Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu / Profil

As projected and indicated after completion of A pattern at 1746: XAUUSD moved from 1746 to 1756-1764 today.

XAUUSD under PPZ currently.

S2/R2 +/-3/6/9 crucial and ideal entries.

POF:
ECB + FOMC statements today eve
Post holiday sessions: HVPR expected

Next two weeks are extremely volatile weeks

This is NFP week, 14.12.2022: FOMC
15.12.2022: CRS

$1735/1717 and 1777/1818 crucial stops

CHINA: Bank RRR cut by 0.25

Meaning:

The reserve ratio/requirements set by the central bank are the amount of funds that a bank holds in reserve to ensure that it is able to meet liabilities in case of sudden withdrawals.

Reserve requirement ratio is a tool used by the central bank to increase or decrease the money supply in the economy and influence interest rates.

This means: more monetary stimulus = Higher Inflation

China’s economic outlook is darkening as Covid cases climb to a record and cities tighten restrictions to combat the spread of infections. Even with a RRR cut and more monetary stimulus, the economy is still likely to be pressured by Covid Zero.

China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index of stocks fell 0.5% as of 1:16 p.m. local time as the country reported a record high number of Covid cases. The yield on 10-year government bonds rose 4 basis points after a decline of 7 basis points in the previous session. The onshore yuan traded 0.28% stronger at 7.1378 per dollar.

Releasing more low-cost cash via a RRR reduction could encourage banks to lend to ailing developers as China takes more concerted steps to put a floor under the property crisis. Regulators this week asked banks to stabilize lending to the firms, a call that’s been heeded by major state-owned banks, who are offering at least 220 billion yuan ($31 billion) in new credit to developers.

Gold price eyes more upside amid light trading on Thanksgiving Day. STAY ALERT.

Gold price is rejoicing fresh bids above the $1,750 psychological level in what seems to be another down day for the United States Dollar (USD). Investors are likely to hold the recent upside in Gold price amid holiday-thinned light trading conditions on account of Thanksgiving Day in the United States this Thursday.

United States data, Federal Reserve minutes smash US Dollar

The US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields are reeling from the pain inflicted by the dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) November meeting minutes and discouraging top-tier United States economic releases. The FOMC minutes read: "A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate" adding that “a slower pace in these circumstances would better allow the Committee to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability.”

China covid woes affect physical Gold demand

Amidst a dovish Federal Reserve pivot, Gold price has ignored China’s covid resurgence and fresh restrictions even though these factors have impacted the physical gold demand in Asia this week. Gold premiums in top hub China have eased further while higher domestic prices have curbed the demand for the yellow metal in India. Note that India and China are the world’s top two Gold consumers. China's daily coronavirus cases hit a record high since the beginning of the pandemic, the official data showed Thursday. The country recorded 31,454 domestic cases, with major cities back under lockdown restrictions.

The market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, as the Federal Reserve’s dovishness overshadows China’s covid concerns, as traders from the United States move on the sidelines to celebrate Thanksgiving Day.

DXY 106.250
AAAU 17.32
US10YT 3.743
US F - in RT + zone

US S 19
AUD 69
JPY 69
EUR 50

XAUXAG 81.51

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23.11.2022 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis

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What Happens When A Crypto Exchange Goes Bankrupt?

Cryptocurrency users have limited recourse if the cryptocurrency company that they use goes bankrupt.

After the bankruptcies of crypto firms Celsius and Voyager, investors have a reason for concern.

Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by government-backed insurance.

Key Examples:

Celsius Network, a large cryptocurrency lending platform, filed for bankruptcy protection on July 13, 2022. The filing came about a month after Celsius paused all withdrawals, swaps, and transfers among customer accounts. In a filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York, Celsius shared that it owes roughly $1.2 billion more than it has on hand.

How to Recover Funds from a Bankrupt Cryptocurrency Company

If you followed know your customer (KYC) requirements and created your account with legitimate information, the crypto company should have your contact information and an accounting of what you’re owed on file. If the company goes bankrupt, you should ideally hear from them right away with information on recovering funds.

Most companies will employ their own process to distribute funds to customers. That may require you to follow up by completing forms, confirming your address or payment information, and keeping up with any other necessary paperwork to get your crypto or cash returned.

While there’s a risk that cryptocurrency investors could get no money or crypto back after bankruptcy, there’s also a chance that they will get something back—even if it’s just a portion of their original investment.

Are cryptocurrencies backed by other assets?

Each cryptocurrency is unique and follows its own set of rules and features. Some cryptocurrencies, like stablecoins, have assets backing them, while others don’t.

Check Daily SPOT Gold Price Forecast at:

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CMP 1755

As projected on 04.11.2022
Breach of 1692 = 1717/1735/1755

Read analysis at https://bit.ly/04112022NFPAnalysisPR

As projected in NFP Analysis: https://bit.ly/04112022NFPAnalysisPR

IF Gold breaches 1692: 1717.1735,1755 NEXT | Friday high: 1772

See analysis on Instagram: @prgoldanalysis | Copy and paste this url in browser: bit.ly/PRXAUD1

Current status

DXY -
USDJPY -
US10YT 4.073-
US F RT mode +

US S 44
EUR 9
JPY 76
AUD 55

XAUXAG 80.59 -
AAU BAR + 16.66+ C

14.11.2022 ahead: STAY ALERT
Mr. TRUMP to surprise all on 15.11.2022
(As broadcasted)

Yesterday’s high: 1717
Today’s low: 1706.92

1717-1707 achieved.

Selling price as mentioned in my analysis published at 19.28 hours yesterday evening.

Net pips: 10*100= 1000 pips.

See analysis on Instagram: @prgoldanalysis | Copy and paste this url in browser: bit.ly/PRXAUD1

BTCUSD: touched $18,000 mark ahead

14.11.2022: remarkable day, the turning point.
As observed since last 4 years.

Time to HOLD BTCUSD | CMP 18100

Target: 20,000 | 11% ROI on the cards.

High volumes based price movement observed in XAUUSD and major currencies. 200-300 pips price movement traced in M1 - USDJPY indicating a major role of bank.

CAC completed 100% RT

US F next? If yes, then Impact: XAUUSD crash.

HVPR expected.

NFP Analysis: https://bit.ly/04112022NFPAnalysisPR

SUMMARY of FED MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT:

"Effective November 3, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

o Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent.

o Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 4 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.

o Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.8 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the percounterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.

o Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.

o Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month.

o Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.

o Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

Important point from the policy:

The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May.

Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

IMPACT: more higher interest rates = pressure on GOLD

POLICY: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20221102a1.pdf

North Korea Warns US With ‘Powerful Measures’ After Drills

North Korea threatened to unleash a powerful action if the US does not halt joint military drills with partners including South Korea, in what might be an effort by Kim Jong Un to lay the groundwork for his first nuclear test in five years.

“If the US continuously persists in the grave military provocations, the DPRK will take into account more powerful follow-up measures,” the state’s foreign ministry said in a statement released on official media Tuesday. Such ministry statements are often used by the country, officially known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, to make clear the warning is coming from Kim’s regime.

The US and South Korea this week started joint air drills known as Vigilant Storm that will run through Friday and involve about 240 aircraft in about 1,600 sorties to “hone their wartime capabilities,” the US 7th Air Force said in a statement. The drills have added to a series of joint exercises on land, sea and air in recent weeks, some of which have also included Japan, that have led to complaints and provocations from Pyongyang.

“If the U.S. does not want any serious developments not suited to its security interests, it should stop the useless and ineffective war exercises at once,” said the statement from the Foreign Ministry, which was released by the official Korean Central News Agency. “If not, it will have to totally take the blame for all the consequences.”

North Korea has finished preparations for a nuclear test, South Korea’s president told parliament, stoking concerns that Pyongyang’s first blast of an atomic device in five years could be imminent.

“We assess that it has already completed preparations for a seventh nuclear test,” Yoon Suk Yeol said Tuesday, adding Kim Jong Un’s regime has defended the preemptive use of nuclear weapons.

Impact: XAUUSD +$100-120 in 48 hours

Saudi Arabia, US Share Intel on Possible Iran Attack

Saudi Arabia and the US have shared information indicating Iran may attack the kingdom or other nations in the region sometime soon, leading Washington and Riyadh to adjust their military posture, according to people familiar with the matter.

The two countries as well as regional allies have raised their military alert level, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing internal deliberations. They described the possible attacks as an effort to distract from nationwide protests that have roiled Iran in recent weeks.

Tensions remain high, with Iran arrayed against Saudi Arabia and other nations in the region after a series of attacks in recent years that included Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps firing more than 70 missiles in September into Iraq’s Kurdish region, where the US still has troops stationed. In addition, a United Nations-brokered truce between Yemen’s government backed by the Saudis and the Iran-backed Shiite Houthi rebel militia has expired.

IMPACT: XAUUSD + $75-120 price movement in 24/48 hours.

North Korea Fires 10 Missiles in Biggest-Ever Daily Barrage

North Korea fired at least 10 ballistic missiles Wednesday including one that was the first to fly over a nautical border with South Korea, in its biggest daily barrage under leader Kim Jong Un.

The launches came about a day after Pyongyang threatened to take “powerful measures” if the US doesn’t halt military drills with partners including South Korea, in what might be an effort by Kim to lay the groundwork for his first nuclear test in five years.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol called the launch a territorial violation, and his country responded a few hours later by firing three air-to surface missiles into international waters on North Korea’s side of the sea border known as the Northern Limit Line.

South Korea protested the move, which came as it was in a national mourning period over the deaths at the weekend of 156 people killed in a crowd crush at a nightlife district in Seoul. South Korea’s military also raised its alertness level, Yonhap News Agency reported.

Point to be noted: may be a co-incidence, however North Korea had fired missile towards Japan cost last month after ISM PMI data was published, and same was observed this month too. ISM PMI data was published yesterday eve.

Gold demand firmer in Q3: Year-to-date gold demand resumes its pre-pandemic pace

Healthy Q3, driven by stronger consumer and central bank buying, helped year-to-date demand recover to pre-COVID norms.
Gold demand (excluding OTC) in Q3 was 28% higher y-o-y at 1,181t. Year-to-date (y-t-d) demand increased 18% vs the same period in 2021, returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Jewellery consumption reached a robust 523t, increasing 10% y-o-y despite the deteriorating global economic backdrop. Y-t-d demand is slightly firmer (+2%) at 1,454t.

Investment demand (excluding OTC) for Q3 was 47% lower y-o-y at 124t, reflecting weak sentiment among some investor segments. 36% growth in bar and coin investment (to 351t) was insufficient to offset 227t of ETF outflows. OTC demand contracted significantly during the quarter, echoing weak investor sentiment in ETFs and futures markets.

Central banks continued to accumulate gold, with purchases estimated at a quarterly record of nearly 400t.

An 8% y-o-y fall in technology demand reflected a fall in consumer demand for electronics due to the global economic downturn.

Total gold supply increased marginally (+1% y-o-y) to 1,215t. A sixth consecutive quarter of y-o-y growth in mine production was partly offset by lower levels of recycling.

Why do central banks purchase gold?

Central banks serve a few primary functions, including setting interest rates, regulating monetary policy and controlling the printing and circulation of coins and bills.

However, their most important task is to provide price stability to their national currency while preventing banking system collapse. This is achieved through controlling inflation — although as the present global economic crisis has shown, sometimes the fate of a country’s currency may be difficult for a national bank to control.

This risk is part of the reason central bank gold buying has increased in the last decade.

As the Dutch central bank notes, “A bar of gold always keeps its value. Crisis or not. That gives a safe feeling. The gold holdings of a central bank are therefore a beacon of confidence.”

Since central banks became net buyers of gold a decade ago, the metal's price has increased 88 percent. In 2010, the price of an ounce of gold was US$1,096. At its 2020 peak, gold was selling for US$2,063.

After making the second largest net gold purchase (25 MT) by a central bank in Q1 2020, the Russian central bank suspended new gold purchases. Demand for gold from the Russian bank had been steady since 2006 prior to that point. At the time, weakening oil prices, rising bullion prices and the country’s already robust gold reserves were the likely reasons behind the buying moratorium.

However, the higher gold price didn’t stop India and Turkey’s central banks from growing their gold holdings. In 2020, Turkey made the largest net purchase of gold, acquiring 198 MT, while India added more than 24 MT.

One of the primary reasons (Turkey and India) have been adding gold to their holdings is the weakness in their domestic currencies, which they seek to hedge by purchasing dollar denominated gold.

Having added a net 19.4 metric tons (t) of gold to their reserves in April, central banks added a further 35t in May, with the same banks largely responsible for the main additions during both months—Turkey (13.3t), Uzbekistan (9t), Kazakhstan (6.3t) and India (3.8t). Qatar also added 4.7t of gold to its reserves in May to replenish all of the gold it had sold earlier in the year, the WGC noted, while Germany was the only major country to be a net seller in the month, shedding its gold reserves by 2t.

All this means that 2022 is shaping up to be a year for considerable gold acquisition by many countries worldwide, particularly emerging markets. “Year-to-date, reported buying has been dominated by Turkey (56t), Egypt (44t) and Iraq (34t), and supported by more modest buying from a small number of other banks,” according to WGC’s senior analyst for EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa), Krishan Gopaul. “And while we have seen a larger number of banks reduce their gold holdings so far in 2022, the total volume of sales is below that of purchases.”

As such, recent gold-buying activity extends a multi-year trend of central banks adding to their gold reserves. Last year saw them buy a net 463t, 82 percent more than they acquired in 2020 and the 12th year in a row in which they were net buyers. The WGC reported earlier in the year that central banks hold more than 35,000t of gold, equivalent to around one-fifth of all the gold that has ever been mined, further underlining their insatiable appetite for the yellow metal.

Global central banks hold more than 35,500 metric tons (MT) of gold in their reserves. Most of that supply has been amassed since 2010, when central bankers commenced a gold-buying spree.

Central banks were net sellers of gold before that time, selling roughly 4,426 MT of gold between 2000 and 2009. But for more than a decade now they’ve been net buyers, and in 2022 central bank gold reserves are at their highest level since 1990, according to data provided by the World Gold Council (WGC).

What does this indicate:

GOLD will shoot UP.

Those who can, HOLD GOLD.

Those who lack liquidity, exit positions, before you lose everything, a BIG price movement is awaited: and at the end of the next market cycle: retail traders should enter to make safe profits.

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ECB interest rate

The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 2.00%, 2.25% and 1.50% respectively, with effect from 2 November 2022.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it started raising the key ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain ample liquidity conditions and an appropriate monetary policy stance.

As concerns the PEPP, the Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

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TLTRO

The targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) are Eurosystem operations that provide financing to credit institutions. By offering banks long-term funding at attractive conditions they preserve favourable borrowing conditions for banks and stimulate bank lending to the real economy.

The TLTROs, therefore, reinforce the ECB’s current accommodative monetary policy stance and strengthen the transmission of monetary policy by further incentivising bank lending to the real economy.

TLTRO III

The third TLTRO programme consists of a series of ten targeted longer-term refinancing operations, each with a maturity of three years, starting in September 2019 at a quarterly frequency. Borrowing rates in these operations can be as low as 50 basis points below the average interest rate on the deposit facility over the period from 24 June 2020 to 23 June 2022, and as low as the average interest rate on the deposit facility calculated over the life of the respective TLTRO III during the rest of the life of the same operation.