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Piyush Ratnu is an independent forex market analyst & trader with core expertise in XAUUSD/Spot Gold.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD: $2244-2266-2288 targets achieved.
RT $2222 or EXT $2323 next?
Piyush Ratnu Financial Market Research: Watch Accuracy Review:
https://youtu.be/QeMovc3n3xs
RT $2222 or EXT $2323 next?
Piyush Ratnu Financial Market Research: Watch Accuracy Review:
https://youtu.be/QeMovc3n3xs
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD #Gold price prints a fresh all-time high above $2,274
Gold price (XAU/USD) refreshes all-time highs above $2,274 in Tuesday’s early New York session as the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported steady JOLTS Job Openings for February.
US employers posted fresh 8.756 million job openings, similar to expectations of 8.74 million and the prior reading of 8.748 million in January, revised lower from 8.748 million. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell slightly after refreshing four-month highs of 105.00 to 104.70.
Gold seems not ready to surrender gains on expectations that February’s core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) figure, the lowest in two years, will keep the Fed on track to cut interest rates three times this year.
Going forward, the Gold price could face pressure to maintain higher levels as US #bond yields have extended their upside, with 10-year US Treasury yields up to 4.34%. The rise in yields came as investors scaled back their expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pivot to rate cuts in #June. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding investments in non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
This week, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (#NFP) for #March, which will be published on Friday. The labor market data could give clues about when the #Fed could start reducing interest rates.
🟢Crucial Zones ahead:
C: $2244/2222
R: $2300/2323
🔺CMP XAUUSD $2274 USDJPY $151.525
#PiyushRatnu #PRDXB #Forex
Gold price (XAU/USD) refreshes all-time highs above $2,274 in Tuesday’s early New York session as the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported steady JOLTS Job Openings for February.
US employers posted fresh 8.756 million job openings, similar to expectations of 8.74 million and the prior reading of 8.748 million in January, revised lower from 8.748 million. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell slightly after refreshing four-month highs of 105.00 to 104.70.
Gold seems not ready to surrender gains on expectations that February’s core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) figure, the lowest in two years, will keep the Fed on track to cut interest rates three times this year.
Going forward, the Gold price could face pressure to maintain higher levels as US #bond yields have extended their upside, with 10-year US Treasury yields up to 4.34%. The rise in yields came as investors scaled back their expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pivot to rate cuts in #June. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding investments in non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
This week, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (#NFP) for #March, which will be published on Friday. The labor market data could give clues about when the #Fed could start reducing interest rates.
🟢Crucial Zones ahead:
C: $2244/2222
R: $2300/2323
🔺CMP XAUUSD $2274 USDJPY $151.525
#PiyushRatnu #PRDXB #Forex
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
01.04.2024 | XAUUSD : Daily Price Projection | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD: H1A236 achieved | CMP $2240
Selling at and above $2244 gave us neat results.
Selling at and above $2244 gave us neat results.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
28.03.2024 | XAUUSD : Daily Price Projection | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD: $2244-2266 targets achieved, $2222 or $2323 next?
Gold price is consolidating the latest uptick to a new all-time high of $2,260, kicking off Easter Monday and the second quarter of 2024 on a positive note. Extended Easter holiday-induced thin liquidity conditions aid the Gold price uptrend amid a broadly subdued US Dollar.
A June Fed policy pivot bets underpin Gold price
The US Dollar remains defensive, as markets set off the new quarter with optimism, especially after China’s Manufacturing and Services PMI data surpassed expectations in March. On Sunday, China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) jumped to 50.8 in March, compared with the 49.1 contraction reported in February and above the estimates of a 49.9 figure. The Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in the same period vs. February’s 51.4. Meanwhile, China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged higher to 51.1 in March on Monday, beating estimates of 51.0.
Additionally, increased bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin lowering interest rates in June, following Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, exert downside pressure on the US Dollar, keeping Gold price underpinned.
Inflation in the US, as measured by the change in Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, increased slightly to 2.5% on a yearly basis in February, data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed Friday. The reading met the consensus forecast and followed January’s 2.4% increase. The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at an annual pace of 2.8%, in line with the market expectations but slowing from a 2.9% increase reported previously.
Markets are currently pricing a 68% probability of a June Fed rate cut, up from 63% seen before the PCE data release. Heightened expectations of a June Fed rate cut come even after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that “the economy is strong” and there is “no hurry to cut rates.” Powell participated in a discussion at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, in San Francisco, on Friday.
Looking ahead, the US Nonfarm Payrolls data, due on Friday, will be critical to sealing in a June Fed rate cut, having a significant impact on the value of the US Dollar and on the Gold price direction. In the meantime, the return of full markets in the US after the long Easter weekend break could trigger a bout of profit-taking in Gold price, as markets resort to position readjustment, in anticipation of the US employment data, trickling in from Tuesday.
Later on Monday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be also closely scrutinized for fresh hints on the strength of the US economy, influencing the market’s pricing of the Fed rate cut expectations and, in turn, the non-interest-beating Gold price.
Gold price is consolidating the latest uptick to a new all-time high of $2,260, kicking off Easter Monday and the second quarter of 2024 on a positive note. Extended Easter holiday-induced thin liquidity conditions aid the Gold price uptrend amid a broadly subdued US Dollar.
A June Fed policy pivot bets underpin Gold price
The US Dollar remains defensive, as markets set off the new quarter with optimism, especially after China’s Manufacturing and Services PMI data surpassed expectations in March. On Sunday, China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) jumped to 50.8 in March, compared with the 49.1 contraction reported in February and above the estimates of a 49.9 figure. The Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in the same period vs. February’s 51.4. Meanwhile, China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged higher to 51.1 in March on Monday, beating estimates of 51.0.
Additionally, increased bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin lowering interest rates in June, following Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, exert downside pressure on the US Dollar, keeping Gold price underpinned.
Inflation in the US, as measured by the change in Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, increased slightly to 2.5% on a yearly basis in February, data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed Friday. The reading met the consensus forecast and followed January’s 2.4% increase. The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at an annual pace of 2.8%, in line with the market expectations but slowing from a 2.9% increase reported previously.
Markets are currently pricing a 68% probability of a June Fed rate cut, up from 63% seen before the PCE data release. Heightened expectations of a June Fed rate cut come even after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that “the economy is strong” and there is “no hurry to cut rates.” Powell participated in a discussion at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, in San Francisco, on Friday.
Looking ahead, the US Nonfarm Payrolls data, due on Friday, will be critical to sealing in a June Fed rate cut, having a significant impact on the value of the US Dollar and on the Gold price direction. In the meantime, the return of full markets in the US after the long Easter weekend break could trigger a bout of profit-taking in Gold price, as markets resort to position readjustment, in anticipation of the US employment data, trickling in from Tuesday.
Later on Monday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be also closely scrutinized for fresh hints on the strength of the US economy, influencing the market’s pricing of the Fed rate cut expectations and, in turn, the non-interest-beating Gold price.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Gold price soars to all-time high of $2,225, defying rising Treasury yields and a robust US Dollar.
Gold price rallied during the North American session on Thursday and hit a new all-time high of $2,225 in the mid-North American session. Precious metal prices are trending higher even though US Treasury yields are advancing, underpinning the Greenback. Hawkish comments by a Federal Reserve (Fed) policymaker and solid economic data from the United States (US) keep the US Dollar and Gold prices bid. XAU/USD trades at $2,221 and gains more than 1.20%.
Christopher Waller, a Fed Governor, noted the US central bank is in no rush to cut rates, even though he expects the beginning of the easing cycle. However, he needs to see a couple of months’ evidence that inflation is curbing toward the Fed’s 2% goal.
Data-wise, the US economy grew faster than expected. Meanwhile, according to the Initial Jobless Claims (IJC) report, the jobs market remains tight. Further data showed that consumer sentiment improved, according to a poll from the University of Michigan, while Pending Home Sales in February ticked higher than in January.
Ahead in the week, Gold traders are eyeing the release of the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index for the month of February.
Money market traders predict a 63% chance that the Fed will slash rates by a quarter of a percentage point in June, lower than Wednesday's 70% odds.
The US GDP rose by 3.4%, exceeding the preliminary reading of 3.2%, an indication of a strong economy. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for Q4 2023 hit the Fed’s target of 2% QoQ.
Why is GOLD price rising?
Gold prices seem to be rallying based on speculation of a lower February inflation report in the US. The Core PCE is expected to slow from 0.4% to 0.3% MoM, while the headline PCE is expected to edge higher from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM.
Gold price soars to all-time high of $2,225, defying rising Treasury yields and a robust US Dollar.
Gold price rallied during the North American session on Thursday and hit a new all-time high of $2,225 in the mid-North American session. Precious metal prices are trending higher even though US Treasury yields are advancing, underpinning the Greenback. Hawkish comments by a Federal Reserve (Fed) policymaker and solid economic data from the United States (US) keep the US Dollar and Gold prices bid. XAU/USD trades at $2,221 and gains more than 1.20%.
Christopher Waller, a Fed Governor, noted the US central bank is in no rush to cut rates, even though he expects the beginning of the easing cycle. However, he needs to see a couple of months’ evidence that inflation is curbing toward the Fed’s 2% goal.
Data-wise, the US economy grew faster than expected. Meanwhile, according to the Initial Jobless Claims (IJC) report, the jobs market remains tight. Further data showed that consumer sentiment improved, according to a poll from the University of Michigan, while Pending Home Sales in February ticked higher than in January.
Ahead in the week, Gold traders are eyeing the release of the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index for the month of February.
Money market traders predict a 63% chance that the Fed will slash rates by a quarter of a percentage point in June, lower than Wednesday's 70% odds.
The US GDP rose by 3.4%, exceeding the preliminary reading of 3.2%, an indication of a strong economy. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for Q4 2023 hit the Fed’s target of 2% QoQ.
Why is GOLD price rising?
Gold prices seem to be rallying based on speculation of a lower February inflation report in the US. The Core PCE is expected to slow from 0.4% to 0.3% MoM, while the headline PCE is expected to edge higher from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
27.03.2024 | XAUUSD : Daily Price Projection | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
26.03.2024 | XAUUSD : Daily Price Projection | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
‘We must enter Rafah now’: Israeli minister
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has said that the army should enter Rafah in southern Gaza even without the US support.
“We must enter Rafah now,” he said, in remarks quoted by the Israeli Army Radio.
When he was reportedly asked if the action should be taken even if Washington does not back it, he said: “Clearly, I remind you that we went into several wars without the support of the Americans and the whole world.”
Defying international calls to halt its military operation, Israel has pledged to push into Rafah on the southern tip of Gaza, where more than half of the enclave’s 2.3 million residents have been sheltering after fleeing the Israeli assault farther north.
⚠️ This might push up GOLD to $2323 territory.
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has said that the army should enter Rafah in southern Gaza even without the US support.
“We must enter Rafah now,” he said, in remarks quoted by the Israeli Army Radio.
When he was reportedly asked if the action should be taken even if Washington does not back it, he said: “Clearly, I remind you that we went into several wars without the support of the Americans and the whole world.”
Defying international calls to halt its military operation, Israel has pledged to push into Rafah on the southern tip of Gaza, where more than half of the enclave’s 2.3 million residents have been sheltering after fleeing the Israeli assault farther north.
⚠️ This might push up GOLD to $2323 territory.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
22.03.2024 | XAUUSD : Daily Price Projection | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Piyush Ratnu Financial Market Research: Accuracy Check and Analysis Review
$2222 target price achieved, as projected before FOMC, achieved post FOMC.
#xauusd #piyushratnu #prgoldanalysis #gold #analysis #forex
Watch detailed summary at: https://youtu.be/HTRlSl1TW88
$2222 target price achieved, as projected before FOMC, achieved post FOMC.
#xauusd #piyushratnu #prgoldanalysis #gold #analysis #forex
Watch detailed summary at: https://youtu.be/HTRlSl1TW88
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
21.03.2024 | XAUUSD : Daily Price Projection | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
#forextrading #XAUUSD #SpotGold #PiyushRatnu #analysis #ForexTraining #forexcourse
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
#forextrading #XAUUSD #SpotGold #PiyushRatnu #analysis #ForexTraining #forexcourse
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🍎 Short positions in XAUUSD at and above $2194 and 2204 gave us good returns: CMP $2180
Kindly exit all SHORT TRADES.
Active Trades: 0
Kindly exit all SHORT TRADES.
Active Trades: 0
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
20.03.2024 | XAUUSD : Daily Price Projection | XAUUSD Analysis | Daily Price Projection | Spot Gold Analysis by Piyush Ratnu
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
#forextrading #XAUUSD #SpotGold #PiyushRatnu #analysis #ForexTraining #forexcourse
Subscribe to our Telegram channel to receive live analysis without delay
#forextrading #XAUUSD #SpotGold #PiyushRatnu #analysis #ForexTraining #forexcourse
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD breaches the $2222 mark!
Gold price outshines for the second straight day on Thursday, resuming its record-setting rally, inspired by the Fed’s dovish outlook on interest rates.
The US Dollar tumbled alongside the US Treasury bond yields after the Fed's economic projections, the so-called Dot Plot chart, still predicted three rate cuts this year as seen in December. Markets had begun pricing two Fed rate cuts this year after two consecutive months of higher inflation readings.
The median Fed dot plot for 2024 was unchanged despite a 0.2% increase in the median 2024 Core PCE inflation. This was perceived as dovish by markets, throwing the Greenback under the bus while driving Gold price to a new all-time high beyond the $2,200 threshold.
The Fed kept the key rates unchanged between the 5.25% to 5.50% target range on Wednesday, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing that recent high inflation readings had not changed the underlying "story" of slowly easing price pressures in the United States (US).
Markets are now wagering a 75% probability that the Fed will begin easing in June, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
🆘 Looking ahead, the S&P Global US preliminary PMIs and Fed speak will remain in focus for a fresh boost to Gold price.
Gold price outshines for the second straight day on Thursday, resuming its record-setting rally, inspired by the Fed’s dovish outlook on interest rates.
The US Dollar tumbled alongside the US Treasury bond yields after the Fed's economic projections, the so-called Dot Plot chart, still predicted three rate cuts this year as seen in December. Markets had begun pricing two Fed rate cuts this year after two consecutive months of higher inflation readings.
The median Fed dot plot for 2024 was unchanged despite a 0.2% increase in the median 2024 Core PCE inflation. This was perceived as dovish by markets, throwing the Greenback under the bus while driving Gold price to a new all-time high beyond the $2,200 threshold.
The Fed kept the key rates unchanged between the 5.25% to 5.50% target range on Wednesday, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing that recent high inflation readings had not changed the underlying "story" of slowly easing price pressures in the United States (US).
Markets are now wagering a 75% probability that the Fed will begin easing in June, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
🆘 Looking ahead, the S&P Global US preliminary PMIs and Fed speak will remain in focus for a fresh boost to Gold price.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Read detailed analysis here: as published on 20.03.2024:
https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/comments/1bj6eqk/xauusd_2222_or_2121_today_22442048_in_next_15/
#XAUUSD #GOLD #forextrading #forexeducation #piyushratnu
https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/comments/1bj6eqk/xauusd_2222_or_2121_today_22442048_in_next_15/
#XAUUSD #GOLD #forextrading #forexeducation #piyushratnu
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Federal Reserve holds rates steady once more in March, sticks with call for 3 rate cuts
Central bank policymakers have decided to hold interest rates at their current target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The move was widely expected by the markets.
The Fed also stuck with its earlier forecast for three rate cuts before the year is out, based on its dot plot.
Following its two-day policy meeting, the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said it will keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Along with the decision, Fed officials penciled in three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of 2024, which would be the first reductions since the early days of the Covid pandemic in March 2020.
The current federal funds rate level is the highest in more than 23 years. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many forms of consumer debt.
Raises GDP forecast
Officials sharply accelerated their projections for GDP growth this year and now see the economy running at a 2.1% annualized rate, up from the 1.4% estimate in December. The unemployment rate forecast moved slightly lower from the previous estimate to 4%, while the projection for core inflation as measured by personal consumption expenditures rose to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from before but slightly below the most recent level of 2.8%. The unemployment rate for February was 3.9%.
The outlook for GDP also rose incrementally for the next two years. Core PCE inflation is expected to get back to target by 2026, same as in December.
The FOMC’s post-meeting statement was almost identical to the one delivered at its last meeting in January save for an upgrade on its job growth assessment to “strong” from the January characterization that gains had “moderated.” The decision to stand pat on rates was approved unanimously.
Higher than expected inflation data to start 2024 triggered caution from top Fed officials, and the January FOMC meeting concluded with the central bank saying it needed more evidence that prices were decelerating before it would gain “greater confidence” on inflation and start cutting.
Statements from Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers since then added to the sentiment of a patient, data-driven approach, and markets have had to reprice. Powell and his cohorts have indicated that with the economy still growing at a healthy pace and unemployment below 4%, they can take a more measured approach when loosening monetary policy.
In a process that began in June 2022, the central bank is allowing up to $60 billion a month in maturing proceeds from Treasurys plus up to $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to roll off each month rather than be reinvested. The process is often referred to as “quantitative tightening” and has resulted in about a $1.4 trillion drawdown in the Fed’s holdings.
🟢 However, there was no immediate information provided about changes in QT, though Powell has indicated several times that the matter was to be discussed at this meeting. More insight could be forthcoming from Powell’s post-meeting news conference and the release of meeting minutes in three weeks.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady once more in March, sticks with call for 3 rate cuts
Central bank policymakers have decided to hold interest rates at their current target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The move was widely expected by the markets.
The Fed also stuck with its earlier forecast for three rate cuts before the year is out, based on its dot plot.
Following its two-day policy meeting, the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said it will keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Along with the decision, Fed officials penciled in three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of 2024, which would be the first reductions since the early days of the Covid pandemic in March 2020.
The current federal funds rate level is the highest in more than 23 years. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many forms of consumer debt.
Raises GDP forecast
Officials sharply accelerated their projections for GDP growth this year and now see the economy running at a 2.1% annualized rate, up from the 1.4% estimate in December. The unemployment rate forecast moved slightly lower from the previous estimate to 4%, while the projection for core inflation as measured by personal consumption expenditures rose to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from before but slightly below the most recent level of 2.8%. The unemployment rate for February was 3.9%.
The outlook for GDP also rose incrementally for the next two years. Core PCE inflation is expected to get back to target by 2026, same as in December.
The FOMC’s post-meeting statement was almost identical to the one delivered at its last meeting in January save for an upgrade on its job growth assessment to “strong” from the January characterization that gains had “moderated.” The decision to stand pat on rates was approved unanimously.
Higher than expected inflation data to start 2024 triggered caution from top Fed officials, and the January FOMC meeting concluded with the central bank saying it needed more evidence that prices were decelerating before it would gain “greater confidence” on inflation and start cutting.
Statements from Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers since then added to the sentiment of a patient, data-driven approach, and markets have had to reprice. Powell and his cohorts have indicated that with the economy still growing at a healthy pace and unemployment below 4%, they can take a more measured approach when loosening monetary policy.
In a process that began in June 2022, the central bank is allowing up to $60 billion a month in maturing proceeds from Treasurys plus up to $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to roll off each month rather than be reinvested. The process is often referred to as “quantitative tightening” and has resulted in about a $1.4 trillion drawdown in the Fed’s holdings.
🟢 However, there was no immediate information provided about changes in QT, though Powell has indicated several times that the matter was to be discussed at this meeting. More insight could be forthcoming from Powell’s post-meeting news conference and the release of meeting minutes in three weeks.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
💡💡💡
BTCUSD back to $62,000 (second time) crashing from $72,000 price zone: another 10% ROI achieved in last 20 days.
🟢 I had projected short positions above $63,333 with PG 5 on 29.02.2024. Those who are BULLISH at BTCUSD highs - stay ALERT.
BTCUSD back to $62,000 (second time) crashing from $72,000 price zone: another 10% ROI achieved in last 20 days.
🟢 I had projected short positions above $63,333 with PG 5 on 29.02.2024. Those who are BULLISH at BTCUSD highs - stay ALERT.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
TRADERS GEAR UP FOR FED RATE DECISION!
Gold trimmed Monday’s gains amid resurgent US Dollar demand, with XAU/USD trading around $2,154 in the mid-American session. The Greenback found strength following central banks’ mostly dovish announcements, as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) unveiled their monetary policy decisions.
The RBA left rates unchanged and maintained its cautious outlook on economic progress and easing inflation. The BoJ, on the other hand, delivered as expected, lifting rates for the first time in 17 years and dropping the Yield Curve Control (YCC) program. However, the BoJ still doubted it could maintain healthy inflation and pledged to continue buying bonds.
It’s a calm before the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision storm, as Gold traders turn on the sidelines, refraining from placing any fresh positional bets on the bright metal. Markets are turning caution, as tensions mount in the run-up to the Fed showdown, with markets eagerly awaiting fresh hints on the timing and scope of the Fed’s first interest cut this year.
Volatility dropped in the US session as investors gear up for the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcement. The United States (US) central bank will unveil its decision on Wednesday alongside fresh economic projections. Financial markets head into the event with high levels of caution, as recent data suggest US policymakers may hold rates higher for longer.
Markets are currently pricing in just about 60% of a June Fed rate cut. While the December Fed’s Dot Plot chart projects three rate cuts, it remains to be seen what the central bank’s outlook on interest rate cuts offers. Also, of note, will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the post-policy meeting press conference for fresh impact on the value of the US Dollar and the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
On Tuesday, Gold price snapped its early rebound and fell as low as $2,148 before recovering losses to settle near $2,158. The downtick in the Gold price was sponsored by a renewed US Dollar buying interest.
The USD/JPY pair rallied hard, following the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), driving the US Dollar higher while weighing on the US Dollar. However, some modest weakness in the US Treasury bond yields and a risk-on rally on Wall Street indices capped the US Dollar upside, allowing Gold price to stage a decent comeback.
🟢 Crucial Price Zones for next 15 trading days:
BS: C: $2121/2100/2085/2048
SS: R: $2196/2200/2233/2266
🟢 I expect A pattern:
I will SELL HIGHS to pull NAP above $2130/2145 in case of higher price rallies. PG $30 | Exit NAP
🆘Current DD: 2% | Margin available: 58,000%
Current NAP: $2141 | Expected Exit: $2130/2121
🟢 D1 PRSRZ | Price Zones | XAUUSD
📌 PPZ R1 2160 S1 2154
R2 2170
R3 2179
R4 2185
R5 2194
S2 2144
S3 2135
S4 2129
S5 2118
🟢 W1 PRSRZ | Price Zones
📌 PPZ R1 2163 S1 2148
R2 2186
R3 2210
R4 2225
R5 2248
S2 2124
S3 2101
S4 2086
S5 2062
🔘 GFA Parameters:
SMA
XAUUSD at H4S5
H4S1 $2121 H4S2 $2075 crucial stops
🍎A Patterns:
H1A0.0 2144
H4A50 2121
H4A618 2101
H4A100 2042
🍎 V patterns:
H1V100 2170
H4V0.0 2196
🔘 Co-relations:
📌 USDJPY: CMP 151.555: at HIGHS of
🔺16.10.2022: Price: 151.800
🔺12.11.2023: Price: 151.800
📌 Price of XAUUSD CMP: $2157, past price track record:
🔻 16.10.2022: Price: $1626
🔻 12.11.2023: Price: $1936
🟢 Technical Co-relations:
🔺USD S 62
🔻JPY S 11
🔺AUD S 60
🔺DXY 103.500 (RT+)
🔺US10YT 4.293 RT+)
US F RT+ H1S5
Gold trimmed Monday’s gains amid resurgent US Dollar demand, with XAU/USD trading around $2,154 in the mid-American session. The Greenback found strength following central banks’ mostly dovish announcements, as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) unveiled their monetary policy decisions.
The RBA left rates unchanged and maintained its cautious outlook on economic progress and easing inflation. The BoJ, on the other hand, delivered as expected, lifting rates for the first time in 17 years and dropping the Yield Curve Control (YCC) program. However, the BoJ still doubted it could maintain healthy inflation and pledged to continue buying bonds.
It’s a calm before the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision storm, as Gold traders turn on the sidelines, refraining from placing any fresh positional bets on the bright metal. Markets are turning caution, as tensions mount in the run-up to the Fed showdown, with markets eagerly awaiting fresh hints on the timing and scope of the Fed’s first interest cut this year.
Volatility dropped in the US session as investors gear up for the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcement. The United States (US) central bank will unveil its decision on Wednesday alongside fresh economic projections. Financial markets head into the event with high levels of caution, as recent data suggest US policymakers may hold rates higher for longer.
Markets are currently pricing in just about 60% of a June Fed rate cut. While the December Fed’s Dot Plot chart projects three rate cuts, it remains to be seen what the central bank’s outlook on interest rate cuts offers. Also, of note, will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the post-policy meeting press conference for fresh impact on the value of the US Dollar and the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
On Tuesday, Gold price snapped its early rebound and fell as low as $2,148 before recovering losses to settle near $2,158. The downtick in the Gold price was sponsored by a renewed US Dollar buying interest.
The USD/JPY pair rallied hard, following the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), driving the US Dollar higher while weighing on the US Dollar. However, some modest weakness in the US Treasury bond yields and a risk-on rally on Wall Street indices capped the US Dollar upside, allowing Gold price to stage a decent comeback.
🟢 Crucial Price Zones for next 15 trading days:
BS: C: $2121/2100/2085/2048
SS: R: $2196/2200/2233/2266
🟢 I expect A pattern:
I will SELL HIGHS to pull NAP above $2130/2145 in case of higher price rallies. PG $30 | Exit NAP
🆘Current DD: 2% | Margin available: 58,000%
Current NAP: $2141 | Expected Exit: $2130/2121
🟢 D1 PRSRZ | Price Zones | XAUUSD
📌 PPZ R1 2160 S1 2154
R2 2170
R3 2179
R4 2185
R5 2194
S2 2144
S3 2135
S4 2129
S5 2118
🟢 W1 PRSRZ | Price Zones
📌 PPZ R1 2163 S1 2148
R2 2186
R3 2210
R4 2225
R5 2248
S2 2124
S3 2101
S4 2086
S5 2062
🔘 GFA Parameters:
SMA
XAUUSD at H4S5
H4S1 $2121 H4S2 $2075 crucial stops
🍎A Patterns:
H1A0.0 2144
H4A50 2121
H4A618 2101
H4A100 2042
🍎 V patterns:
H1V100 2170
H4V0.0 2196
🔘 Co-relations:
📌 USDJPY: CMP 151.555: at HIGHS of
🔺16.10.2022: Price: 151.800
🔺12.11.2023: Price: 151.800
📌 Price of XAUUSD CMP: $2157, past price track record:
🔻 16.10.2022: Price: $1626
🔻 12.11.2023: Price: $1936
🟢 Technical Co-relations:
🔺USD S 62
🔻JPY S 11
🔺AUD S 60
🔺DXY 103.500 (RT+)
🔺US10YT 4.293 RT+)
US F RT+ H1S5