Intraday trading signal - page 25

 

EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD

EUR/USD:1.2905

Late Update At 16 Jul 2010 06:03 GMT

Euro has traded narrowly with a soft bias in

Asian morning after y'day's resumption of recent

upmove n rallied to a 2-month high of 1.2955 in NY,

reckon 1.2890 wud contain present retreat n bring

rebound but abv 1.2955 needed to extend to 1.2975.

Buy on dips for 1.2950 n if price extends upmove

to 1.2975 1st, sell there for pullback to 1.2925.

Range Forecast

1.2890 / 1.2925

Resistance/Support

R: 1.2955/1.2965/1.3000

S: 1.2869/1.2810/1.2778

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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader

Market Review - 16/07/2010 21:39 GMT

Dollar falls to 7-month low against yen on worse-than-expected consumer sentiment

The greenback remained under pressure against the Japanese yen in Asia following previous day's decline and fell to 86.97 due to the weakness in Asian stocks (Nikkei-225 fell by 2.86%). Although the pair briefly recovered to 87.37 in European morning, the greenback later tumbled to a 7-month low of 86.27 after the release of University of Michigan consumer sentiment which dropped to the lowest level since August 2009 at 66.5, this was worse than market forecast of 74.0. The figure suggested the U.S. economic recovery is stalling and the pair closed down on weekly basis at 86.55, suggesting further losses would be seen next week.

Versus other major and commodity currencies, dollar staged a strong rebound in U.S. session as the broad-based selloff in U.S. equities rekindled risk aversion activities, investors dumped risky assets and moved to U.S. dollar as safe-haven currency. Dow Jones Industrial index tumbled by 261 points, or 2.52% to 10,098 while S&P and Nasdaq tanked by 2.88% and 3.11% respectively as earning from U.S. giant corporations GE, Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup disappointed investors. The European stocks also weakened sharply as FTSE-100, CAC-40 and DAX fell by 1.01%, 2.28% and 1.77% respectively.

Although the single currency traded with a soft undertone in Asia on cross selling in euro versus yen after previous session's rally to 1.2955, price briefly hit an intra-day low of 1.2890 in European morning, buying interest there lifted the pair after IMF's chief Strauss-Kahn said that stress test will show all major European banks are sufficiently solid and his comment eased concerns about fiscal problems in the eurozone. The single currency then rose to a fresh 2-month high of 1.3008 at New York opening. However, euro retreated sharply to 1.2915 on profit-taking due to the weakness in U.S. equities and later closed the day at 1.2928.

In other euro-related news, European Union government has agreed details of the planned stress test on banks, with core tier 1 capital a criterion for success or failure and exposure to sovereign risk will be the second indicators in the order of importance. Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker said in the interview that he does not expect any big catastrophes from stress tests and realized euro is not in danger. He added no country wants to leave euro zone. Earlier in Tokyo, French PM Francois Fillon said that Europe's debt crisis is more to do with badly managed public finances than fundamental weakness in the single currency system. He added that Greece has endangered the credibility of its budgets but public finances in the EU are no worse than the situation in the U.S. and Japan.

In addition, Chinese Premier Wen who was speaking at a conference with visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Beijing said 'euro has been n will be in the future an important investment choice for China.'

The British pound traded sideways in Asian session after surging to a high of 1.5473 in the previous session, selling pressure at 1.5448 knocked sterling lower n the pound later tumbled to as low as low as 1.5279 in New York mid-day on active cross selling in sterling, eur/gbp rose from 0.8365 to 0.8462 and gbp/jpy fell from 135.07 to 132.04.

On the economic front, the eurozone turned to a trade deficit in May as EU trade balanced came out at -3.47B euros, worse than the estimate of -0.5B euros. U.S. consumer price index in June dropped for a third straight month as U.S. CPI in June fell by 0.1%, versus the expectations of 0.0% and -0.2% in May. CPI core in June rose by 0.2%, the second monthly gain and better than the forecast of 0.1%. U.S. Net long-term capital inflows fell to $35.4 billion in May, worse than the estimations of $40.0B

Economic data to be released next week include: U.K. Rightmove hse prices , EU Current account, U.S. NAHB housing mrkt index (Japanese market is closed for holiday) on Monday, Germany PPI, Swiss Trade Balance, U.K. PSNCR, PS net borrowing, U.S. building permits. Housing starts, Canada BOC rate decision on Tuesday, Australia Westpac leading economic index, U.K. BOE meeting minutes, Canada Wholesale sales on Wednesday, Japan All industry index, EU PMI, Industrial orders, U.K. Retail sales, Canada Retail sales, U.S. Jobless claims, Leading indicators, Existing home sales, House price index on Thursday, Australia Export prices, Import prices, Germany Ifo index, Canada CPI on Friday.

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Support, Resistance and Range Forecast by AceTrader

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:

Last Update At 19 Jul 2010 04:26 GMT

Range Forecast

86.45 / 86.80

Resistance/Support

R: 86.96 / 87.37 / 87.58

S: 86.27 / 86.17 / 85.96

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INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:

Last Update At 19 Jul 2010 04:29 GMT

Range Forecast

1.2895 / 1.2925

Resistance/Support

R: 1.2931/1.2955/1.2983

S: 1.2883/1.2858/1.2814

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INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:

Last Update At 19 Jul 2010 04:29 GMT

Range Forecast

1.0465 / 1.0495

Resistance/Support

R: 1.0500/1.0548/1.0572

S: 1.0471/1.0452/1.0400

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INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:

Last Update At 19 Jul 2010 04:30 GMT

Range Forecast

1.5285 / 1.5320

Resistance/Support

R: 1.5337/1.5358/1.5399

S: 1.5270/1.5236/1.5189

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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader-20-7-2010

Market Review - 19/07/2010 22:00 GMT

Euro rebounds on fall in U.S. homebuilder sentiment

Although the single currency fell below Friday's low of 1.2890 in early Australian trading on Monday as traders sold euro in reaction to Sunday's news that IMF and EU had withdrawn 20 billion euro financing deal to Hungary and said the Hungarian government needed to do more to shrink its budget deficit before further bailout money will be loaned to the debt-ridden country which has Europe's highest public debt at 80% of GDP and euro later hit an intra-day low of 1.2871 in European morning after Moody's Investor Service downgraded Ireland's sovereign bond rating from Aa1 to Aa2, the single currency then rebounded strongly to 1.2992 on cross buying in euro (eur/jpy rose from 111.43 to 113.07 while eur/chf gained from 1.3508 to 1.3672). Later, despite retreating briefly to 1.2932 in NY morning, euro managed to bounce to 1.2984 after U.S. home-builder sentiment fell, U.S. NAHB housing market index in July dropped to its 15-month low at 14 (versus the estimate of 16), which sparked off fears that the U.S. economic recovery is slowing.

In earlier news, Moody's said the downgrade of Ireland's bond ratings is due to the gradual but significant loss of financial strength in the Irish government.Irish bonds have under-performed rest of peripheral EU sovereign debt after Moody's downgrade as Irish/Spanish 10-year bond spreads widened from 14 bps to 127 bps, its widest since May 10 while equivalent Irish/Italian spread expanded to 153 bps versus 143 bps at Friday's close.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded steadily in Asian morning after plunging to an 8-month low of 86.27 in NY on Friday. Although it showed muted reaction to intra-day weakness in Asian equities (stocks in Asia-pacific were down except Shanghai Composite) following Friday's 2.5% selloff in the Dow on fears over possible BoJ's intervention and recovered to an intra-day high of 87.23 in Europe, the pair then retreated from there after release of worse-than-expected U.S. NAHB housing market index and fell to 86.64 in NY morning before moving sideways.

Although the British pound traded narrowly in Asia and fell to 1.5260 in European morning after Moody's downgraded Ireland's debt rating, the pound staged a recovery in tandem with euro and hit an intra-day high of 1.5351 in European morning. However, selling interest emerged there knocked cable down n sterling fell sharply to an intra-day low of 1.5203 in NY morning on cross selling versus euro as the eur/gbp cross-pair rallied to a seven-week high of 0.8532.

Economic data to be released on Tuesday include: Australia RBA minutes, Japan Leading indicators, Germany PPI, Swiss Trade Balance, U.K. PSNCR, PS net borrowing, CBI Trend Total Orders, U.S. Building permit, Housing starts, Canada BOC rate decision.

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GBP/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.5273

Last Update At 20 Jul 2010 06:03 GMT

Cable's intra-day euro-led rise abv 1.5260/70

res confirms last week's decline fm 1.5473 has made

a low at 1.5203 n choppy consolidation with upside

bias remains for gain to 1.5295/00, abv needed to

retain nr term bullishness n extend to 1.5333/38.

Turn cautious buyer on dips n only below 1.5225/

30 signals recovery over, 1.5203, 1.5175/80.

Range Forecast

1.5255 / 1.5290

Resistance/Support

R: 1.5300/1.5351/1.5399

S: 1.5229/1.5203/1.5189

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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader-22-7-2010

Market Review - 21/07/2010 22:15 GMT

Euro tumbles as Fed's Bernanke shows concerns about economic outlook

Euro fell sharply on Wednesday as Fed's Chairman Ben Bernanke showed concerns about the U.S. economy, prompting investors to flock to dollar and the Japanese yen as the safe-haven assets.

Euro traded narrowly in Asian session, the single currency rose to an intra-day high of 1.2914 at European morning but the pair retreated from there and fell to 1.2791 on lacklustre results from auctions of Portuguese debt sale, which triggered fears that Europe's banks need to raise more capital. Later, the single currency tanked to an intra-day low of 1.2732 after Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's dovish comments before recovering .

U.S. Fed's Bernanke said in a testimony that economic outlook is 'unusually uncertain' and the Fed remains prepared to take further action as needed. He reiterated that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low rates for an extended period. He also said U.S. financial conditions have become less supportive of growth in recent months and the Fed will act if soft recovery falters.

Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback dropped lower at Asian morning after the release of BoJ's minutes and hit an intra-day low of 86.86 as the speculation of weak Europe's stress-test results boosted demand for the Japanese yen, buying interest there lifted dollar up and the pair bounced to 87.35 on upbeat earning results from Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo at NY morning. Later, the greenback fell again from there and hit a low of 86.91 on Bernanke's dovish comments before stabilising

In other news, BoJ Deputy Governor Yamaguchi said he is watching forex moves carefully and yen rise impact on corporate mood depends on length and pace of yen rise. He also said that he has no comment on market speculation of forex intervention and forex policy is under jurisdiction of government, and business sentiment has improved significantly compared with during 'Dubai Shock'.

Although the British pound edged higher to 1.5319 at European morning, cable then nose-dived to 1.5185 (or 1.5168 from Reuters) just ahead of London opening on U.K. Telegraph's article that British banks may face 390 billion pounds 'funding gap' or talk of attribution of an erroneous electronic trade. However, renewed buying interest there lifted the pound up and it climbed to an intra-day high of 1.5335 ahead of the release of BoE's minutes. Later, the British pound fell lower in Europe as the BoE's minutes showed that the policy makers considered to expand stimulus policies to secure the U.K. economic recovery, and price tumbled to a low of 1.5125 after Ben Bernanke's dovish comments at NY afternoon before stabilising.

The BoE's minutes in June indicated that MPC voted 7-1 to keep rates unchanged and BoE would maintain its bond purchase program.

Telegraph reported U.K. Banks face a funding crunch next year as they attempt to refinance debt amounting to double the amount they had raised on average during the years of the credit boom.

Economic data to be released on Thursday include: Australia NAB business confidence, Japan All industry index, Germany PMI manufacturing and PMI service, EU PMI manufacturing, PMI service, Industrial orders and Consumer Confidence, U.K. Retail sales, Canada Retail sales, U.S. Jobless claims, Leading indicators, Existing home sales and House price index.

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Support, Resistance and Range Forecast - AceTrader

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:

Last Update At 22 Jul 2010 06:15 GMT

Range Forecast

86.27 / 86.50

Resistance/Support

R: 86.86 / 87.09 / 87.35

S: 86.27 / 86.00 / 85.86

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INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:

Last Update At 22 Jul 2010 06:20 GMT

Range Forecast

1.2735 / 1.2765

Resistance/Support

R: 1.2791/1.2839/1.2871

S: 1.2732/1.2708/1.2682

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INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:

Last Update At 22 Jul 2010 06:23 GMT

Range Forecast

1.0490 / 1.0520

Resistance/Support

R: 1.0543/1.0561/1.0618

S: 1.0484/1.0453/1.0400

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INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:

Last Update At 22 Jul 2010 06:15 GMT

Range Forecast

1.5155 / 1.5185

Resistance/Support

R: 1.5203/1.5255/1.5335

S: 1.5154/1.5125/1.5086

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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader-23-7-2010

Market Review - 22/07/2010 22:12 GMT

Euro rallies on strong European manufacturing and services data

Although the single currency traded sideways at Asian morning following Wednesday's selloff from 1.2914 to 1.2732 and short-term speculators sold euro from 1.2787 at early European morning, buying interest at 1.2741 lifted the pair up and the single currency rebounded strongly as better-than-expected EU and German PMI data prompted traders to buy euro. Later, euro extended intra-day rally to a high of 1.2933 in New York after the release of better-than-expected U.S. home sales data, as U.S. existing home sales in June fell less sharply than expected to a 3-month low by 5.1% (consensus forecast was -8.1%).

German July's PMI for services and manufacturing sectors came in at 61.2 and 57.3 respectively, better than the economists' forecast of 58.0 and 54.5. EU PMI for services and manufacturing in July were released as 56.0 and 56.5, versus the expectations of 55.0 and 55.2. EU industrial new orders rose in May at their fastest annual pace in 10 years by 22.7% y/y, compared to the forecast of 20.2%.

The single currency was supported by the firmness in U.S. and European equities as DJI ended the day up by 202 points, or 1.99% at 10322 due to upbeat outlooks from 3M, UPS and Caterpillar, while S&P-500 and Nasdaq surged by 2.25% and 2.68%. FTSE-100, DAX and CAC-40 also rallied by 1.9%, 3.05% and 2.53% respectively.

Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback remained under pressure in Asia in reaction to Wednesday's Fed Bernanke's gloomy and uncertain outlook on the U.S. economy and hit an intra-day low of 86.34 at European morning on Thursday, the greenback rebounded from there and ratcheted higher to 86.92 as the rally in European equities improved risk appetites. Later, although the greenback dropped to 86.59 after the release of worse-than-expected U.S. jobless claims, which rose by 37,000 to 464K ( versus the forecasts of 445K), the dollar rose briefly but strongly to an intra-day high of 87.22 after the release of better-than-expected U.S. home sales data before stabilising.

Although the British pound traded narrowly in Asia following Wednesday's selloff from 1.5335 to 1.5125, buying interest at 1.5150 lifted the pair up at European morning and cable rallied to an intra-day high of 1.5296 after the release of stronger-than-expected U.K. June's retail sales, which came out at 0.7% m/m and 1.3% y/y, versus the expectations of 0.5% and 1.0%. Later, the pound retreated to 1.5234 on long liquidation and traded sideways in NY afternoon.

The commodity-linked currencies rallied against the US dollar due to the return of risk appetites, as the Australian dollar surged from 0.8737 to 0.8952, the New Zealand dollar rose sharply from 0.7098 to 0.7274 while usd/cad dropped from 1.0504 to 1.0356.

The market is focusing on the European banks stress-test results which will be announced around 16:00GMT on Friday.

Economic data to be released on Friday include: Australia Export prices, Import prices, Germany Ifo index, U.K. GDP, Canada CPI, EU Bank Stress-Test results.

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GBP/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.5450

Last Update At 26 Jul 2010 04:51 GMT

Cable's breach Friday's 1.5450 high after early

pullback to 1.5395 (AUS) suggests recent upmove wud

re-test this month's high at 1.5473 soon n then

extend gain to 1.5490/00, o/bot condition shud pre-

vent strg gain n reckon res at 1.5524 wud hold.

Raise long entry for this move n only below 1.53

95 wud confirm an intra-day top is in place.

Range Forecast

1.5445 / 1.5473

Resistance/Support

R: 1.5473/1.5498/1.5524

S: 1.5410/1.5395/1.5349

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