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AceTraderFx Jan 2: Dollar ends mixed on last trading day in 2013
Market Review - 01/01/2014 02:37GMT
Dollar ends mixed on last trading day in 2013
The dollar traded mixed against major currencies in subdued holiday trde on Tuesday, as market sentiment improved ahead of the year end although the greenback remained supported on dips.
Earlier in Asia, the single currency retreated after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.3812 and price dropped to 1.3760 in European morning. Later, despite a brief bounce to 1.3794, release of better-than-expected consumer confidence data in New York morning pressured euro and price weakened to sessn lows of 1.3740 near New Yok close
U.S. consumer confidence improved to 78.1 in December from 72.0 in November, beating consensus forecasts for a 76.0 reading.
Versus the Japanese yen, U.S. dollar traded in a choppy fashion near Monday's 5-year peak at 105.41 on Tuesday. Despite an initial drop from Australian high of 105.15 to 104.86 in Asian trading, the pair found support in New York trading as robust U.S. consumer confidence data sparked demand for the greenback amid hopes for U.S. recovery to gain steam in 2014. Dollar later rose to a fresh intra-day high of 105.36 near New York close.
Although cable remained under pressure in tandem with euro in Asia and fell to 1.6475, active cross-buying of sterling versus euro gave support to the pair and British pound later ratcheted higher above last Friday's 2-year peak at 1.6578 to 1.6580 in New York afternoon before easing.
On the data front, U.K. Lloyds Business Barometer dropped to 48 in December from 50 in previous month. U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller home price index in October came in at 1.05% m/m and 13.61% y/y, better than the forecast of 0.95% and 13.45% respectively.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
China manufacturing PMI on Wednesday. New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Switzerland, Germany, France, U.K., U.S., Canada financial markets closed due to public holiday.
AceTraderFx Jan 2, 2013: Weekly market outlook on USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - 105.31
31 Dec 2013 05:46GMT
Dlr's intra-day resumption upmove to a fresh 5-
year peak of 105.41 suggests uptrend fm 2011 record
low at 75.32 wud head twd 106.23, however, o/bot
condition shud prevent strg gain this week n reckon
projected res at 107.06 shud cap upside, risk has
increased for a correction to occur in Jan 2014.
Still favour buying dlr on dips for this move n
only below 103.77 confirms temporary top is finally
in place, risks stronger retracement twd 102.50.
STRATEGY : Buy at market
OBJECTIVE : 106.55
STOP-LOSS : 104.60
RES : 105.41/106.23/107.06
SUP : 104.64/103.77/102.50
AceTraderFx Jan 3: Euro weakens on economic recovery concerns
Market Review - 02/01/2014 22:30GMT
Euro weakens on economic recovery concerns
The single currency weakened against the dollar on Thursday, as the release of mixed manufacturing activity reports from the euro zone added to concerns over the strength of the economic recovery in the region.
During the day, despite euro's initial rise to 1.3776 in Asian morning, renewed selling interest capped intra-day gain there and price later fell to 1.3716 in European morning and then further to 1.3630 on risk aversion in New York trading before stabilizing.
France's manufacturing PMI fell to a 7-month low of 47.0 in December, from 47.1 in November, compared to expectations for the index to remain unchanged. A separate report showed Germany's manufacturing PMI rose to a 30-month high of 54.3 in December, from a reading of 54.2 the previous month.
Versus the yen, U.S. dollar traded sideways in Asian session and before rising above Monday's high at 105.41 to a fresh 5-year high at 105.45 near European midday, however, profit-taking pressured and risk aversion on falling U.S. equity markets pressured price lower in New York trading and price dropped to 104.55 before stabilizing.
U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending December 28 declined by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 339,000.
Although cable rose to fresh 2-year high at 1.6605 in Asian trading, lack of follow through buying prompted profit-taking and the British pound later dropped to 1.6540 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.K. manufacturing PMI before tumbling to 1.6410 in New York morning on broad-based strength in greenback.
U.K. manufacturing PMI came in at 57.3 in December, weaker than the forecast of 58.1.
Data to be released on Friday:
China non-manufacturing PMI, Swiss KOF indicator, PMI, U.K. construction PMI, mortgage approvals, CPI, HICP on Friday. Financial markets in Japan and China will be closed due to public holiday.
AceTraderFX Jan 3: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 12220
03 Jan 2014 01:35GMT
Y'day's strg rebound fm 12140 suggests correction
last Fri's 5-yr peak at 12275 has ended there n up
side bias remains for a re-test of said res.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated n only below
12140 wud abort bullishness, risk 12100.
STRATEGY : Buy at 12190
OBJECTIVE : 12270
STOP-LOSS : 12150
RES : 12250/12275/12300
SUP :12140/12100/12050
AceTraderFX Jan 3: Daily Outlook on Major USD/JPY
DAILY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY - 104.10
03 Jan 2014 05:12 GMT
Despite y'day's brief rise to a fresh 5-year top at 105.45, subsequent selloff to 104.55 suggests a temp. top has been made there n consoldation with downside bias wud be seen for weakness to 104.30/32 , however, sup 103.77 shud hold n yield rebound.
Sell on recovery n only abv 104.45 wud risk marginal gain to 104.66 but 104.88/91 shud hold.
STRATEGY : Hold short
POSITION : Short at 104.35
OBJECTIVE : 103.55
STOP-LOSS : 104.75
RES : 104.55/104.87/105.24
SUP : 104.14/103.77/103.42
AceTraderFx Jan 6: Euro falls broadly on broad-based demand for USD
Market Review- 04/01/2014 01:19GMT
Euro falls broadly on broad-based demand for USD
The single currency fell to a one-month low against the U.S. dollar on Friday due to renewed broad-based demand for the safe-haven dollar despite positive Spanish unemployment data released earlier in the trading session.
Earlier in the day, euro edged lower after meeting selling interest at 1.3673 in Australia and price briefly penetrated Thursday's low at 1.3630 to 1.3629 in European morning before staging a minor recovery. However, active cross-selling of euro on risk-aversion in New York session pressured price again and the single currency subseqeuntly weakened to a fresh 1-month low at 1.3582 and price traded near 1.3590 at New York close.
Versus Japanese yen, dollar tumbled from 104.87 to as low as 104.08 in Asian trading due to a 2% decline in the Nikkei futures. Later, dollar recovered to 104.54 in Europe as Nikkei futures turned positive. The greenback later pared all its intra-day loss in New York session and climbed to 104.89 near New York close.
Although cable found support at 1.6422 in Asian trading and then rebounded to 1.6474 in European morning after mixed U.K. economic reports, renewed cross-selling of sterling pressured price lower ahead of New York open and pound later fell further to 1.6395 in New York morning.
The Market U.K. construction PMI for December came in at 62.1 versus forecast of 62.0 but down from November's reading of 62.6. A separate report showed that the number of new home loans approved in the U.K. reached the highest monthly total in November in more than five years to 70,758, while the amount of mortgage lending in money terms declined from previous month's 1.22 billion pounds to 0.91 billion pounds (lowest since May).
In other news, Fed's Plosser says 'despite cut to bond-buying, Fed balance sheet still growing "at fairly rapid clip"; need to return balance sheet to predominantly all treasuries portfolio; concerned more with too-high inflation than too-low given $ 2.4 trillion in excess bank reserves; warns interest rates could rise "fairly quickly" if banks quickly release reserves; very hard to know accumulated distortions of ultra low rates for up to 6 years.'
Data to be released next week :
China HSBC services PMI, Germany export, import, trade balance, service PMI, CPI, HICP, Italy service PMI, EU Sentix investors’ confidence, France service PMI, U.K. service PMI, U.S. durable goods, factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing index, Canada PPI, CPI on Monday.
Australia trade balance, France consumer confidence, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU PPI, CPI, U.S. trade balance, Redbook retail sales, Canada trade balance, import, export, Ivery PMI on Tuesday.
U.K. BRC retails sales, Germany trade balance, export, import, CPI, current account, Italy unemployment rate, EU retail sales, unemployment rate, Germany factory orders, U.S. ADP unemployment change on Wednesday.
Australia retail sales, building approvals, France trade balance, U.K. trade balance, industrial production, BOE rate decision, EU business climate, economic sentiment, consumer confidence, ECB rate decision, Canada housing starts, building permit, new housing price index, U.S. jobless claim on Thursday.
Japan leading indicators, U.K. RBC retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing production, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, Canada unemployment rate, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earning, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jan 6: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1065.8
06 Jan 2014 05:51GMT
As usd has staged rebound fm Thur's 1048.3 low,
suggesting LT decline has made a temp. low there n
further gain to 1070.6 wud be seen.
Stand aside n look to buy on dips. Only below
1057.1 wud damepn bullishness n risk 1054.9.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 1070.6/1074.2/1079.0
SUP : 1057.1/1054.9/1052.6
AceTraderFx Jan 7: U.S. dollar retreats after weak ISM PMI data
Market Review - 06/01/2014 22:46GMT
U.S. dollar retreats after weak ISM PMI data
The single currency turned higher on Monday on short-covering together with dollar's broad-based weakness as data showed service sector activity in the U.S. slowed unexpectedly in December, led lower by a drop in new orders.
During the day, although the single currency remained under pressure in Asia and penetrated Friday's low at 1.3582 to a fresh 1-month trough at 1.3572 ahead of European opening, lack-of-follow through selling prompted short-covering and euro later rebounded to 1.3622 in European trading and then further to 1.3653 in New York morning after weak U.S. data.
The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing manager's index declined to 53.0 in December from 53.9 in November, worse than the forecast of an increase to 54.5.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar tumbled in Asian trading after an initial rise to 104.95 with sharp falls in Japan equities market bolstering safe haven demand for the yen (Nikkei 225 index close down by 2.35% to 15,908.88). Dollar dropped to as low as 104.15 but failure to penetrated last Friday's low at 104.08 prompted short-covering and dollar later climbed back to 104.84 in New York before falling to 103.91 again after disappointing U.S. economic reports.
Cable ratcheted lower in Asia after penetrating Friday's low at 1.6395 and dropped to a fresh 1-week low at 1.6337 in European morning after data showed Markit/CIPS Services Purchasing Managers Index declined to a six month low of 58.8 in December from 60.0 in November, however, renewed weakness of dollar versus European currencies lifted price later in the day and cable rose above New Zealand high of 1.6420 to 1.6434 in New York morning before easing.
On the data front, euro zone showed the bloc's services PMI came in at 51.0 in December, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and down slightly from 51.2 in November. Separate reports showed that activity in Spain's private sector expanded at the fastest rate in 77 months, but activity in France and Italy contracted last month.
In other news, data over the weekend showed that activity in China's services sector slumped to the weakest level since August 2011 in December, fueling concerns over the outlook for growth in the world's second largest economy.
Data to be release on Tuesday:
Australia trade balance, France consumer confidence, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU PPI, CPI, U.S. trade balance, Redbook retail sales, Canada trade balance, import, export and Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Jan 7 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2716
07 Jan 2014 06:28GMT
Usd's breach of Dec's high at 1.2698 signals er
ratic upmove fm 1.2343 (Oct) has resumed n upside
bias wud be seen for gain to 1.2731 n 1.2758 later.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated, below wud
signal temp. top has made n risk 1.2645.
STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2695
OBJECTIVE : 1.2750
STOP-LOSS : 1.2670
RES : 1.2731/1.2758/1.2766
SUP : 1.2673/1.2645/1.2618
AceTraderFx Jan 8: Dollar strengthens after upbeat U.S. trade data
Market Review - 07/01/2014 21:37GMT
Dollar strengthens after upbeat U.S. trade data
Dollar rose against its major peers on Tuesday after a report showed that the U.S. trade deficit shrank to the lowest level in four years in November, however, gain was limited as investors were eyeing Wednesday's minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting and Friday's U.S. jobs report for December for further indications on the possible timing of reductions in Fed stimulus.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar retreated after a brief rise to 104.62 in Asia in part due to cross-buying in yen, however, gains in the Nikkei futures gave support to the pair and dollar rose from European morning low at 104.25 to 104.74 in early New York trading after upbeat U.S. trade data.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to a four-year low of USD 34.25 billion in November from a deficit of USD 39.33 billion in October, whose figure was revised from a previously reported deficit of USD 40.6 billion.
Although euro rebounded after finding support at 1.3611 in early European trading and then rose to 1.3657 ahead of New York open, broad-based rebound in greenback after release of strong U.S. trade balance data pressured price lower to session low at 1.3596 in New York morning, however, euro pared intra-day loss in New York afternoon to 1.3640 before easing near the close.
Earlier, report showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro zone slowed to 0.8% in December from 0.9% the previous month, fuelling fresh concerns over the threat of deflation in the currency bloc.
Similarly, although cable remained under pressure in Asia and then dropped to 1.6376 in European morning, price rose in tandem with euro ahead of New York open and penetrated Monday's New York high of 1.6434 to 1.6439 but only to tank to 1.6374 later in the day due to dollar's broad-based rebound.
In the other news, Fed's Rosengen says 'stimulus should be removed only gradually as economy continues to improve; Fed missing inflation, employment mandates by "fairly large margins"; inflation persistently below 2% a concern, leaves economy vulnerable; economic conditions improving; expects 3% growth in 2014.'
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams told reporters after a speech that "the Federal Reserve will make gradual cuts to its massive bond- buying program in coming months as long as the economy continues to improve, and only a significant deviation from those expectations would force it to change tack."
Data to be release on Wednesday:
U.K. BRC retails sales, Halifax house price Germany trade balance, export, import, current account, factory orders, Italy unemployment rate, EU retail sales, unemployment rate, n U.S. ADP unemployment change.