CatFx50 - page 82
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At the risk of boring everyone, and exposing the level of my newness to forex (!), some observations:
1. Keeping it simple. It seems we should minimize the number of signals we use for each side of the trade (market entry/market exit). Is there a need to confirm the direction of the market before we submit our order? Absolutely! However, the more indicators we use to confirm the direction of the market, the lesser the opportunities to trade. Do we wait for a confirmation from 5 signals? (I use the number 5 here purely for the sake of this discussion.) By the time that occurs, it could be way too late to enter the market. Statistically, what are the chances all 5 indicators will point in the same direction, at the same time? In times of dramatic price movement, the chances are probably fairly high. However, those price spikes are few and far between, aren't they?. Again, statistically speaking, even the chances of perhaps 2 or 3 signals pointing in the same direction at the same time are somewhat small. There is also the problem of having too much information. If you wish to use 5 indicators to confirm a market direction, you can mentally/emotionally paralyze yourself -- the first 3 indicators look like the trade should be a "go," but, do I wait for the other 2 indicators to confirm the confirmation, which has already been confirmed......??? Or, do I go ahead and enter the market based on only 3 of my 5 indicators?! We all play mind games with ourselves. Now, I realize anyone can go back into time and post a screen shot where 5, 7, even 10 indicators all point in the same direction at the same time, but, is that really realistic? Or necessary we have that many indicators?
Personally, I would like to use just 3 signals on each side of the trade. Assuming a potential long position in a currency pair: (1) What I would call the market-direction/entry signal, which tells me prices are headed up, and
(2) and (3), which I would call the confirmation signals. 3 signals total is just my preference. In Nina's System, the bar crossing the 50EMA is the 1st signal, the Step MA Stoch (and the subsequent bar opening above the 50EMA ?) is the 2nd (and 3rd ?) signal(s). Again, statistically, I believe that should give you a good market-entry point, while, at the same time, filtering out some of the less-desirable trades.
Our problem, at present, is finding those signals/indicators to indicate our exit from the market.....
Hi
I have a very simple question, I have a friend coming over to discuss Nina’s system and I want to have all my facts right. I prefer not to have to re-read the whole thread to find the answer.
On the EA’s there is a setting for the start and finish times (self explanatory). I note that the settings are defaulted at between 8 & 18. I note the times in Nina’s system as per the rules are from 7/8 & 16/17…. Which is all simple, however I just want to query if there is a reason that the default times differ, ie, why wouldn’t the default say start time to be at 7 .
Is this to skip any uk economic figures in that period, or is it simply a result of the setting of the cross bars @ 3 in the EA….
Am I reading to much into it and should I be using my own brain to figure it out…..
thanx
Now, on to my next observation:
2. Lagging vs. Leading. To borrow some terms from macroeconomics, we have what are called "leading" indicators, and what are called "lagging" indicators.
Lagging indicators look back in time, and tell us where we have been, and are used to "predict" the future. Basically, lagging indicators look to the past, to "predict" the future. In general, much of technical analysis is the use of lagging indicators. "X has happened in the past, so we expect Y to happen in the future."
To think of lagging indicators another way, we look to the past to explain how we came to where we are, now. "X happened in the past, so, now, we have Y."
Leading indicators look forward in time: using the PRESENT to predict the future. "X is happening right now, so we expect Y to happen in the future."
To look at leading indicators another way, we look at today, to try to see where we are going. "X is happening now, so, we expect Y to follow."
I suppose it could be argued that much of technical analysis is the use of leading indicators, but, in general, does not technical analysis look to the past, to find the start of a trend? Using the past to predict the future.....??
Ideally, we could find 2 or 3 indicators which would tell us exactly, right now, where prices are headed in the future, so we can know exactly when to close a trade. Does anyone have a crystal ball??
However, more realistically: Are there some technical indicators which respond more quickly than others, to price movement? Alternatively, are there indicators with less lag?
I've added numerous indicators, discussed here, to my MT4 charts. Look at all that color! LOL! So many indicators, in fact, it looks like Christmas! It looks as if Walt Disney became ill on my computer screen!
Seriously, though, some of these indicators do look promising for use as exit signals. There are others I will play around with.
Unfortunately, I don't have the apptitude for programming that some here obviously do! So, backtesting will be difficult, if not impossible, for me!
However, just based upon observation, and RSX(14), mentioned in earlier posts, look like they could be very good as additions to the Nina System, IMHO. I've also started playing around with Envelopes.......
Well, it's obvioulsy way past my bedtime! Sleep deprivation has led me to become way too philisophical (and verbose?! LOL!)
May the pips be with you all!
True also for the correlated USD/JPY as a long. Have fun.
Hi, Subsecond!
It is just my opinion: do not take USDJPY as a pair correlated with GBPUSD.
USDJPY is a crazy and wild horse. BOJ is always behind.
Nina
As I write this post, the cable is blasting about 65pips already.
Just want to confirm if any of you took this trade or any of you going to enter on the open of the next bar?? The Sto MA has just crossed on this bar.
So what do you guys do in this scenario?
As I write this post, the cable is blasting about 65pips already.
Just want to confirm if any of you took this trade or any of you going to enter on the open of the next bar?? The Sto MA has just crossed on this bar.
So what do you guys do in this scenario?Radical!
Look at FiboPivots. Look at where is price related to 50EMA.
Nina
Hi nina great system. Any idea when the new fisher will be ready or has it been fixed.
big mixed moved we had today, in our typical strong friday guys, i wish no one got screwed by the move long in cable. Enjoy your weekend guys.
big mixed moved we had today, in our typical strong friday guys, i wish no one got screwed by the move long in cable. Enjoy your weekend guys.
Hi!
Right, but nice day though.
Nina