First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
■ with regard to EUR/USD, the experts’ opinion on the "bearish" mood of the pair proved to be quite true - the pair fell by 120 points during the week. However, it lacked exactly the same amount to the minimum of 1.0650, which had been drawn by the graphical analysis. So we can assume that the forecast come only half true;
■ but as for GBP/USD, it managed to justify all the expectations of both indicators and experts, as well as of graphical analysis. Just to remind you, the indicators insisted on the continuation of the downtrend, and it continued - the pair dropped another 200 points. Experts had also been in anticipation of a rebound coming, and it happened, too, from Thursday, the pair went up. As for the graphical analysis on H1, it claimed that the top is situated at 1.4370, which was near missed by the pair, as it stopped at 1.4362;
■ forecast for USD/JPY consisted of two stages: first, it had to climb into the area 117.40 ÷ 118.00, and then go down to the support of 116.00. That is what happened with absolute precision - on Tuesday, the pair reached the resistance of 118.10, rebounded from it and on Wednesday turned out to be at the bottom level - 116.00. Although, the forecast indicated that this cycle would take all week, but the pair implemented both steps so quickly that it still had Thursday and Friday at its disposal. These two days were used by the pair for mounting to the lower boundary of the "triangle", which was painted last August - October;
■ but as for the future of USD/CHF, there was no consensus. The forecast given by graphical analysis turned out to be more or less true, with certain assumptions. It predicted on H1 at first growth of the pair to the level of 1.01125 (it rose to 1.00825), and then return to the level of 1.0020 (it stopped at the level of 1.0000). If we talk about longer time frames, the graphic analysis on D1 predicted a fast growth of the pair to the height of 1.02500, and in practice, it went sharply up, reaching the mark of 1.0165 by the end of the week.
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Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made basing on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
■ opinions on the behaviour of EUR/USD, surprisingly, were more or less unanimous - 75% analysts, 100% indicators on all time frames and graphical analysis on H1 voted for the pair falling to the zone of 1.0650 ÷ 1.0700. As regards the alternative scenario, 25% experts and graphical analysis on D1 supported "bullish" sentiment and the rise of the pair to the zone 1.0850 ÷ 1.0900. After that, however, it must still crumble down, in an effort to achieve the minimum of the first week of last December;
■ speaking of GBP/USD, analysts' opinions on the future of this pair were divided almost evenly: 33% - for its fall to the level of 1.4000, 33% - for its growth to the height of 1.4550, and the remaining third speaks about moving sideways. Indicators and graphical analysis on H4 agree with the latter, drawing a channel in the range from 1.4120 to 1.4330. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it supports those experts who speak about the continuation of a rebound upward calling exactly the same height - 1.4550;
■ indicators, together with graphical analysis on H4, talk about the continuation of the rebound to the level of 119.50 predicting the behaviour of USD/JPY. However, experts are again divided: one-third agree with the growth of the pair, 40% with the side trend with Pivot Point 118.00, and the remaining minority with its return to the minimum of the previous week;
■ and finally, the last pair of our review - USD/CHF. Last week, graphical analysis predicted its rise to the level of 1.0250. It has not given up this "bullish" forecast next week either, it just corrected the goal a little - to 1.0210, reaching which the pair should turn around and go back to Pivot Point 1.0080. Indicators on H4 and D1 and 70% of the experts also agree with this point of view. Analysts name the height of 1.0300 as the final goal of the pair's growth in the longer term, after which the descent to the level of 0.9800 will follow, and this may take from 2 to 3 weeks.
