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AceTraderFX Dec 5: U.S. dollar falls against Japanese yen on risk aversion
Market Review - 04/12/2013 21:55GMT
U.S. dollar falls against Japanese yen on risk aversion
The greenback fell against the Japanese yen on renewed risk aversion on speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus after the release of higher-than-expected ADP employment and new home sales data.
U.S. ADP employment came in at 215,000 vs forecast of 173K and previous reading of 130,000. U.S. Oct trade deficit $40.64 billion versus forecast of $40.0 billion n Sep deficit $42.97 billion. U.S. October new homes sale at end of October 183K units versus Sep 190K units; ISM manufacturing in November came in at 53.9 versus previous reading of 55.4.
U.S. dollar meet renewed selling interest at 102.84 against the Japanese yen in European morning on Wednesday and price tumbled to an intra-day of 101.82 in New York due to active cross buying in jpy. Euro, aussie and sterling fell sharply versus the Japanese yen from 139.59 to 138.45, from 93.72 to 91.80 and from 168.37 to 166.90 respectively.
The single currency fell from 1.3601 to an intra-day low at 1.3529 after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and then rebounded strongly to 1.3606 in late New York. On the data front, Germany Service PMI in Nov came in at 55.7, higher than the forecast of 54.5. Eurozone service PMI in Nov came in at 51.2, higher than the forecast of 50.9.
Cable fell in European morning on Wednesday, in fact, sterling came under broad-based selling pressure at European open on long liquidation versus euro & yen. Some stops were tripped when the pound penetrated Asian low at 1.6378 n price quickly tanked to intra-day low at 1.6326 (Reuters) after U.K. Nov services PMI fell below market expectation of 62.0, actual reading came in at 60.0 versus Oct's 62.5 (16-year high), the data suggests growth in the important service sector is slowing. However, the British pound rebounded to 1.6405 in tandem with euro in New York.
Thursday will see the release of Australia trade balance, France unemployment rate, U.K. Lloyds employment confidence, BoE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, GDP, personal consumption, PCE, durable goods, factory orders, and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Dec 5: Daily Outlook on Minor NZD/USD
DAILY NZD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.8210
05 Dec 2013 01:03GMT
Despite nzd's rebound fm early fall fm 0.8260
(Tue) to 0.8166 y'day, as this move signals correct
ion fm 0.8085 (Fri) over, downside bias remains.
Sell on further recovery for 0.8160 but 0.8125
shud hold. Only abv 0.8260/66 res risks 0.8295/00.
STRATEGY : Sell at 0.8230
OBJECTIVE : 0.8160
STOP-LOSS : 0.8270
RES : 0.8224/0.8260/0.8284
SUP : 0.8166/0.8125/0.8085
AceTraderFX Dec 6: Euro strengthens to a fresh 1-month peak after Draghi's comments
Market Review - 05/12/2013 22:39GMT
Euro strengthens to a fresh 1-month peak after Draghi's comments
The single currency surged to fresh 1-month peak at 1.3677 against the dollar on Thursday after ECB kept key interest rate unchanged at 0.25% together with 'euro-supportive' comments by ECB President Mario Draghi at the news conference after the ECB's monthly policy meeting.
Mario Draghi said the bank's policy stance was to remain accomodative for as long as necessary and that key interest rates are likely to remain at current or lower levels for an extended period of time.
During the day, although the single currency penetrated last Friday's high of 1.3622 to 1.3640 ahead of European open, active cross-selling in euro pressured price from there and price tanked to an intra-day low of 1.3543 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based rebound after release upbeat U.S. jobless claims and GDP data. Later, euro-supportive comments from ECB President Mario Draghi at post-rate decision news conference dampened traders' hopes for more aggressive easing measures in the euro zone and euro swiftly surged to a fresh 1-month high at 1.3677 before easing.
U.S. preliminary GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.6% in the three months to September, above expectations for growth of 3.0% and up from a preliminary estimate of 2.8%. In a separate report, U.S. Department of Labor showed jobless claims fell by 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 298,000, from 321,000 in the previous week whose figure was revised up from 316,000.
Versus the Japanese yen, despite a rebound from Wednesday's New York low at 101.82, dollar retreated after meeting renewed selling interest at 102.44 at early Asian trading and then dropped to 101.85 in European morning. Dollar briefly rebounded to 102.33 in New York morning after release of a slew of better-then-expected U.S. economic data and then nose-dived to an intra-day low at 101.62 in late New York.
Although cable traded closely with euro in Asia and touched an intra-day high of 1.6403 in European morning, active cross-selling in sterling pressured price after the Bank of England held its monetary policy and cable later tumbled to a fresh 1-week low at 1.6300 in New York morning after strong U.S. economic reports supported demand for the greenback.
The Bank of England kept monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, keeping its commitment to hold interest rates at a record low 0.5% and QE asset purchase total at 375 billion pounds until Britain's recovery is more firmly established.
In other news, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said 'once the Federal Reserve finally trims its bond-buying program, it should then commit to an effective schedule that would wind it down completely; Fed should consider taking the first step in reducing its $85-billion monthly bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, "in the coming meetings" of its Federal Open Market Committee given the overall positive economic activity of late.' Later, he added ''Q3 has a "strong quarter" given fresh reading but that doesn't make a trend; QE GDP does not suggest U.S. has had breakout in growth; estimates pretty low; undecided on question of lowering 6.5% unemployment threshold; adjusting forward rates guidance is on the table at Dec policy meeting; QE taper question should be on the table at December meeting.'
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan leading indicators, France trade balance, Swiss CPI, Germany factory orders, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, personal income, personal spending, PCE, University of Michigan consumer confidence and Canada unemployment rate.
AceTraderFx Dec 6: Daily Outlook on Minor/ Crosses AUD/USD
DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.9058
6 Dec 201300:17GMT
Although y'day's rebound fm 0.9003 to 0.9078
after holding abv Wed's 3-month low at 0.8999 sug-
gests decline fm 0.9758 (Oct) has made a temp. low
n consolidation is envisaged, as long as 0.9098/03
holds, downside bias remains for a strg retreat.
Sell on next upmove but below 0.8999 needed to
extend twd 0.8973. Abv 0.9125 risk 0.9147, 0.9169.
STRATEGY : Sell at 0.9090
OBJECTIVE : 0.9020
STOP-LOSS : 0.9125
RES : 0.9078/0.9114/0.9147
SUP : 0.9045/0.8999/0.8959
AceTraderFx Dec 6: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1058.1
06 Dec 201305:44GMT
Usd's breach of 1059.0 suggests the recovery fm
1056.5 has ended at 1063.3 (Tue), below said sup
wud yield re-test of Oct's low at 1054.6.
Stand aside n look to sell on recovery, only abv
1063.3 wud yield re-test of 1065.0.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 1063.3/1065.0/1071.7
SUP : 1056.5/1054.6/1050.0
AceTraderFx Dec 9 : USD rallies against Japanese yen on strong U.S. jobs report
Market Review - 06/12/2013 22:24GMT
U.S. dollar rallies against Japanese yen on strong U.S. jobs report
U.S. dollar rallied to 102.97 against the Japanese yen on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, adding speculation that the Federal Reserve may start tapering its bond buying program sooner than expected.
U.S. employers added 203,000 new jobs in November and U.S. jobless rate fell to a five-year low of 7.0%. U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 82.5 in December versus final reading of 75.1 in November.
The single currency briefly dropped to a session low of 1.3620 after the release of U.S. jobs data before rallying to a fresh five-week high of 1.3706 in late New York. ECB chief Mario Draghi, after a policy meeting on Thursday, said the bank was ready to take fresh action to support a fragile recovery. Draghi also noted that liquidity in the banking system had improved since the last long-term cash injection and attached conditions for any repeat.
The British pound fell initially to a session low of 1.6294 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based weakness after the release of robust U.S. jobs report, however, cable staged a strong rebound to 1.6393 in tandem with euro before retreating again in late New York due to cross selling in sterling. Euro rose against the sterling from 0.8348 to 0.8390.
In other news, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said 'the U.S. Federal Reserve should put a dollar cap and end date on its bond-buying program.' Plosser added "the sooner we end (the program) the better." Plosser suggested the central bank should convert its existing "thresholds" for raising interest rates to more predictable "triggers." The Fed has tied its first rate rise to future thresholds of 2.5 percent inflation and 6.5 percent unemployment.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said at symposium that 'the Federal Reserve should not worry too much if inflation temporarily rises above the Fed's 2 percent goal.' Evans added 'inflation is now running much lower than the Fed's goal, and Fed policies designed to push it back up may possibly overshoot; but the Fed's goals on inflation and on achieving maximum employment should be "symmetric," and the Fed should give them equal weight.' Evans also said he is not willing to used monetary policy to lean against the rise in stock prices that some see as a potential bubble.
Data to be released next week:
Japan current account, GDP, economic watch DI, China CPI, PPI, Swiss unemployment rate, retail sales, Germany trade balance, import, export, current account, industrial production, EU Sentix investor confidence, Canada housing starts on Monday
Australia home loans, business confidence, business condition, Japan Tertiary industry index, consumer confidence, , machine tools orders, China industrial production, fixed assets investing urban, retail sales, U.K. RICS house price, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy industrial production, manufacturing production, GDP, U.S. retail sales, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales on Tuesday.
Australia consumer confidence, machinery orders, domestic CGPI, Germany CPI, HICP, France current account, U.S. Fed budget on Wednesday.
New Zealand rate decision, employment change, unemployment rate, France HICP, CPI, Swiss rate decision, EU industrial production, SNB rate decision, Italy CPI, HICP, Canada new housing price, U.S. import price index, export price index, jobless claims, retail sales, business inventories on Thursday.
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, Japan industrial production, capital utilization, U.S. PPI on Friday.
AceTraderFx Dec 9: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1053.4
09 Dec 2013 00:02GMT
Intra-day gap-down open n subsequent breach of
Oct's low at 1054.6 signals MT downtrend has once
again resumed n weakness to 1048.6 is seen.
Sell at market with stop as indicated n only abv
1056.1 aborts n risks retracement to 1059.8.
STRATEGY : Sell at market
OBJECTIVE : 1049.0
STOP-LOSS : 1055.5
RES : 1056.1/1059.8/1061.1
SUP : 1050.0/1048.6/1045.0
AceTraderFx Dec 9: Weekly Technical analysis on Major
WEEKLY USD/JPY OUTLOOK
09 Dec 2013 00:16GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
102.69
55 HR EMA
102.44
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
O/bot
13 HR RSI
76
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
104.51 50% proj. of 97.60-103.38 fm 101.62
103.74 - 2013 peak (May 2)
103.38 - Last Tue's 6-month high
Support
102.44 - Last Thur's high
102.21 - Last Fri's European morning high
101.62 - Last Thur's low
. USD/JPY - 103.08... Although the greenback ratcheted lower initially last week after climbing to a 6-month high of 103.38 (Tue), decline in the Nikkei fm 6-year highs prompted broad-based buying of yen n pressured price to 101.62 b4 rallying strongly back to 102.97 on Fri, n then 103.22 in Australia today.
. Looking at the daily picture, as indicated in previous update, dlr's close
abv 102.84 res Fri signals correction fm 103.74 is over n the pair is posied to
re-test 2013 4-1/2 year peak at 103.74 (May), break there wud confirm LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 (Oct) has finally resumed, then the pair is en route twd 107.96 in Q1 2014, being 50% proj. of 75.32-103.74 measured fm 93.75. This week, abv 103.74 wud extend initial gain to 104.51 (50% proj. of MT intermediate rise fm 97.60-103.38 fm 101.62 but 105.19 (61.8% proj.) wud cap upside. Only below 102.21 wud dampen bullishness n risk retracement twd 101.15.
. Today, as current price is abv the 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting dlr
wud head to 103.38 1st, break wud encourage for subsequent re-test of said 2013
peak n only below 102.41/44 aborts intra-day bullishness on dlr.
AceTraderFx Dec 10: Euro rises to fresh 5-week high of 1.3748
Market Review - 09/12/2013 21:15GMT
Euro rises to fresh 5-week high of 1.3748
The single currency rose to a fresh 5-week high of 1.3748 and a fresh 5-year high of 141.94 against the dollar and the Japanese yen respectively on Monday. U.S. dollar was broadly lower as the latest U.S. jobs report, released on Friday, dampened safe haven demand for the dollar and the yen.
During the day, euro followed Friday's rally on Monday and opened higher to a fresh 6-week high of 1.3748 against the dollar and extended recent upmove against the yen to 141.54 in New Zealand and then 141.94 in late New York. Euro retreated briefly to to 1.3695 and 140.99 respectively ahead of European open on profit-taking. Later, euro rebounded to 1.3746 in late New York due to active cross selling in jpy.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar rose to 103.22 ahead of Asian open Monday and then retreated to 102.89. Later, U.S. dollar rose again to 103.35 in late New York on renewed cross selling in Japanese yen.
Although cable opened lower at 1.6316 in Monday's New Zealand trading, renewed risk appetite after last Friday's upbeat U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November continued to support the pair and sterling later ratcheted higher to 1.6393 in early European trading and then 1.6433 in later New York before easing.
On the data front, reports from German showed on Monday that industrial production in October dropped by 1.2% month/month versus median forecast of an increase of 0.8%.
In other news, ECB's Mersch said at a financial conference in Frankfurt on Monday that 'euro zone inflation to remain very subdued; sees no deflationary risks; have necessary tools for further monetary policy measures; could buy government bonds, but this would have immense political, juridical and economic challenges; buying private instruments could be problematic as would shift risk to tax payers; risk that negative deposits rates would increase borrowing costs; monetary policy can only buy time for reforms, if this time is not used, monetary policy cannot help.'
Data to be release on Tuesday :
Australia home loans, business confidence, business condition, Japan Tertiary industry index, consumer confidence, , machine tools orders, China industrial production, fixed assets investing urban, retail sales, U.K. RICS house price, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy industrial production, manufacturing production, GDP, U.S. retail sales, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Outlook on Crosses - GBP/JPY
DAILY GBP/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK - 169.65
09 Dec 2013 23:37GMT
Stg's rally abv last Tue's 5-year top at 169.14
confirms MT uptrend has once again resumed n gain
twds 170.00 is envisaged, abv, 170.40/50 later.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated, break risks
stronger pullback to 168.13 but 167.87 wud hold.
STRATEGY : Buy at 169.15
OBJECTIVE : 169.95
STOP-LOSS : 168.55
RES : 169.70/170.00/170.50
SUP : 168.60/168.13/167.87