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AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily OUtlook on Minors/ Crosses NZD/USD
DAILY NZD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.8210
20 Dec 2013 02:07GMT
Intra-day rebound suggests fall fm last wk's top
at 0.8336 has made a low at 0.8152 Thur n 'choppy'
trading abv Nov's trough at 0.8085 wud continue.
Venture buying for 0.8885/90 but 0.8310/20 shud
cap upside. Only below 0.8173 risks 0.8152, 0.8140.
STRATEGY : Buy at market
OBJECTIVE : 0.8285
STOP-LOSS : 0.8175
RES : 0.8239/0.8290/0.8321
SUP : 0.8181/0.8152/0.8085
AceTraderFx 20: WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ON USD/JPY
WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ON USD/JPY
19 Dec 2013 15:44GMT
. USD/JPY - 104.15 ... Dollar's rally abv this year's high at 103.74 (May)
confirms an upside break of the 'triangle' consolidation fm there has ended
earlier at 93.75 n LT rise fm record low at 75.32 (Oct 2011) has resumed for
further gain to 105.51 n then twds 107.06 in Q1 2014.
. Our labelling of the low at 79.75 major wave [3] trough n 147.64 is the
major wave [4] terminus. The decline fm 147.64 is the 'final' wave [5] which has
'possibly' ended at 75.32 in Oct 2011, the subsequent rally is an impulsive wave
with 1::75.32-84.18; 2:77.13 n we are taking the view that wave 3 has ended at
103.74 n wave 4 ended with a triangle with a:103.74-93.78, b:101.53, c:95.79:
d:100.62 n e:96.55 n wave 5 is now in progress for further gain to 107.06, being
50% projection of 77.13-103.74 measured fm 93.75 later this month or in Q1 2014.
On the downside, only below 101.53 (b-leg top) wud signal a temp. top is
made n risk retrace. to 100.00 but strg buying interest shud emerge well abv
daily sup at 96.55.
AceTraderFx Dec 23 : Dollar turns lower against major currencies on long liquidation
Market Review - 20/12/2013 20:24GMT
Dollar turns lower against major currencies on long liquidation
The dollar turned lower against other major currencies on Friday on long liquidation, erased early gains on upbeat U.S. economic growth data and the Federal Reserve's decision to begin tapering its stimulus program.
During the day, although euro remained under pressure in Asia and fell to 1.3625 after Standard & Poor's cut its supranational long-term rating on the European Union to AA+ from AAA, cross-related buying of euro lifted price to 1.3663 in early European trading before dropping back to 1.3632 in New York morning on upbeat U.S. gross domestic product data. Later, dollar's renewed broad-based weakness lifted price again and price subsequent rallied to 1.3710 after report showed improving euro zone consumer confidence in December before retreating, last seen around 1.3667 near New York closing.
On the data front, report showed U.S. gross domestic product advanced 4.1 percent in third quarter, the fastest in two years and the second biggest since the country's steep recession officially ended in mid-2009.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar edged higher in Asia and briefly rose to 104.59 before easing, price later strengthened to a fresh 5-year peak at 104.64 in New York morning after release of better-than-expected U.S. GDP and personal consumption, however, lack of follow through buying prompted long liquidation and price subsequent tumbled to 103.85 before stabilising.
Cable tracked euro's movement closely on Friday, although price penetrated Thursday's low at 1.6335 in European morning to 1.6319 and then rebounded to 1.6369, price fell again and hit a fresh session low at 1.6315 in New York morning but only to rallied to 1.6395 before easing.
Earlier, official data showed that the U.K. current account deficit widened to 20.7 billion pounds in the third quarter, from 6.2 billion pounds in the three months to June, while a separate report showed that the U.K. gross domestic product expanded by 0.8% in the third quarter, in line with market expectation.
In other news, BOJ's Governor Kuroda said on Friday that 'Fed's start of tapering reflects steady recovery in U.S. economy; correction in excessive yen strength has been positive for Japan's economy; no chance to view japan to steadily head towards 2% inflation despite economic fluctuation from sales tax hike; correction in yen strength has boosted corporate profits and improved sentiment; BOJ's existing two loan schemes have played key roles, will mull if to extend deadlines; BOJ monetary policy not aimed at forex markets; Japan consumer inflation to slightly exceed 1% by year end; don't expect April sales tax hike to cause big problem.'
Data to be released next week:
Swiss UBS consumption indicator, Italy consumer confidence, Canada GDP, U.S. Chicago Fed index, personal income, personal consumption, PCE, University of Michigan consumer confidence on Monday. Japan financial markets are closed due to public holiday.
France GDP, U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, U.S. durable goods, Redbook retail sales, house price index, New home sales on Tuesday
No economic data is released on Wednesday. Australia, New Zealand, France, U.K., Swiss, Germany, U.S. and Canada financial market are closed due to Christmas day.
Japan manufacturing PMI, BOJ MPC minutes, housing starts, construction orders, U.S. jobless claims. on Thursday. Australia, New Zealand, Germany, France, U.K. Canada financial markets are closed due to boxing day.
Japan household spending, unemployment rate, CPI, industrial production, retail sales, France PPI on Friday.
AceTraderFx Dec 24: Euro moves moderately higher against the dollar in thin trading
Market Review - 23/12/2013 21:46GMT
Euro moves moderately higher against the dollar in thin trading volume
The single currency edged moderately higher against the dollar on Monday after the release of tepid U.S. data as market participants locked in gains ahead of Christmas holiday after the greenback's rally last week following the Federal Reserve's decision to begin tapering its stimulus program in January.
During the day, euro rebounded after finding support at 1.3668 in New Zealand and price edged higher to 1.3695 in Asia before trading sideways in early European session. Later, euro jumped to 1.3717 in New York morning after release of a slew of U.S. economic data and then hovered around 1.3700 level for rest of the session.
U.S. personal spending rose 0.5% last month, in line with expectations, while personal income rose 0.2% in November, missing consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase. In a separate report, University of Michigan's said its index of overall consumer sentiment held at 82.5 this month, unchanged from an initial estimate.
Versus the yen, dollar met selling interest at 104.10 in Asia and then traded with a soft bias in Europe. The pair extended losses from last Friday's 2-year peak at 104.64 to 103.77 but cross-selling in yen on risk appetite lifted price in New York morning. Later, usd/jpy climbed back above 104.00 level to 104.12 before easing.
Although cable rebounded after meeting renewed buying interest at 1.6324 in Australia and then ratcheted higher to 1.6375 in European morning, active cross-selling of sterling versus euro pressured price lower to 1.6329 in New York morning before recovering to 1.6366.
In other news, Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said on Monday that the U.S. central bank had taken an important psychological step when it announced a reduction in bond buying at its policy meeting last week, but he favored even bolder action.
Data to be release on Tuesday:
France GDP, U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, U.S. durable goods, Redbook retail sales, house price index and New home sales.
AceTraderFx Dec 27 : Dollar firms broadly in thin pre-X'mas holiday trade
Market Review - 25/12/2013 01:32GMT
Dollar firms broadly in thin pre-X'mas holiday trade
U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro in holiday-thinned trade on Tuesday, after stronger-than-expected U.S. durable goods data added to the view that economic recovery is gaining momentum. Later, although new home sales fell by 2.1% to a seasonally adjusted 464,000 units last months, the data was still higher than expectation of an increase of 445,000.
During the day, although euro rose briefly to 1.3714 in Australia morning on Tuesday, cross related selling interest of euro pressured price in Asian and European sessions and the single later dropped to 1.3655 in New York morning after the release of better-than-expected U.S. economic data before stabilizing.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar initially climbed higher to 104.41 in Asia on risk appetite but retreated later in tandem with the pullback in Nikkei 225 index. The pair dropped to 104.14 in early European trading before broad-based rebound in greenback lifted price back up to 104.36 in New York morning. Dollar settled at 104.20 near New York close.
Cable edged lower from Asian high of 1.6357 to 1.6323 in European morning, however, cross buying of sterling especially versus euro emerged ahead of Friday's low of 1.6316 and price later lifted to a fresh intra-day high of 1.6383 in New York before easing.
On the data front, report from INSEE showed French gross domestic product contracted at an 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter clip during the three months ended in September. In a separate report, mortgage approvals in the U.K. rose 45,000 in November from October's revised total of 43,300, more-than-expected and hit the highest level since December 2009.
No major economic data is released on Wednesday. Australia, New Zealand, France, U.K., Swiss, Germany, U.S. and Canada financial market are closed for Christmas Day holiday.
Japan manufacturing PMI, BOJ MPC minutes, housing starts, construction orders, U.S. jobless claims. on Thursday. Australia, New Zealand, Germany, France, U.K. Canada financial markets are closed due to boxing day.
Japan household spending, unemployment rate, CPI, industrial production, retail sales, France PPI on Friday.
AceTraderFx Dec 27: Daily Outlook on Major USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - 104.81
26 Dec 2013 23:25GMT
Dlr's firmness after y'day's rise to a fresh 5-
year peak at 104.85 suggests LT uptrend wud extend
gain to 105.00 after initial consolidation, break
there wud bring subsequent headway twds projected
obj. at 105.15/20 but reckon 105.40/50 wud hold.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated, below wud
abort n risk stronger retracement to 103.77.
STRATEGY : Buy at 104.45
OBJECTIVE: 105.20
STOP-LOSS : 104.10
RES : 105.00/105.43/105.91
SUP : 104.64/104.12/103.77
AceTraderFx Dec 30: Euro hits 2-year high & then retreats sharply in New York session
Market Review - 28/12/2013 02:38GMT
Euro hits 2-year high and then retreats sharply in New York session
Euro rallied to a fresh 2 year high at 1.3994 (EBS) against the dollar in Europe after comment from European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidman, who said 'low inflation pressure does not give a license for arbitrary monetary easing; must be sure to raise rates in time should inflation pressure mount.'
Earlier in the day, the single currency found renewed buying interest at 1.3687 in Australia and ratcheted higher in Asia. The pair then rallied above October's peak at 1.3833 to 1.3894 in thin holiday trading conditions at European midday after hawkish comments from ECB's Jens Weidman, however, profit-taking pressured price in New York morning and price later fell sharply to 1.3732 ahead of New York close.
Versus Japanese yen, although the greenback rose to 105.05 ahead of Tokyo open, renewed selling interest pressured price from there and price retreated to 104.65 in European morning. Dollar later rebounded to 105.01 in New York morning and then rose further to a fresh 5-year peak at 105.19 in New York afternoon.
Cable tracked euro's intra-day move closely on Friday. The pair found support at 1.6406 in Australian session and then rallied to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.6578 in European morning before retreating. The pound later fell sharply to 1.6458 ahead of New York close.
In other news, Bloomberg news reported Japan Vice Economic Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said ‘'wants to quickly cut corporate tax rate below 30%; want bolder corporate tax cuts in special zones; want to show tax cut direction in revised growth plan; may be hard to declare in 2014 Japan deflation end; revised growth strategy planned for June 2014; 'hopes BOJ will deal appropriately with impact of sales tax hike; BOJ's Kuroda, PM Abe to hold regular dialogue to deal with sales tax hike impact; weak yen is positive for Japan's macro economy; wage hikes are biggest issue for Japan's economy in 2014; not so easy to declare that deflation has been beaten.'
On the data front, France PPI in November came in at 0.5% m/m and -0.6% y/y, higher than the forecasts of -0.1% and -1.2%, previous reading was revised to -0.3% and 1.3%.respectively.
Data to be released next week:
U.K. hometrack housing survey, Italy PPI, U.S. pending home sales on Monday.
U.K. Lloyds business barometer, U.S. Redbook retail sales, S&P home price, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence on Tuesday.
China manufacturing PMI on Wednesday. New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Germany, France, U.K., U.S., Canada financial markets closed due to public holiday.
China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, U.K. manufacturing PMI, U.S. jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI, construction spending on Thursday. Financial markets in New Zealand, Japan, China and Switzerland will be closed due to public holiday.
AceTraderFx Dec 30: Daily Outlook on Cross EUR/GBP
DAILY EUR/GBP CROSS OUTLOOK - 0.8340
29 Dec 2013 23:06GMT
Despite Fri's brief bounce to 0.8392, subsequent
weakness to 0.8337 (NY) signals correction fm Thu's
3-week low at 0.8330 has ended n early fall fm 0.84
67 (Dec) wud extend to 0.8313 but 0.8300 wud hold.
Hold short for this move with stop as indicated
n only abv 0.8392 aborts bearishness on euro, risks
stronger retracement to 0.8415 b4 retreat.
STRATEGY : Hold short
POSITION : Short at 0.8350
OBJECTIVE : 0.8315
STOP-LOSS : 0.8380
RES : 0.8369/0.8392/0.8415
SUP : 0.8330/0.8313/0.8300
AceTraderFx Dec 31: Dollar retreats broadly on improved market sentiment
Market Review - 30/12/2013 22:52GMT
Dollar retreats broadly on improved market sentiment
Dollar retreated broadly against other major currencies on Monday, as market appetite improved before the year end. In addition, thin trading volumes due to many investors closing books before year end reduced liquidity in the market and increased volatility, which helped to exaggerate market moves.
The single currency retreated after meeting renewed selling at 1.3770 in Australia and dropped to 1.3729 in Asian trading, however, improved risk appetite lifted price from there and euro ratcheted higher in European trading. Euro later rose to 1.3819 near New York afternoon before easing.
Versus Japanese yen, although the greenback rose to fresh 5-year high at 105.41 in Tokyo morning, profit-taking pressured price from there and the pair later fell to 105.12 in near European midday and then further to 104.97 after release of weaker-than-expected U.S. pending home sales before recovering.
U.S. November pending home sales came in at 0.2% m/m, lower than market expectation of an increase of 1.0%.
Cable traded sideways in Asian trading and then retreated to 1.6460 in European morning. Later, the British pound rose in tandem with euro on the back of dollar's broad-based softness and climbed to a high of 1.6533 in New York trading.
In the other news, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said 'low rate policies can't last forever; sees 1st signals of European money supply declining.'
On the data front, Italy PPI in November came in at -0.1% m/m n -2.3% y/y, previous reading was revised to -1.0% n -2.5% respectively.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
U.K. Lloyds business barometer, U.S. Redbook retail sales, S&P home price, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence on Tuesday.
AceTraderFx Dec 31 : Daily
Outlook on Cross GBP/JPY
DAILY GBP/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK - 173.45
30 Dec 2013 23:18GMT
Y'day's retreat fm 173.86 signals choppy trading
below Fri's 5-yr peak at 173.94 wud continue, below
173.04 wud bring stronger retrace. to 172.65/70.
A firm rise abv 173.67 (NY) signal pullback pos-
sibly over n bring re-test of 173.94, break, 174.30
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 173.67/173.94/174.34
SUP : 173.04/172.51/171.84