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AceTraderfx Sept 5 : Euro rises on short-covering ahead of ECB rate decision
Market Review - 04/09/2013 22:24GMT
Euro rises on short-covering ahead of ECB rate decision
The single currency strengthened against dollar on Wednesday as investors unwound their recent short positions ahead of the European Central Bank rate decision and the much-monitored press conference by ECB President Draghi for clues on any future policy move by the central bank.
Earlier in Asia, the single currency moved narrowly following a recovery from Tuesday's 6-week low at 1.3138, price dipped briefly to 1.3157 in European morning, however, renewed buying there lifted the pair to 1.3187 and cross buying of euro versus yen and Swiss franc pushed euro higher to 1.3218 in New York morning, price later traded narrowly before easing near the close.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback rose from Asian low at 99.42 to 99.80 in European morning due partly to the rise in Japanese equities, failure to penetrate Tuesday's top at 99.86 prompted profit-taking and price dropped to a low at 99.32 in New York morning before staging a rebound on renewed cross selling of yen versus euro. The Bank of Japan will end its 2-day policy meeting around midday on Thursday.
The British pound traded narrowly in Asia and then rose strongly above Tuesday's top at 1.5605 to a high at 1.5632 in European morning after release of better-than-expected U.K. PMI service (60.5 versus the forecast of 59.0) before retreating to 1.5595 in New York morning, however, renewed buying interest due to intra-day rebound in eur/usd pushed the pound higher to 1.5648 before easing. The Bank of England also ends its 2-day policy meeting later today.
The Australian dollar rallied throughout Tuesday's Asian, European and New York sessions due to the upbeat Australian GDP and Chinese HSBC service PMI, which came in at 2.6% vs previous reading of 2.5% and 52.8 versus the previous 51.3 respectively. The pair eventually surged to a 2-week high of 0.9188 in New York morning before retreating on profit-taking.
On the data front, German Service PMI (final) in August came in at 52.8, stronger than the forecast of 52.4. Euro zone Service PMI (Final) in Aug came in at 50.7, worse than the forecast of 51.0. Euro zone GDP in Q2 came in at 0.3% Q/Q and -0.5% Y/Y, versus the expectation of 0.3% and -0.5% respectively. Euro zone Retail sales in July were at 0.1% and -1.3%, worse than the market expectations of 0.4% and -0.4%.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia trade balance, Japan rate decision, U.K. employment confidence, BOE rate decision, asset purchases, Germany factory orders, France unemployment rate, ECB rate decision, U.S. ADP employment, jobless claims, factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing, durable goods.
Acetraderfx Sept 6 : Euro tanks to a fresh 7-week low on ECB Draghi's dovish comments
Market Review- 05/09/2013 22:23GMT
Euro tanks to a fresh 7-week low on ECB Draghi's dovish comments
The single currency dropped sharply to a fresh 7-week low on Thursday as the European Central Bank President Draghi said the bank will keep its present rates or lower the levels for extended period.
Earlier in Asia, despite euro's intra-day fall from Wednesday's top at 1.3218 to 1.3164, cross buying of euro versus yen lifted the pair above 1.3218 to 1.3223 in New York morning, however, the single currency then fell sharply when ECB President Draghi said 'rates at present or lower levels for extended period.' Price eventually hit a 7-week low at 1.3110 in New York morning before stabilising.
ECB's Draghi said in the press conference after the central bank kept interest rate at 0.5% that 'underlying price pressures in Eurozone expected to remain subdued; recent confidence indicators confirm expectation of gradual improvement in economy; ECB monetary policy stance is geared toward maintaining degree of monetary accommodation; monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary; governing council expects ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for extended period; inflation outlook unchanged in medium term; repayments of long-term loans reflect improvement in financial market conditions; expect gradual recovery in euro zone.'
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback rose briefly to 99.98 at Asian midday, cross buying of yen versus euro pressured the pair to 99.57 before rising to 100.12 in European morning. Later, despite dollar's retreat to 99.66 in New York morning, release of better-than-expected U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI and factory orders (58.6 and -2.4%, versus the forecast of 55.2 and -3.3%) pushed the pair higher to a fresh 6-week top at 100.20 in New York afternoon.
Although the British pound retreated from Wednesday's top at 1.5648 to 1.5591 in European morning, the pair pierced through 1.5648 to a 2-week top at 1.5667 after the Bank of England announced to keep interest rate and asset purchases unchanged at 0.5% and 375 billion sterling as expected. However, cable fell sharply in tandem with euro in New York morning due to the steep fall in eur/usd and eventually hit session low at 1.5573 before recovering in U.S. afternoon.
In other news, BOJ kept monetary policy steady by unanimous vote, pledged to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen and revised up economic assessment in September. Fed's Kocherlakota said 'low rates at which U.S. can borrow shows confidence in ability of government to resolve fiscal issues; expect unemployment to remain well above 5.2%-6% for a number of years; expect inflation, as measured by %, to stay well below 2% for some time; Fed should communicate more effectively; markets reacted to tapering talks in a way I did not expect; a reduction in Fed's bond buying may not mean as much as people might think.''
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan leading indicator, Germany trade balance, current account, import export, industrial production, France trade balance, consumer confidence, Swiss CPI, industrial production, U.K. industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earning, Canada unemployment rate, PMI.
AceTraderfx Sept 6: Daily Market Outlook on Majors EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - 1.3131
06 Sep 2013 02:13GMT
Despite y'day's selloff to a fresh 6-week low at
1.3110 (NY), intra-day rebound suggests initial con
solidation wud be seen b4 decline fm Aug's peak at
1.3453 resumes twd 1.306, 'loss of momentum' shud
keep price abv 1.3015 n yield correction later.
Exit prev. short n sell again on further recovery
as only abv 1.3173 may risk retrace. twd 1.3223/27.
STRATEGY : Exit short n sell at 1.3150
POSITION :Short at 1.3180
OBJECTIVE : 1.3070
STOP-LOSS : 1.3190
RES : 1.3173/1.3223/1.3255
SUP : 1.3110/1.3066/1.3015
AceTraderfx Sept 9 : Dollar weakens broadly after weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm
Market Review - 06/09/2013 18:16GMT
Dollar weakens broadly after weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls
The U.S. dollar tumbled against other major currencies on Friday after U.S. job growth came in less than market forecast, adding to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's next policy move at its next policy meeting on September 17-18, weighing on demand for the greenback.
The U.S. economy added 169,000 jobs in August, less than the median forecast of 180,000 increase, whilst previous month's figure was downwardly revised to 104,000 from 162,000. U.S. unemployment rate dropped slightly to 7.3% in August, from 7.4% in July, as more people left the work force.
Versus the Japanese yen, despite an initial rise to a fresh 6-week high of 100.24 in Friday's Australian morning following gain in previous session, profit-taking pressured price from there and dollar tanked to 99.70 in Asia n then to 99.50 in European morning. Later, the release of disappointing U.S. jobs data knocked the pair sharply lower in New York morning to as low as 98.52 before recovering.
The single currency remained under pressure in Asia and then dropped marginally below Thursday's low at 1.3110 to a fresh 6-week low at 1.3105 in European trading after data showed German industrial production fell more than expected in July and adding to signs that growth in Europe's biggest economy is moderating. However, dollar's board-based weakness after U.S. jobs data pushed price sharply higher in New York morning n euro jumped to 1.3180 and then 1.3189 before easing.
Industrial output in Germany contracted by 1.7 percent in July after expanding by 2.0 percent in June. German Economy Ministry says 'July's fall is due mainly to strong previous month; moderate upwards trend in manufacturing, significant stronger trend in construction to continue.'
The British pound retreated versus the dollar after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.5614 in Friday's Asian session and then dropped in tandem with euro to 1.5564 in European morning. However, dollar's broad-based weakness in New York morning together with cross-buying of sterling vs euro sent cable sharply higher to a fresh 2-week high of 1.5681 before retreating on weekend profit-taking.
In other news, G20 said on Friday 'challenges to global economy are unemployment, weak growth, financial market fragmentation in Europe; slower growth in emerging market economies caused in some cases by volatile capital flows; urgent need is to increase the momentum of the global recovery; work on putting world economy on path to recovery is not yet complete; remains mindful of risks, unintended negative side effects of extended periods of monetary easing; central banks commit that future changes to monetary policy are 'carefully calibrated and clearly communicated'; advanced economies commit to credible and ambitious medium-term fiscal strategies; work on global economic recovery not complete'
Data to be released next week :
Monday :Australia home loans, Japan GDP, business capital expenditure, current account, consumer confidence, economic watch DI, China PPI, CPI, Swiss retail sales, unemployment rate, EU sentix investor confidence, Canada building permit.
Tuesday :Australia business condition, Japan all industry index, China industrial production, fixed assets investment urban, retail sales, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy GDP, U.K. RICS house price, Canada housing starts, U.S. retail sales.
Wednesday :Australia consumer confidence, Japan Domestic CGPI, Germany CPI, HICP, U.K. claimant count, unemployment rate, average earning, U.S. wholesales inventories, wholesale sales.
Thursday :New Zealand rate decision, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan machinery orders, France HICP, CPI, Italy industrial production, CPI, HICP, EU industrial production Canada new housing price index, U.S. jobless claims, import price index, export price index, Fed budget.
Friday :New Zealand PMI, consumer confidence, Japan industrial production, capacity utilization, EU trade balance, U.S. PPI, retail sales, business inventories, University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderfx Sept 9, 2013 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11170
09 Sep 2013 04:11GMT
Usd's rally to 11200 (Fri) suggests the LT upmove
fm 8455 remains in force n upside bias is seen for
further gain to 11300 but reckon 11400 wud hold.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, only
below 11030 wud risk retrace. to 11000, 10900.
STRATEGY : Long at 11150
POSITION : Long at 11150
OBJECTIVE : 11250
STOP-LOSS :11080
RES : 11300/11400/11500
SUP : 11030/11000/10900
AceTraderfx Sept 9 : WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
09 Sep 2013 02:00GMT
Trend Daily Chart: Sideways
Daily Indicators: Neutral
21 HR EMA: 1.5620
55 HR EMA: 1.5608
Trend Hourly Chart: Up
Hourly Indicators: Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI: 58
14 HR DMI: +ve
Daily Analysis: Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
1.5753 - JUn 17 high
1.5718 - Augs' high (21)
1.5681 - Last Fri's high
Support
1.5564 - Last Fri's low
1.5522 - Last Tue's low
1.5462 - Aug 30 low
. GBP/USD - 1.5633... Trading cable proved to be tricky due to its daily large swings last week. Price ratcheted higher fm 1.5507 (Mon) to 1.5681 Fri on dlr's broad-based weakness after U.S. payrolls were less than market forecast.
. Looking at the daily chart, sterling's erratic rise fm 1.5427 signals early retreat fm Aug's peak at 1.5718, although strg, has ended there n abv said res wud extend upmove fm 2013 3-year trough at 1.4814 (Jul) to test chart obj. at 1.5753, abv wud encourage for gain to 1.5781, this is the 'natural' 50% r of the MT fall fm 1.6747 (2011 top), abv needed to extend aforesaid move to 1.5879, being 50% proj. of 1.4814 to 1.5718 measured fm 1.5427. Having said that, as the daily indicators wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, reckon 1.5986 (61.8% proj. ) wud remain intact. On the downside, only below 1.5522 wud abort abv mildly bullish scenario n may yield re-test of 1.5427 later.
. Today, although sterling's retreat fm said Fri's 1.5681 high in NY sug- gests initial consolidation is in store in Asia, below 1.5564 needed to confirm temp. top is made n yield retrace. twd 1.5522 whilst abv 1.5681 risks 1.5718.
AceTraderfx Sept 10, 2013 : Euro rallies after eurozone sentiment turns positive
Market Review - 09/09/2013 22:25GMT
Euro rallies after eurozone sentiment turns positive
The single currency strengthened on Monday after survey showed investor sentiment in the eurozone soared in September to the highest level since May 2011, amid easing concerns over the outlook for the region's economy.
Sentix said its index of investor confidence improved to 6.5 in September from a reading of minus 4.9 in August, much better than the expectation of a minus 3.5.
During the day, euro traded narrowly below Friday's high of 1.3189 in Asia after finding support at 1.3160 in New Zealand. Later, the release of surprised improvement in professional investor sentiment in eurozone pushed the single currency higher above said resistance level to 1.3221 in New York morning and then 1.3281 before easing.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar briefly rose to 100.11 in Australian trading due to the rally in Nikkei-225 index on improved sentiment after Tokyo won 2020 Olympics bid, profit-taking pressured price there and the pair fell in Asian trading to 99.34 in European morning. Later, broad-based selling of yen lifted price and dollar rebounded to 99.65 in New York morning and then moved sideways for rest of the session.
Cable surged in tandem with euro in European trading and rose above Friday's high of 1.5681 to 1.5683. The British pound later penetrated August's peak at 1.5718 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based weakness to a fresh 2-1/2 month high at 1.5733 before easing.
In the other news, U.K.'s FinMin Osborne said 'truly sustainable growth depends on sound public finances and well capitalised banks; government has more to come this autumn to reduce cost of energy and water bills, housing, transport and everyday financial services; will do more to ease household costs; just as inadvertent early tightening of monetary policy would be mistake, so would leaving it too late; 90-95% loan to value mortgages are part of aspirational society, not exotic weapons of financial mass destruction; evidence suggests government help to buy scheme will increase housing supply; most powerful tools to protect living standards are low mortgages rates and low taxes; re-launch of TSB bank earlier on Monday is another sign of progress for banking system; market moves since August vindicate need for forward guidance.'
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia business condition, Japan Tertiary industry index and BoJ 7-8 meeting minutes, China industrial production, fixed assets investment urban, retail sales, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy GDP, U.K. RICS house price, Canada housing starts, U.S. Redbook retail sales on Tuesday.
AceTraderfx Sept 11 : Dollar strengthens against yen as tension on Syria eases
Market Review - 10/09/2013 22:13GMT
Dollar strengthens against yen as tension on Syria eases
The U.S. dollar rallied against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as prospects of a U.S. military strike against Syria eased after Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said that his government had agreed to a Russian proposal to place its chemical weapons under international control.
Versus the yen, earlier in Asia, despite initial retreat from Australian high of 99.76 to 99.47 in Asian morning, price started to rise as industrial production and retail sales from China added to signs that the world's second largest economy is recovering from a slowdown. Later, the greenback penetrated Monday's high of 100.11 in European morning and then climbed to a fresh 1-1/2 month peak at 100.47 in New York as the easing Syrian tension boosted investors' demand for riskier assets.
Data released from China on Tuesday showed that retail sales rose unexpectedly in August, while Chinese industrial production increased more than forecast last month.
The single currency retreated against the dollar after edging higher from Asian low of 1.3250 to 1.3276 at European open, however, failure to penetrate Monday's New York high of 1.3281 prompted profit-taking and the pair fell to 1.3230 before staging another bounce to 1.3275 in New afternoon in part due to cross-buying of euro versus yen. (Eur/jpy rallied to a fresh 3-1/2 month peak at 133.31)
Despite cable's sideways trading below Monday's high of 1.5733 in Asian trading, the British pound found support at 1.5686 and later rose above this resistance to a fresh 11-week high of 1.5745 in New York afternoon on cross-buying of sterling before easing.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan Domestic CGPI, Germany CPI, HICP, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, average earning, U.S. wholesales inventories, wholesale sales.
AceTraderfx Sept 11, 2013 : Daily Market Outlook on Minors/Crosses EUR/JPY
DAILY EUR/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK - 133.25
11 Sep 2013 04:23GMT
Y'day's anticipated rally abv res at 132.74 (Jul) strongly suggests MT uptrend has resumed n a re-test of May's 3-1/2 year peak at 133.82 is envisaged, break wud encourage for further gain to 134.15/25 later this week b4 correction occurs.
Hold long for this move. Only below 132.43 (previous res) wud indicate temp. top is made, 132.14.
STRATEGY : Hold long
POSITION :Long at 132.80
OBJECTIVE : 133.80
STOP-LOSS :132.80
RES : 133.31/133.82/134.16
SUP :133.88/132.43/132.14
AceTraderfx Sept 11: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2698
11 Sep 2013 06:59GMT
Usd's intra-day rebound fm a 4-wk low at 1.2662/63 suggests a temp. low is made n consolidation is expected to take place in next 1-2 days.
Abv 1.2729/30 wud bring stronger retrace. of early fall fm 1.2862 to 1.2758, below 1.2662, 1.2633.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 1.2716/1.2758/1.2778
SUP : 1.2662/1.2633/1.2562