– The first debate between U.S. presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris took place on 10 September. Although cryptocurrencies were not mentioned, the debate outcome had a negative impact on the prices of leading digital assets. Prior to the debate, Trump held a slight lead in prediction markets. For instance, on Polymarket, his chances stood at 53%, compared to Harris’s 46%. However, after the debate, both candidates’ odds equalised at 49%. On another prediction platform, PredictIt, the difference was more pronounced: after the debate, Harris’s chances rose to 56%, while Trump’s dropped to 47%.
Since Trump had positioned himself as a supporter of cryptocurrencies, while Harris had yet to clarify her stance on the matter, this shift in the balance negatively affected the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Following the debate, the value of the flagship asset dropped by approximately 3%.
– Analysts at Matrixport have published a forecast regarding the price movement of the leading cryptocurrency following the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. In their view, bitcoin will continue to rise, regardless of the voting results. Matrixport reminded readers that during Donald Trump’s presidency from 2016 to 2020, bitcoin saw a growth of 1,421%. Under Joe Biden's presidency, from 2020 to 2024, BTC's price increased by 313%. “Bitcoin can continue to thrive regardless of who wins the presidential election in November 2024 and takes the White House,” Matrixport analysts wrote. In their opinion, the next president is likely to have a greater impact on the regulation of the cryptocurrency market in the country than on bitcoin’s price itself.
– Experts at Bernstein have outlined a potential scenario for the cryptocurrency market depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. According to their forecast, bitcoin could test a range between $80,000 and $90,000 if Donald Trump wins, and between $30,000 and $40,000 if Kamala Harris becomes the occupant of the White House. “While some leaders in the crypto industry harbour illusions about Harris’s campaign and hope for more constructive policies, we expect a significant difference between the two political outcomes. A Harris victory will likely maintain the challenging regulatory environment that has stifled market growth in recent years,” Bernstein stated.
Analysts also reminded that the rhetoric of the U.S. presidential candidates differs greatly. Trump promises that the U.S. will become the "world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies," whereas Harris’s campaign avoids any mention of digital assets.
– Specialists at Gemini conducted a survey among 6,000 respondents from the U.S., UK, France, and Singapore. The results showed that from 2022 to 2024, the proportion of cryptocurrency ownership among traders and investors in the U.S. and UK remained virtually unchanged, standing at 21% and 18%, respectively. In France, the figure increased from 16% to 18%, while in Singapore, it dropped from 30% to 26%.
Respondents highlighted the issue of cryptocurrency regulation. In the U.S. and UK, 38% admitted that they refrain from acquiring digital assets due to legislative complexities. A similar view was expressed by 32% of those surveyed in France and about 50% in Singapore. Among those who purchased cryptocurrencies, 38% did so to hedge against inflation risks.
The Gemini report also noted that the gender gap among crypto investors has become more pronounced compared to 2022. Currently, 69% of digital asset owners identify as men, while 31% identify as women.
– The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has published a report revealing that nearly 70,000 complaints regarding cryptocurrency fraud were registered in 2023. Losses suffered by American citizens increased by 45% compared to 2022, reaching a record $5.6 billion. Victims reported falling into criminal schemes predominantly involving bitcoin, ethereum, and the stablecoin USDT. The most vulnerable demographic group was older Americans aged over 60, who collectively lost around $1.6 billion.
The majority of claims were related to crypto investments, accounting for nearly 71% of the total losses, or approximately $3.96 billion. Around 10% of complaints involved calls from scammers posing as government representatives through call centres. Other common forms of fraud noted by the FBI included schemes involving credit cards, extortion, malware, and romance scams, often conducted via social media and dating apps.
– The Head of Research at Bitcoin platform New York Digital Investment Group, Greg Cipolaro, has urged bitcoin holders to remain patient. In his opinion, September is unlikely to bring any surprises in terms of price growth for the flagship cryptocurrency.
As the main factor influencing the BTC rate, the expert pointed to the upcoming U.S. presidential election on 4 November. According to him, the outcome of this event will be a turning point for the entire crypto market, regardless of who wins. However, Cipolaro refrained from making a prediction about whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris would emerge victorious. The analyst is also convinced that factors such as employment data, inflation rates, and even changes to the Federal Reserve's interest rate will not have a lasting impact on bitcoin’s price.
– According to Coinglass, 9 September marked the end of the longest capital outflow phase from U.S. spot BTC-ETFs. The capitalisation of these funds began to decline on 26 August, during which they lost $1.2 billion. However, on Monday, 9 September, bitcoin ETFs attracted $28.6 million in capital, finally breaking the streak of losses.
It’s worth noting that this situation is not new. Since the start of BTC-ETF trading in the U.S. on 12 January 2024, the capitalisation of these derivatives has twice experienced seven consecutive days of decline (excluding weekends and holidays). This occurred from 24 April to 2 May and from 13 to 24 June, coinciding with a drop in the price of the leading cryptocurrency. Inflows into the funds have typically been accompanied by a significant rise in the digital asset’s value.
– Experts at 10x Research have noted that a potential 50 basis point interest rate cut, which could be announced following the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting on 17-18 September, might negatively affect the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
“A sharp rate cut is a sign of economic concern, not confidence,” the analysts believe. In their view, reducing borrowing costs by 50 basis points could indicate that the regulator is struggling to combat an impending downturn in the labour market. They also suggest that the community’s expectations of a rise in the price of the leading cryptocurrency may not materialise, as growth catalysts are absent and the Fed is focused on balancing support for the labour market with efforts to curb inflation.
– According to MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, bitcoin is set to increase in value by 70 times, reaching $3.85 million. He based his forecast on the technological superiority of the flagship cryptocurrency over other assets and its annual return. Since August 2020, when MicroStrategy began acquiring BTC, the cryptocurrency has delivered an average annual return of 44% to investors. By comparison, over the past four years, the S&P 500 index has grown by approximately 12% annually.
Saylor also claims that the recent capital outflow from Ethereum-based spot ETFs will only increase investor demand for bitcoin. He is confident that the future belongs to hodlers (long-term investors), who will outlast traders focused on short-term price fluctuations.
In the long term, the billionaire predicts that digital gold could rise to $13 million, although this is expected to happen by 2045. By 2050, bitcoin’s market capitalisation could account for 13% of global capital. For reference, it currently stands at around 0.1%.
– The prospects for the approval of a Solana ETF have become even more uncertain in recent months, largely due to the general difficulties facing the crypto market. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart highlighted the challenges that a potential launch of these funds is facing. Specifically, he pointed out that a major obstacle is the fact that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has classified Solana as a security in various legal proceedings.
Sui Chung, CEO of Kraken subsidiary CF Benchmarks, recently stated that a Solana-based ETF may never materialise. The reason, he explained, is that there are currently no significant regulated markets for futures tied to this token. Comparing Solana with existing spot ETFs, Chung emphasised that bitcoin and ethereum were listed on CME, the world’s largest derivatives market, several years before the SEC approved their ETFs. Furthermore, futures for these two cryptocurrencies had no contract violations, making SEC approval almost inevitable.
