release of German Ifo business climate, U.K. CBI distributive trades, U.S. Markit services PMI flash, pending sales change and revised building permits change on Monday.
Japan's retail sales, German import index, U.S. durable goods, Redbook, CaseShiller house price, consumer confidence on Tuesday.
Japan's industrial output, New Zealand ANZ bussiness outlook, U.K. mortgage approval and mortgage lending, Canada's producer prices, FOMC rate decision and Fed's monetary policy statement on Wednesday.
RBNZ rate decision, Australia's HIA new home sales, import and export prices, U.K. Nationwide house prices, Swiss KOF indicator, German unemployment rate, EU business climate, economic sentiment and final consumer confidence, U.S. jobless claims, GDP in Q3 and core PCE, German CPI and HICP on Thursday.
Japan's all household spending, CPI and unemployment, GfK consumer confidence, Australia's PPI, Bank of Japan monetary statement, construction orders, housing starts, BOJ press conference, BOJ outlook report, EU inflation and unemployment, U.S. PCE price index, personal real consumption and income, core PCE price index, Canada's GDP and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.