The start 2018 should bring reassuring news for traditional economists as the strong US economy, with minimal slack will start producing steady inflation. Markets expect a strong rebound of US December core CPI of 0.3% m/m following a weak reading of 0.12% in the previous month...
Switzerland’s central bank is expecting a 2017 profit of a whopping CHF 54 billion! It follows a 2016 profit of CHF 24 billion, and comes after the bank’s 2015 decision to stop supporting the franc at CHF 1.20 per Euro...
German data tell the story: manufacturing sales increased 4.1% annually (expected 1.2%) and industrial production rose 3.4% monthly (expected 1.8%. Demand for European goods and services is and will remain strong...
Oil prices are at a 30-month high, despite boosted US production and inventories and a drop in the US rig count. The harsh winter is playing a short-term role, but some analysts are suggesting that 2018 prices will surge past our forecast of US$ 60-65 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate...
Everyone is going crazy for Bitcoins while few know about Ripple. Last year Ripple made a tremendous gain of 22,000% making it the best cryptocurrency. Ripple (XRP) ended last year as the second cryptocurrencysurpassing Ethereum. In January last year XRP was trading around $0...
UBS believes that cryptocurrencies meet most of the characteristics of a bubble. The one characteristic that is missing so far is that bubbles burst. Cryptocurrencies will no doubt meet that characteristic in time. It is unwise to directly bet against a bubble, however...
Who won yesterday’s election – the Catalexit crowd or the Remain-in-Spain supporters? It’s not clear! Both sides are claiming victory, and the parliament is split. Separatist parties took 70 of the 135 seats, but the pro-Spain Citizens Party won the most seats, 36...
It’s retracement time for Bitcoin: investors are taking profits, pushing the price back to around $13,000. For cryptocurrencies this is normal, i.e. boom and bust. We do not see this as a bubble bursting – it is a healthy correction...
The greenback continued to weaken for three straight sessions, as traders rotated into EUR and emerging market currencies. The Trump tax cut’s positive effect on equites is beginning to fade...
The total holdings of the Bank of Japan’s is now standing at all-time high. The Japanese quantitative easing has sent the level of debt very high because of the massive quantitative easing over the past decade. It has been a while that the sustainability of such a debt level is being questioned...
With a warning from US Federal Reserve banker Neel Kashkari that increasing interest could trigger a recession, dollar doves are alive and vocal. We believe they will prevail enough to block some additional hikes...
Global markets are celebrating US tax reform. Asian stocks followed the record session on Wall Street. This bull market keeps running past forecasts, and profit-taking to lock in a solid year is not happening. The World Bank increased its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2017 to 6...
Chinese growth has been helped by credit growth in recent years. Companies' borrowing helped raise debt from 150 percent of the economy to 270 percent of the economy in 10 years. Data suggests that credit growth continues to be important. Off-balance-sheet lending has replaced bank lending...
After the deluge in central bank reporting of recent days, the coming week looks far less busy. The Swedish central bank may decide on a final extension of its asset purchase program on Wednesday, but this should have only a limited impact on the currency...
The ECB meeting did not bring anything new on the table. The European Central Bank has held its rates unchanged and increased its forecast for growth for the next years. In addition, officials believe that the inflation won’t reach the target by 2020...
The Australian dollar extended gains for the fifth consecutive days after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released a better-than-expected November job report. Although the unemployment rate held steady at 5...
As expected the Fed ends up its year by increasing rates to the window 1.25% - 1.50%. It is finally the third time in the year that the US Central Bank increases rates...
The Federal Reserve opened the ball yesterday by raising borrowing costs. The central banks’ show will continue today with the SNB, Norges Bank, CBRT and ECB. As widely expected the Swiss National Bank didn’t change anything to its monetary policy set-up...
The SNB is not moving, unwilling to disrupt the markets current narrative. From the SNB vantage point macro and domestic conditions are in a sweet spot for current policy...
