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Piyush Ratnu is an independent forex market analyst & trader with core expertise in XAUUSD/Spot Gold.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Shrinking gap between M5 M15 M30 SMA is a clear sign of high volatility price action ahead.
Kindly avoid BIG LOTS. Implement Risk Management.
Gold (XAU/USD) continues trading in a familiar range within our projected price range: the $2,323-$2,332, just below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Tuesday, amid Futures’ traders “short-covering”, as well as “bargain hunting” by longer-term investors
Unresolved geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, a lurch right politically in Europe, Trump, and growing fracture lines along ideological, political, and economic grounds between the East and West – exemplified by the expansion of the BRICS trading confederation – are increasingly posing a threat to the smooth running of global free trade.
As a safe-haven in times of crisis and probably the only viable alternative to the dominance of the US Dollar, Gold steps forward as a leading actor on the new world order’s stage.
Are traders FED up with THE FED's DRAMA?
Gold is trapped in a range as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains reluctant to commit to a date for when it will begin cutting interest rates. Gold is a non-interest-paying asset, so there is an opportunity cost to holding it. This opportunity cost continues to remain high as long as the Fed waits. When the Fed does finally start cutting interest rates, however, it will provide a positive back wind for Gold.
Although the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, continued to fall in line with expectations in May, reaching 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) – another step closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target – Fed officials speaking after the event still remained coy about committing to cuts.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin talked of “lags” in monetary tightening playing out and cautioned that "services and shelter price-setters still have room to push prices higher." Prior to him, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC that cooling inflation showed that the monetary policy was working as it should, but that it was still too early to tell when it would be appropriate to cut interest rates.
Now traders are awaiting more commentary from Chairman of the Fed Jerome Powell on Tuesday, whilst US jobs data including JOLTS Job Openings and then the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday could all color the outlook for interest rates and impact Gold.
SUMMARY:
Investors now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later this Tuesday for some meaningful impetus ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
Crucial price Zones B/S Stops this week:
🔺SZ $2369/2385/2407/2424
🔻BZ $2303/2288/2266/2244
Net movement of $90 🔻🔺 from CMP $2323 is expected.
USDJPY: CMP $161.636
Key Economic Data this week:
Today:
17:30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
17:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
18:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (May) 7.960M 8.059M
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 (Low volume alert)🆘
Holiday United States - Independence Day - Early close at 13:00
16:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) 159K 152K
16:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,840K 1,839K
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 235K 233K
16:30 USD Trade Balance (May) -76.00B -74.60B
17:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun) 54.6 54.5
17:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) 55.1 54.8
18:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (May) 0.2% 0.7%
18:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jun) 47.1
18:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 52.7 53.8
18:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun)
Thursday, July 4, 2024 (Low Volume Alert)🆘
All Day Holiday United States - Independence Day
⚠️Friday, July 5, 2024 ($24/42/69) price movement expected)
🆘 HIGH VOLAILITY PRICE ACTION DAY, may continue for next three trading days.
00:30 USD Fed's Balance Sheet
16:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Jun) 4.1%
16:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) 0.3% 0.4%
🟢16:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) 189K 272K
16:30 USD Participation Rate (Jun) 62.5%
16:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) 160K 229K
16:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Jun) 7.4%
16:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.0% 4.0%
🟢19:00 USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
#PiyushRatnu #PRDXB #XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #Trading #Education
Shrinking gap between M5 M15 M30 SMA is a clear sign of high volatility price action ahead.
Kindly avoid BIG LOTS. Implement Risk Management.
Gold (XAU/USD) continues trading in a familiar range within our projected price range: the $2,323-$2,332, just below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Tuesday, amid Futures’ traders “short-covering”, as well as “bargain hunting” by longer-term investors
Unresolved geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, a lurch right politically in Europe, Trump, and growing fracture lines along ideological, political, and economic grounds between the East and West – exemplified by the expansion of the BRICS trading confederation – are increasingly posing a threat to the smooth running of global free trade.
As a safe-haven in times of crisis and probably the only viable alternative to the dominance of the US Dollar, Gold steps forward as a leading actor on the new world order’s stage.
Are traders FED up with THE FED's DRAMA?
Gold is trapped in a range as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains reluctant to commit to a date for when it will begin cutting interest rates. Gold is a non-interest-paying asset, so there is an opportunity cost to holding it. This opportunity cost continues to remain high as long as the Fed waits. When the Fed does finally start cutting interest rates, however, it will provide a positive back wind for Gold.
Although the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, continued to fall in line with expectations in May, reaching 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) – another step closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target – Fed officials speaking after the event still remained coy about committing to cuts.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin talked of “lags” in monetary tightening playing out and cautioned that "services and shelter price-setters still have room to push prices higher." Prior to him, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC that cooling inflation showed that the monetary policy was working as it should, but that it was still too early to tell when it would be appropriate to cut interest rates.
Now traders are awaiting more commentary from Chairman of the Fed Jerome Powell on Tuesday, whilst US jobs data including JOLTS Job Openings and then the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday could all color the outlook for interest rates and impact Gold.
SUMMARY:
Investors now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later this Tuesday for some meaningful impetus ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
Crucial price Zones B/S Stops this week:
🔺SZ $2369/2385/2407/2424
🔻BZ $2303/2288/2266/2244
Net movement of $90 🔻🔺 from CMP $2323 is expected.
USDJPY: CMP $161.636
Key Economic Data this week:
Today:
17:30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
17:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
18:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (May) 7.960M 8.059M
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 (Low volume alert)🆘
Holiday United States - Independence Day - Early close at 13:00
16:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) 159K 152K
16:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,840K 1,839K
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 235K 233K
16:30 USD Trade Balance (May) -76.00B -74.60B
17:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun) 54.6 54.5
17:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) 55.1 54.8
18:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (May) 0.2% 0.7%
18:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jun) 47.1
18:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 52.7 53.8
18:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun)
Thursday, July 4, 2024 (Low Volume Alert)🆘
All Day Holiday United States - Independence Day
⚠️Friday, July 5, 2024 ($24/42/69) price movement expected)
🆘 HIGH VOLAILITY PRICE ACTION DAY, may continue for next three trading days.
00:30 USD Fed's Balance Sheet
16:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Jun) 4.1%
16:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) 0.3% 0.4%
🟢16:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) 189K 272K
16:30 USD Participation Rate (Jun) 62.5%
16:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) 160K 229K
16:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Jun) 7.4%
16:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.0% 4.0%
🟢19:00 USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
#PiyushRatnu #PRDXB #XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #Trading #Education
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
CMP: $2333 XAUUSD at R1 PPZ
R2: $2355 / S2: $2300 crucial
#XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu #Gold #Forex
R2: $2355 / S2: $2300 crucial
#XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu #Gold #Forex
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🟢 Economic Data ahead:
16:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) 0.1% 0.2%
16:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May) 2.6% 2.8%
16:30 USD PCE price index (MoM) (May) 0.0% 0.3%
16:30 USD PCE Price index (YoY) (May) 2.6% 2.7%
16:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.2%
17:45 USD Chicago PMI (Jun) 39.7 35.4
16:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) 0.1% 0.2%
16:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May) 2.6% 2.8%
16:30 USD PCE price index (MoM) (May) 0.0% 0.3%
16:30 USD PCE Price index (YoY) (May) 2.6% 2.7%
16:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.2%
17:45 USD Chicago PMI (Jun) 39.7 35.4
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Key Economic Data today and tomorrow:
🍎 Today:
00:30 USD Fed Bank Stress Test Results
00:30 USD Fed's Balance Sheet
🍎 Tomorrow:
7,253B
03:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.0% 1.9%
03:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (May) 2.0% -0.9%
05:00 USD U.S. President Biden Speaks
10:00 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1) 0.9% 1.4%
10:00 GBP Current Account (Q1) -17.7B -21.2B
10:00 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% -0.3%
10:00 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q1) 0.2% -0.2%
14:00 EUR EU Leaders Summit
14:00 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
🟢 High Volatility News
16:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) 0.1% 0.2%
16:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May) 2.6% 2.8%
16:30 USD PCE price index (MoM) (May) 0.0% 0.3%
16:30 USD PCE Price index (YoY) (May) 2.6% 2.7%
16:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.2%
17:45 USD Chicago PMI (Jun) 39.7 35.4
🍎 Today:
00:30 USD Fed Bank Stress Test Results
00:30 USD Fed's Balance Sheet
🍎 Tomorrow:
7,253B
03:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.0% 1.9%
03:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (May) 2.0% -0.9%
05:00 USD U.S. President Biden Speaks
10:00 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1) 0.9% 1.4%
10:00 GBP Current Account (Q1) -17.7B -21.2B
10:00 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% -0.3%
10:00 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q1) 0.2% -0.2%
14:00 EUR EU Leaders Summit
14:00 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
🟢 High Volatility News
16:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) 0.1% 0.2%
16:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May) 2.6% 2.8%
16:30 USD PCE price index (MoM) (May) 0.0% 0.3%
16:30 USD PCE Price index (YoY) (May) 2.6% 2.7%
16:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.2%
17:45 USD Chicago PMI (Jun) 39.7 35.4
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Will this FRIDAY prove a FRY DAY for GOLD TRADERS?
🔘 Current status:
XAUUSD price slipped to $2313 zone, RT $2323 zone
Gold price tumbled after reaching a weekly high of $2,334 and fell as the Greenback staged a recovery underpinned by a minimal rise in US Treasury bond yields, spurred by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman's hawkish comments. The XAU/USD trades at $2,319, down 0.59% after recovering from $2310 mark projected by us yesterday as a buying zone.
The Federal Reserve's recent indication of only one interest rate cut this year has increased market uncertainty. The gold market is currently in a holding pattern as traders await key inflation figures due later this week, which could provide significant clues about the future direction of monetary policy. Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve surprised markets by indicating only one interest rate cut this year, maintaining a hawkish stance on inflation by keeping borrowing costs at a 23-year high. This marked a significant shift from the Federal Open Market Committee's previous projection of three cuts in 2024. The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to show a slight slowdown in May, potentially adding to the evidence from the Consumer and Producer Price Index reports that inflation is easing in the U.S. Traders are also monitoring other economic indicators such as initial jobless claims, pending home sales, and first-quarter GDP figures, which will help gauge the strength of the U.S. economy. These data points will be crucial in determining when the Fed might initiate its first rate cut, with current market pricing suggesting a September timeline. As a result, the gold market remains sensitive to these developments, with any deviation from expectations likely to create significant trading opportunities.
🔘Will Bears Roar?
Gold prices form a head and shoulders pattern and show bearish price action, as shown in the chart below. This head and shoulders formation is followed by the emergence of a bear flag, with prices now attempting to break through this pattern. The typical price behaviour in June, characterized by choppy and overlapping movements, has created a bearish tone in the gold market. However, the long-term price structure remains strongly bullish. If prices continue to decline from here and break below $2285, it will likely initiate a quick drop. However, this quick drop is expected to reverse higher, marking a strong bottom for the next significant upward move.
🔘Facts
• Federal Reserve policymakers continue to argue in favor of keeping rates higher for longer, which pushes the US Treasury bond yields higher and caps the upside for the non-yielding Gold price.
• A survey from the Conference Board showed on Tuesday that the US Consumer Confidence Index ticked lower to 100.4 in June from 101.3 in the previous month amid worries about the economic outlook.
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned US Ambassador Lynne Tracy earlier this week and blamed the US for a barbaric attack in Crimea, and said that retaliatory measures would “definitely follow”.
• Concerns about an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon remain alive in the wake of soaring tensions on provocations by Hezbollah, helping limit the downside for the safe-haven precious metal.
• Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and now look forward to the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday for some meaningful impetus.
• Gold serves particularly well as an inflation hedge. Since 1971 it has outpaced both U.S. and and global CPI. The yellow metal also tends to do well in high inflation periods. This has proved true during the recent inflationary cycle. The price of gold has increased by about 29 percent since June 2021 (as inflation started heating up). In that same period, CPI increased by 12.30 percent based on official Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Ultimately, gold is money. And it is sound money. Every major currency has depreciated significantly compared to gold. Despite its strong performance over time, most investors don't hold any gold in their portfolios. Is it perhaps time to change that?
🔘Crucial Price Zones:
🔻 BZ $2288/2266/2244 | ultimate RT target $2222/2200/2185 trap
🔺SZ $2342/2369/2385 |2400+ 2407/2424/2442
🔘Refer Algorithm: PRSDBS PRSR Set W1 and MN
#PiyushRatnu #Forex #XAUUSDAnalysis #Gold #PRDXB
Will this FRIDAY prove a FRY DAY for GOLD TRADERS?
🔘 Current status:
XAUUSD price slipped to $2313 zone, RT $2323 zone
Gold price tumbled after reaching a weekly high of $2,334 and fell as the Greenback staged a recovery underpinned by a minimal rise in US Treasury bond yields, spurred by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman's hawkish comments. The XAU/USD trades at $2,319, down 0.59% after recovering from $2310 mark projected by us yesterday as a buying zone.
The Federal Reserve's recent indication of only one interest rate cut this year has increased market uncertainty. The gold market is currently in a holding pattern as traders await key inflation figures due later this week, which could provide significant clues about the future direction of monetary policy. Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve surprised markets by indicating only one interest rate cut this year, maintaining a hawkish stance on inflation by keeping borrowing costs at a 23-year high. This marked a significant shift from the Federal Open Market Committee's previous projection of three cuts in 2024. The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to show a slight slowdown in May, potentially adding to the evidence from the Consumer and Producer Price Index reports that inflation is easing in the U.S. Traders are also monitoring other economic indicators such as initial jobless claims, pending home sales, and first-quarter GDP figures, which will help gauge the strength of the U.S. economy. These data points will be crucial in determining when the Fed might initiate its first rate cut, with current market pricing suggesting a September timeline. As a result, the gold market remains sensitive to these developments, with any deviation from expectations likely to create significant trading opportunities.
🔘Will Bears Roar?
Gold prices form a head and shoulders pattern and show bearish price action, as shown in the chart below. This head and shoulders formation is followed by the emergence of a bear flag, with prices now attempting to break through this pattern. The typical price behaviour in June, characterized by choppy and overlapping movements, has created a bearish tone in the gold market. However, the long-term price structure remains strongly bullish. If prices continue to decline from here and break below $2285, it will likely initiate a quick drop. However, this quick drop is expected to reverse higher, marking a strong bottom for the next significant upward move.
🔘Facts
• Federal Reserve policymakers continue to argue in favor of keeping rates higher for longer, which pushes the US Treasury bond yields higher and caps the upside for the non-yielding Gold price.
• A survey from the Conference Board showed on Tuesday that the US Consumer Confidence Index ticked lower to 100.4 in June from 101.3 in the previous month amid worries about the economic outlook.
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned US Ambassador Lynne Tracy earlier this week and blamed the US for a barbaric attack in Crimea, and said that retaliatory measures would “definitely follow”.
• Concerns about an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon remain alive in the wake of soaring tensions on provocations by Hezbollah, helping limit the downside for the safe-haven precious metal.
• Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and now look forward to the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday for some meaningful impetus.
• Gold serves particularly well as an inflation hedge. Since 1971 it has outpaced both U.S. and and global CPI. The yellow metal also tends to do well in high inflation periods. This has proved true during the recent inflationary cycle. The price of gold has increased by about 29 percent since June 2021 (as inflation started heating up). In that same period, CPI increased by 12.30 percent based on official Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Ultimately, gold is money. And it is sound money. Every major currency has depreciated significantly compared to gold. Despite its strong performance over time, most investors don't hold any gold in their portfolios. Is it perhaps time to change that?
🔘Crucial Price Zones:
🔻 BZ $2288/2266/2244 | ultimate RT target $2222/2200/2185 trap
🔺SZ $2342/2369/2385 |2400+ 2407/2424/2442
🔘Refer Algorithm: PRSDBS PRSR Set W1 and MN
#PiyushRatnu #Forex #XAUUSDAnalysis #Gold #PRDXB
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
US10YT - 4.224
DXY + 105.280
XAUXAG 79.00
XAUXPD 2.4206
USDJPY 159.456 (ATH)
USD S 90
AUD S 22
JPY S 80
🆘 Data at 17.00 hours
Crucial Price Entries:
🔻BZ $2313/2303/2288
🔺SZ $2349/2359/2369
Refer Algo: PRSR D1 MTD
DXY + 105.280
XAUXAG 79.00
XAUXPD 2.4206
USDJPY 159.456 (ATH)
USD S 90
AUD S 22
JPY S 80
🆘 Data at 17.00 hours
Crucial Price Entries:
🔻BZ $2313/2303/2288
🔺SZ $2349/2359/2369
Refer Algo: PRSR D1 MTD
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the early European trading bours on Monday and recovers a part of its retracement slide from a two-week high touched on Friday. Despite the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish surprise, forecasting only one rate cut in 2024, the markets are still pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts this year amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. This, in turn, is seen weighing on the US Treasury bond yields, which, along with a softer risk tone, geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in Europe, lend support to the safe-haven commodity.
Persistent US Dollar strength and a 🔺sharp upsurge in Palladium price weighed heavily on Gold price last Friday. The Greenback extended its recovery momentum alongside the US Treasury bond yields after the S&P Global preliminary US business activity jumped to a 26-month high. The Composite PMI Output Index that tracks the manufacturing and services sectors rose to the highest level since April 2022 at 54.6 this month. The final reading in May was at 54.5.
📌 Gold-Palladium Ratio:
When the ratio is low, it means that gold is undervalued relative to palladium. When the ratio is high, it means that gold is overvalued relative to palladium. Investors can thus use the ratio as a timing indicator deciding when to rebalance their positions in gold and palladium.
🔘 Check Gold:Palladium Ratios at:
https://www.gold.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/palladium/10year/
🔘 Check Gold:Silver Ratios at:
https://www.gold.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/palladium/10year/
Co-relations:
XAUXPD -8.0%
XAUXAG 78.45
XAUUSD $2330
US10YT 4.247
USDJPY 159.770
US F 1 - 2 3 + (MR)
🟢 XAUUSD: Crucial Price Zones today:
🔺 SZ $2342 2369 2385
🔻 BZ $2313 2288 2266
🟢 USDJPY under heavy SHORT ORDER ZONE
I expected a correction till$ 158.588 / 156.566
Persistent US Dollar strength and a 🔺sharp upsurge in Palladium price weighed heavily on Gold price last Friday. The Greenback extended its recovery momentum alongside the US Treasury bond yields after the S&P Global preliminary US business activity jumped to a 26-month high. The Composite PMI Output Index that tracks the manufacturing and services sectors rose to the highest level since April 2022 at 54.6 this month. The final reading in May was at 54.5.
📌 Gold-Palladium Ratio:
When the ratio is low, it means that gold is undervalued relative to palladium. When the ratio is high, it means that gold is overvalued relative to palladium. Investors can thus use the ratio as a timing indicator deciding when to rebalance their positions in gold and palladium.
🔘 Check Gold:Palladium Ratios at:
https://www.gold.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/palladium/10year/
🔘 Check Gold:Silver Ratios at:
https://www.gold.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/palladium/10year/
Co-relations:
XAUXPD -8.0%
XAUXAG 78.45
XAUUSD $2330
US10YT 4.247
USDJPY 159.770
US F 1 - 2 3 + (MR)
🟢 XAUUSD: Crucial Price Zones today:
🔺 SZ $2342 2369 2385
🔻 BZ $2313 2288 2266
🟢 USDJPY under heavy SHORT ORDER ZONE
I expected a correction till$ 158.588 / 156.566
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Friday’s US options expiration may provide volatility-starved traders with some short-term market swings. The so-called ‘triple-witching’ will see some $5.5 trillion worth of options tied to indexes, stocks, and exchange-traded funds fall off the board, according to an estimate from options platform SpotGamma. As the contracts disappear, investors will adjust their positions, adding a burst of volume capable of swinging individual holdings.
After the positions roll off, taking with it an estimated $5 billion in so-called “long gamma,” the market could be set for a touch of turbulence. Friday’s confluence of events as well as next Friday’s session, which will see the Russell indexes reshuffle, “will be explosive trading sessions as we have seen classic asset managers more actively take advantage of excess volumes and tactically trade positions around. - Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs.
While mom-and-pop investors may hardly notice the events, dealers certainly will. For them, large expiries mean tough choices: roll or offset positions, or close them out entirely. The twists and turns can spur added gyrations, particularly in the final hour of trading, known — fittingly — as the ‘triple-witching hour.
After the positions roll off, taking with it an estimated $5 billion in so-called “long gamma,” the market could be set for a touch of turbulence. Friday’s confluence of events as well as next Friday’s session, which will see the Russell indexes reshuffle, “will be explosive trading sessions as we have seen classic asset managers more actively take advantage of excess volumes and tactically trade positions around. - Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs.
While mom-and-pop investors may hardly notice the events, dealers certainly will. For them, large expiries mean tough choices: roll or offset positions, or close them out entirely. The twists and turns can spur added gyrations, particularly in the final hour of trading, known — fittingly — as the ‘triple-witching hour.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🔺WHY GOLD PRICE is rising? Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
Gold price is consolidating weekly gains near the highest level in nine days at $2,366, despite the US Dollar sticking to its recovery momentum alongside the US Treasury bond yields. Gold price looks forward to the preliminary business PMI data from both sides of the Atlantic for a fresh trading impetus.
Gold price remains on track to book the second weekly gain in a row, notwithstanding the late rebound in the US Dollar, as buyers continue to cheer increased interest rate cut bets by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
🔺US Data
Data released on Thursday pointed to a slowing US economy, as Initial Jobless Claims declined 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 238,000 for the week ended June 15, retreating from a ten-month high. Meanwhile, Housing Starts fell 5.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.277 million units last month, the lowest since June 2020, below the expected 1.37 million units.
🔺Rate Cuts pushing GOLD price higher
A rate reduction by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) for the second consecutive meeting on Thursday, following the rate cuts deployed by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) reinforced the narrative that the era of lower borrowing costs is already underway, helping keep Gold price afloat amid underlying geopolitical tensions.
Signs of cooling US labor and housing market keep the hopes for a September Fed rate cut alive and kicking, benefiting the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
🔺Geo-political tension driving GOLD Price higher
Nevertheless, the Greenback managed to turn higher against other major currencies and remained pressured against Gold amid a bout of risk aversion triggered by Russia. President Vladimir Putin said the country is considering introducing changes to its nuclear doctrine, including lowering the threshold for the use of such weapons in the West.
🟢 Additionally, Putin said that Russia could provide other countries with its weapons as the West does to Ukraine.
Gold price lures buyers as investors remain wary following the meeting between Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un earlier this week, as Middle East tensions continue. Gold is considered the ultimate traditional safe-haven asset.
🔺Rising Gold Demand
Strengthening Gold demand from India, the world’s second-largest Gold consumer, renders positive for the bright metal. “Gold buying exceeded expectations leading up to the Akshaya Tritiya festival. The festival took place on May 10 and is a traditional auspicious day for gold purchases.
🟢 According to the World Gold Council, buying was surprisingly strong given that prices were 23 percent higher than they were during the 2023 festival,” Mike Maharrey at Money Metals Exchange explained.
Today, S&P Global will release the preliminary estimates of the US June PMIs, which are expected to indicate a slight contraction in business growth. The economy, however, is expected to remain in expansion territory.
🆘 Key Economic Data today:
10:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 1.3% -2.0%
10:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (YoY) (May) -0.8% -3.0%
10:00 GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (May) -0.9% -2.7%
10:00 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 1.6% -2.3%
17:45 USD S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 51.0 51.3
17:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun) 54.5
17:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) 53.4 54.8
18:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (May) -1.9%
18:00 USD Existing Home Sales (May) 4.08M 4.14M
18:00 USD US Leading Index (MoM) (May) -0.4% -0.6%
19:00 USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
⏰ Crucial Price Zones Ahead:
🔻BZ $2342/2323/2303/2288
🔺SZ $2385/2407/2424/2442
Refer: PRSRD1
#XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu #PRDXB #Forex #Gold
Gold price is consolidating weekly gains near the highest level in nine days at $2,366, despite the US Dollar sticking to its recovery momentum alongside the US Treasury bond yields. Gold price looks forward to the preliminary business PMI data from both sides of the Atlantic for a fresh trading impetus.
Gold price remains on track to book the second weekly gain in a row, notwithstanding the late rebound in the US Dollar, as buyers continue to cheer increased interest rate cut bets by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
🔺US Data
Data released on Thursday pointed to a slowing US economy, as Initial Jobless Claims declined 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 238,000 for the week ended June 15, retreating from a ten-month high. Meanwhile, Housing Starts fell 5.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.277 million units last month, the lowest since June 2020, below the expected 1.37 million units.
🔺Rate Cuts pushing GOLD price higher
A rate reduction by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) for the second consecutive meeting on Thursday, following the rate cuts deployed by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) reinforced the narrative that the era of lower borrowing costs is already underway, helping keep Gold price afloat amid underlying geopolitical tensions.
Signs of cooling US labor and housing market keep the hopes for a September Fed rate cut alive and kicking, benefiting the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
🔺Geo-political tension driving GOLD Price higher
Nevertheless, the Greenback managed to turn higher against other major currencies and remained pressured against Gold amid a bout of risk aversion triggered by Russia. President Vladimir Putin said the country is considering introducing changes to its nuclear doctrine, including lowering the threshold for the use of such weapons in the West.
🟢 Additionally, Putin said that Russia could provide other countries with its weapons as the West does to Ukraine.
Gold price lures buyers as investors remain wary following the meeting between Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un earlier this week, as Middle East tensions continue. Gold is considered the ultimate traditional safe-haven asset.
🔺Rising Gold Demand
Strengthening Gold demand from India, the world’s second-largest Gold consumer, renders positive for the bright metal. “Gold buying exceeded expectations leading up to the Akshaya Tritiya festival. The festival took place on May 10 and is a traditional auspicious day for gold purchases.
🟢 According to the World Gold Council, buying was surprisingly strong given that prices were 23 percent higher than they were during the 2023 festival,” Mike Maharrey at Money Metals Exchange explained.
Today, S&P Global will release the preliminary estimates of the US June PMIs, which are expected to indicate a slight contraction in business growth. The economy, however, is expected to remain in expansion territory.
🆘 Key Economic Data today:
10:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 1.3% -2.0%
10:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (YoY) (May) -0.8% -3.0%
10:00 GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (May) -0.9% -2.7%
10:00 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 1.6% -2.3%
17:45 USD S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 51.0 51.3
17:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun) 54.5
17:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) 53.4 54.8
18:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (May) -1.9%
18:00 USD Existing Home Sales (May) 4.08M 4.14M
18:00 USD US Leading Index (MoM) (May) -0.4% -0.6%
19:00 USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
⏰ Crucial Price Zones Ahead:
🔻BZ $2342/2323/2303/2288
🔺SZ $2385/2407/2424/2442
Refer: PRSRD1
#XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu #PRDXB #Forex #Gold
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Join our official TELEGRAM Channel to receive one of the most accurate LIVE XAUUSD analysis.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Selling at and above $2359 R2 PRSRW1 and $2356 R5 PRSRD1 gave us neat exit.
CMP $2356.60
All trades closed.
KINDLY close all SHORT positions. XAUUSD.
#XAUUSD #GOLD #PiyushRatnu
CMP $2356.60
All trades closed.
KINDLY close all SHORT positions. XAUUSD.
#XAUUSD #GOLD #PiyushRatnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Gold price is finding fresh demand early Thursday, having witnessed a muted Wednesday because of the Juneteenth holiday in the United States (US).
The US Dollar (USD) has paused its downside momentum, helped by a risk-averse market environment and a modest upswing in the US Treasury bond yields, underpinning the sentiment around the USD-denominated Gold price.
Investors seem to have turned cautious in the Asian trading hours after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left the key Loan Prime Rates unchanged, raising concerns over a lack of policy support to boost economic growth.
The sentiment around the Fed rate-cut expectations will continue to dominate the US Dollar price action, eventually influencing the latest uptick in Gold price. Should risk aversion intensify in the upcoming sessions, investors will likely flock to the safe-haven US Dollar, limiting the Gold price upside.
However, if the US Jobless Claims and housing data disappoint and add to the renewed dovish Fed bets, fuelled by weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data, the US Dollar could see a fresh selling interest, providing extra legs to the Gold price advance.
Geo-political tension might trigger +rally in XAUUSD.
ISRAEL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-18/netanyahu-tells-us-give-us-the-tools-we-ll-finish-the-job?srnd=homepage-middle-east
RUSSIA: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-20/putin-s-hybrid-war-opens-second-front-on-russia-s-border-with-nato?srnd=homepage-middle-east
IRAN: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240619-iran-warns-hezbollah-about-israels-attempt-to-assassinate-nasrallah/
LEBANON: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/19/israel-ready-for-all-out-war-in-lebanon
? Crucial Price Zones:
🔻SZ $2385/2407/2424/2442/2469
🔺BZ $$2307/2288/2266/2244/2222
#PiyushRatnu #XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #PRDXB
The US Dollar (USD) has paused its downside momentum, helped by a risk-averse market environment and a modest upswing in the US Treasury bond yields, underpinning the sentiment around the USD-denominated Gold price.
Investors seem to have turned cautious in the Asian trading hours after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left the key Loan Prime Rates unchanged, raising concerns over a lack of policy support to boost economic growth.
The sentiment around the Fed rate-cut expectations will continue to dominate the US Dollar price action, eventually influencing the latest uptick in Gold price. Should risk aversion intensify in the upcoming sessions, investors will likely flock to the safe-haven US Dollar, limiting the Gold price upside.
However, if the US Jobless Claims and housing data disappoint and add to the renewed dovish Fed bets, fuelled by weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data, the US Dollar could see a fresh selling interest, providing extra legs to the Gold price advance.
Geo-political tension might trigger +rally in XAUUSD.
ISRAEL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-18/netanyahu-tells-us-give-us-the-tools-we-ll-finish-the-job?srnd=homepage-middle-east
RUSSIA: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-20/putin-s-hybrid-war-opens-second-front-on-russia-s-border-with-nato?srnd=homepage-middle-east
IRAN: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240619-iran-warns-hezbollah-about-israels-attempt-to-assassinate-nasrallah/
LEBANON: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/19/israel-ready-for-all-out-war-in-lebanon
? Crucial Price Zones:
🔻SZ $2385/2407/2424/2442/2469
🔺BZ $$2307/2288/2266/2244/2222
#PiyushRatnu #XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #PRDXB
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Key Economic Data today:
16:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 0.2% 0.2%
16:30 USD Retail Control (MoM) (May) -0.3%
16:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.0%
Gold price has been tracking the moves in the US Treasury bond yields so far this week, pausing its previous decline amid a modest weakness in the US Treasury bond yields. With an extension of the Wall Street risk rally into Asia, however, it remains to be seen if Gold price remains supported in the lead-up to the US economic docket.
Additionally, if the US Dollar rebound gains traction on robust Retail Sales data or hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers, Gold price could come under renewed selling pressure. US Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.2% MoM in May after reporting no growth in April. The core Retail Sales are likely to increase by 0.2% in May, at the same pace seen in April.
Meanwhile, the Fed speakers include Barkin, Kugler, Logan, Musalem and Goolsbee. Any hints from the officials warranting caution on inflation or pushing back against rate cuts will inject a fresh bout of strength into the US Dollar at the expense of Gold price.
Crucial Price Zones:
🔻BZ $2300/2288/2266
🔺SZ $2342/2369/2385
Key Economic Data today:
16:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 0.2% 0.2%
16:30 USD Retail Control (MoM) (May) -0.3%
16:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.0%
Gold price has been tracking the moves in the US Treasury bond yields so far this week, pausing its previous decline amid a modest weakness in the US Treasury bond yields. With an extension of the Wall Street risk rally into Asia, however, it remains to be seen if Gold price remains supported in the lead-up to the US economic docket.
Additionally, if the US Dollar rebound gains traction on robust Retail Sales data or hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers, Gold price could come under renewed selling pressure. US Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.2% MoM in May after reporting no growth in April. The core Retail Sales are likely to increase by 0.2% in May, at the same pace seen in April.
Meanwhile, the Fed speakers include Barkin, Kugler, Logan, Musalem and Goolsbee. Any hints from the officials warranting caution on inflation or pushing back against rate cuts will inject a fresh bout of strength into the US Dollar at the expense of Gold price.
Crucial Price Zones:
🔻BZ $2300/2288/2266
🔺SZ $2342/2369/2385
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Possible impact of BOND crash = uncertainty and panic, resulting in XAUUSD + | CMP $2320
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Gold price is reversing a part of Friday’s upswing, having faced rejection once again above the $2,330 level early Monday. Gold price fails to benefit from a pause in the US Dollar (USD) upsurge, as the US Treasury bond yields recover after last week’s downward spiral.
On Friday, Gold price staged a rebound, courtesy of the continued decline in the US yields and mounting political uncertainty in the Euro area, as France is heading closer to the snap elections due on June 30. Gold traders overlooked the increase in the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations data for June amid mixed messages from the Fed policymakers.
Hawkish comments from Fed policymaker Kashkari combined with unimpressive Chinese economic data contributes to the renewed downside in Gold price. 🔻 China’s House Price Index declined 3.9% in May while Industrial Production fell more than expected. China’s Retail Sales rose 3.7% YoY in the same period, compared to a 3.0% increase expected.
Later in the day, traders will keep an eye on the Euro area political developments, which could have a significant impact on risk sentiment and the US Dollar price action, eventually influencing the USD-denominated Gold price moves. Speeches by Fed officials will be also closely scrutinized to gauge the timing of te interest rate cut.
🟢 Markets are currently pricing in about 62% odds of a rate cut by the Fed in September while that for December is seen at 27%.
🟢 Key Economic Events today:
12:00 EUR ECB's Lane Speaks
13:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
13:00 EUR Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q1) 3.10%
14:00 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
15:30 EUR ECB's De Guindos Speaks
16:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun) -12.50 -15.60
20:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
21:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
🍎 Crucial Price Zones: XAUUSD:
🔻BZ $2300/2288
🔺SZ $2342/2350
🟢 Refer Algo: PRSRL set D1
On Friday, Gold price staged a rebound, courtesy of the continued decline in the US yields and mounting political uncertainty in the Euro area, as France is heading closer to the snap elections due on June 30. Gold traders overlooked the increase in the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations data for June amid mixed messages from the Fed policymakers.
Hawkish comments from Fed policymaker Kashkari combined with unimpressive Chinese economic data contributes to the renewed downside in Gold price. 🔻 China’s House Price Index declined 3.9% in May while Industrial Production fell more than expected. China’s Retail Sales rose 3.7% YoY in the same period, compared to a 3.0% increase expected.
Later in the day, traders will keep an eye on the Euro area political developments, which could have a significant impact on risk sentiment and the US Dollar price action, eventually influencing the USD-denominated Gold price moves. Speeches by Fed officials will be also closely scrutinized to gauge the timing of te interest rate cut.
🟢 Markets are currently pricing in about 62% odds of a rate cut by the Fed in September while that for December is seen at 27%.
🟢 Key Economic Events today:
12:00 EUR ECB's Lane Speaks
13:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
13:00 EUR Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q1) 3.10%
14:00 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
15:30 EUR ECB's De Guindos Speaks
16:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun) -12.50 -15.60
20:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
21:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
🍎 Crucial Price Zones: XAUUSD:
🔻BZ $2300/2288
🔺SZ $2342/2350
🟢 Refer Algo: PRSRL set D1
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD #Gold #PiyushRatnu
The initial market reaction to the softer US consumer inflation data on Wednesday faded rather quickly after the Federal Reserve said that it sees only one rate cut this year, which, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding Gold price.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) gained positive traction for the third successive day on Wednesday and touched a fresh weekly peak, around the $2,341-2,342 area in reaction to softer US consumer inflation figures. The momentum, however, ran out of steam in the vicinity of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support-turned-resistance after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish surprise. In fact, policymakers now see just one rate cut in 2024 as compared to three projected in March, which, in turn, is seen exerting some follow-through pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal during the Asian session on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the shift in the Fed's projections, which led to a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, assists the US Dollar (USD) to build on the overnight bounce from a multi-day low and further undermines the Gold price. That said, geopolitical tension in the Middle East and political uncertainty in Europe should lend some support to the XAU/USD. Nevertheless, the broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside. Traders now look to Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data.
The initial market reaction to the softer US consumer inflation data on Wednesday faded rather quickly after the Federal Reserve said that it sees only one rate cut this year, which, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding Gold price.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) gained positive traction for the third successive day on Wednesday and touched a fresh weekly peak, around the $2,341-2,342 area in reaction to softer US consumer inflation figures. The momentum, however, ran out of steam in the vicinity of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support-turned-resistance after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish surprise. In fact, policymakers now see just one rate cut in 2024 as compared to three projected in March, which, in turn, is seen exerting some follow-through pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal during the Asian session on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the shift in the Fed's projections, which led to a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, assists the US Dollar (USD) to build on the overnight bounce from a multi-day low and further undermines the Gold price. That said, geopolitical tension in the Middle East and political uncertainty in Europe should lend some support to the XAU/USD. Nevertheless, the broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside. Traders now look to Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD #FOMC #Latest
USDJPY marching towards 10-11 June highs
XAUUSD lows on 10-11 June: $2288 zone
USDJPY marching towards 10-11 June highs
XAUUSD lows on 10-11 June: $2288 zone
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD #Trading
Key Economic Data today:
16:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,800K 1,792K
16:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.5%
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 225K 229K
16:30 USD PPI (MoM) (May) 0.1% 0.5%
Key Economic Data today:
16:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,800K 1,792K
16:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.5%
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 225K 229K
16:30 USD PPI (MoM) (May) 0.1% 0.5%
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Federal Reserve officials’ collective forecast for interest rates now implies only one quarter-point cut by the end of 2024.
That is a significant shift. It is two fewer reductions than the median estimate in the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections showed in March. Before the SEP was made public on Wednesday, interest-rate futures markets were pricing in the greatest probability of two cuts this year from the current target range of 5.25% to 5.5% for the federal-funds rate.
The SEP, known informally as the “dot plot,” is a collection of forecasts for the economy, inflation, the labor market, and interest rates offered by the seven Fed governors and 12 regional Fed presidents. It isn’t a formal plan, by any means, but rather an anonymous snapshot of top officials’ current thinking.
In aggregate, officials significantly dialed back their forecasts for rate cuts this year. The March SEP had 10 of 19 dots implying at least three cuts this year. In Wednesday’s dot plot, eight officials penciled in two cuts, seven had one cut, and four predicted no change in the fed-funds rate this year.
The median estimates for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 also moved higher by a quarter of a percentage point, to 4% to 4.25%, implying a cumulative percentage-point of cuts next year. For the end of 2026, the median dot on Wednesday showed an unchanged target range of 3% to 3.25%.
Officials’ median longer-run estimate of the fed-funds rate moved up by a quarter of a point for the second straight month, to 2.75% to 3.0%. That figure is seen as officials’ collective estimate of the so-called neutral rate of interest—the level that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.
That is a significant shift. It is two fewer reductions than the median estimate in the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections showed in March. Before the SEP was made public on Wednesday, interest-rate futures markets were pricing in the greatest probability of two cuts this year from the current target range of 5.25% to 5.5% for the federal-funds rate.
The SEP, known informally as the “dot plot,” is a collection of forecasts for the economy, inflation, the labor market, and interest rates offered by the seven Fed governors and 12 regional Fed presidents. It isn’t a formal plan, by any means, but rather an anonymous snapshot of top officials’ current thinking.
In aggregate, officials significantly dialed back their forecasts for rate cuts this year. The March SEP had 10 of 19 dots implying at least three cuts this year. In Wednesday’s dot plot, eight officials penciled in two cuts, seven had one cut, and four predicted no change in the fed-funds rate this year.
The median estimates for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 also moved higher by a quarter of a percentage point, to 4% to 4.25%, implying a cumulative percentage-point of cuts next year. For the end of 2026, the median dot on Wednesday showed an unchanged target range of 3% to 3.25%.
Officials’ median longer-run estimate of the fed-funds rate moved up by a quarter of a point for the second straight month, to 2.75% to 3.0%. That figure is seen as officials’ collective estimate of the so-called neutral rate of interest—the level that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD #FOMC #Forex #Powell
Power of disinflation has been unwinding pandemic shocks - POWELL
FAQ: What is disinflation?
Disinflation is a temporary slowing of the pace of price inflation. The term is used to describe occasions when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term. Unlike inflation and deflation, which refer to the direction of prices, disinflation refers to the rate of change in the rate of inflation.
Power of disinflation has been unwinding pandemic shocks - POWELL
FAQ: What is disinflation?
Disinflation is a temporary slowing of the pace of price inflation. The term is used to describe occasions when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term. Unlike inflation and deflation, which refer to the direction of prices, disinflation refers to the rate of change in the rate of inflation.