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I am a professional Forex trader and Money manager from Bangladesh, with a trading background that spans back to 2015.
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Sarowar Jahan
USD/JPY: Rally To Accelerate Further If USD/JPY Breaks Above 135.15 - MUFG
MUFG Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and sees scope for further gains in the near term.
"The BoJ’s contrasting stance with other major central banks leaves JPY vulnerable to further weakness in the near-term at least while the sell-off in global equity markets has paused for now. It has been notable that renewed yen selling pressure in recent weeks has also coincided with a relief rally for global equity markets," MUFG notes.
"Yen weakness is likely to accelerate further if USD/JPY breaks above 135.15. BoJ Governor Kuroda is not convinced though that there is much further room for the USD/JPY to continue marching higher unless the Fed to delivers faster and more rate hikes than currently planned," MUFG adds.
MUFG Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and sees scope for further gains in the near term.
"The BoJ’s contrasting stance with other major central banks leaves JPY vulnerable to further weakness in the near-term at least while the sell-off in global equity markets has paused for now. It has been notable that renewed yen selling pressure in recent weeks has also coincided with a relief rally for global equity markets," MUFG notes.
"Yen weakness is likely to accelerate further if USD/JPY breaks above 135.15. BoJ Governor Kuroda is not convinced though that there is much further room for the USD/JPY to continue marching higher unless the Fed to delivers faster and more rate hikes than currently planned," MUFG adds.
· 1
Evgeny Belyaev
2022.06.10
!!!!!!!!!
Sarowar Jahan
JPY: New Day, New Lows; Increased Speculation On Japan Intervention To Slow The Move - MUFG
MUFG Research discusses the JPY outlook and flags a scope for increased speculation on Japan intervention.
"The speed of the move in yen depreciation is certainly now on a par with what we had during much of March and April and at higher levels, there will be inevitable increased speculation on Japan intervention to at least slow the move," MUFG notes.
"Governor Kuroda did say today that rapid yen selling is “undesirable” but it would be difficult at this juncture for the MoF to justify yen buying intervention given the actions of the BoJ. If US yields remain underpinned over the short-term yen selling momentum will likely persist," MUFG adds.
MUFG Research discusses the JPY outlook and flags a scope for increased speculation on Japan intervention.
"The speed of the move in yen depreciation is certainly now on a par with what we had during much of March and April and at higher levels, there will be inevitable increased speculation on Japan intervention to at least slow the move," MUFG notes.
"Governor Kuroda did say today that rapid yen selling is “undesirable” but it would be difficult at this juncture for the MoF to justify yen buying intervention given the actions of the BoJ. If US yields remain underpinned over the short-term yen selling momentum will likely persist," MUFG adds.
· 3
Sarowar Jahan
USD: Here Is Why Betting On risk Aversion And THE next Big USD Rally Is Risky - Credit Agricole
Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the market outlook and argues that a sustained spike in risk aversion is unlikely.
"We doubt that the Fed will be considerably more hawkish than expected by the markets, in part because we believe that US inflation peaked in March-April – a view that is expected to be confirmed by the US CPI data on Friday. In addition, global PMIs outside China are not suggesting that a global downturn is imminent, while the outlook for the Chinese economy itself could improve now that the pandemic lockdowns are being lifted.
Last but not least, a record amount of USD cash is sitting on the sidelines. In turn, this could mean that buyers on dips could emerge to prop up both the stock and FI markets," CACIB notes.
"We, therefore, doubt that we will see a sustained spike in risk aversion and thus the next big rally of King USD in the near term. The only exception to that could be USD/JPY where the lack of meaningful FX intervention threat seems to have emboldened the bull," CACIB adds.
Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the market outlook and argues that a sustained spike in risk aversion is unlikely.
"We doubt that the Fed will be considerably more hawkish than expected by the markets, in part because we believe that US inflation peaked in March-April – a view that is expected to be confirmed by the US CPI data on Friday. In addition, global PMIs outside China are not suggesting that a global downturn is imminent, while the outlook for the Chinese economy itself could improve now that the pandemic lockdowns are being lifted.
Last but not least, a record amount of USD cash is sitting on the sidelines. In turn, this could mean that buyers on dips could emerge to prop up both the stock and FI markets," CACIB notes.
"We, therefore, doubt that we will see a sustained spike in risk aversion and thus the next big rally of King USD in the near term. The only exception to that could be USD/JPY where the lack of meaningful FX intervention threat seems to have emboldened the bull," CACIB adds.
· 2
Sarowar Jahan
GBP: Starting To Look Expensive Vs EUR and USD S/T - Credit Agricole
Credit Agricole sees GBP as a little expensive around current levels against both the USD and EUR.
"Our short-term FX fair value analysis further suggests that, after the latest FX market moves, the GBP is starting to look expensive vs both the EUR and the USD. Moreover, we expect two rate hikes from the BoE this year and doubt that the MCP will be able to meet the market expectations of almost four rate hikes," CACIB notes.
"With many positives seemingly in the price of the GBP, the currency could struggle to extend its recent gains in the absence of further support from the UK rates market," CACIB adds.
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Credit Agricole sees GBP as a little expensive around current levels against both the USD and EUR.
"Our short-term FX fair value analysis further suggests that, after the latest FX market moves, the GBP is starting to look expensive vs both the EUR and the USD. Moreover, we expect two rate hikes from the BoE this year and doubt that the MCP will be able to meet the market expectations of almost four rate hikes," CACIB notes.
"With many positives seemingly in the price of the GBP, the currency could struggle to extend its recent gains in the absence of further support from the UK rates market," CACIB adds.
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· 15
Afficher tous les commentaires (4)
Jesielinda Riodique
2022.02.05
Hi im from philippines, to all the trader sorry fotr i didnt sharing my own post to my profile News Feed...Because i know how to Create my onwn Trade SignaL.or How to speak english Captionto for me its so hard hehehe. Because its so veryhard and high Explanation to speak english heheheif, ...if i need time to share my own post Signal..and more posting Same like to all the members here..but i tryy best...And sorry if i cant understard to all the task...becouse im a poor lady and no high education grading skills..inshort po No Read no write po 😊 and my finish study at grades school ..but i try my best,..For now i see all the postingg and try to learning how to Trade, everytime im not not busy a have a free time, i saw and pick a phone to see this Apps MQT5 and start to read this Task .but why? im so happy and interested to read and study this im feeling confidence and peoud, Hehehe, becouse is not just the end the feelings...becouse to much happines and feeling like a child, hehehe so much appreciated to have Send reward, bunos, and congradulation to all my gmail account,Also the i cant read and look scroalll doand up
Jesielinda Riodique
2022.02.05
Luh why na send my comment is not finish ..i shy to all of you ...Sorry po for this comments...But i try my best to learn..goodluck and stay safe po 💝
Sarowar Jahan
EUR: Pausing For A Breather, But Still Vulnerable - ING
ING Research maintains a bearish bias on EUR/USD in the near term.
"EUR/USD continued its fall, now trading in the lower half of the 1.12/1.13 range. While widespread dollar strength was mostly behind yesterday’s leg lower in the pair, the common currency is also dealing with a worsening of the Covid situation in Europe," ING notes.
"The data-flow is also looking unlikely to come to the rescue of the EUR. A potential pause in the dollar’s appreciation today may give EUR/USD some rest, but the risks remain skewed to the downside and the recent break below 1.1250 may have paved the way for another leg lower to the 1.1170 support in the coming days," ING adds.
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ING Research maintains a bearish bias on EUR/USD in the near term.
"EUR/USD continued its fall, now trading in the lower half of the 1.12/1.13 range. While widespread dollar strength was mostly behind yesterday’s leg lower in the pair, the common currency is also dealing with a worsening of the Covid situation in Europe," ING notes.
"The data-flow is also looking unlikely to come to the rescue of the EUR. A potential pause in the dollar’s appreciation today may give EUR/USD some rest, but the risks remain skewed to the downside and the recent break below 1.1250 may have paved the way for another leg lower to the 1.1170 support in the coming days," ING adds.
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· 5
Sarowar Jahan
EUR/USD: Caution Here But Down Move May Have Further To Run - MUFG
MUFG Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and shifts into a cautious bias in the very near term.
"While the scale of the move lower in such a short period of time suggests caution, there remain factors that could encourage further declines going forward," MUFG notes.
"Our FX forecasts have shown EUR as the laggard over the forecast horizon given the scope for the ECB to remain well behind most other G10 central banks in hiking rates. In October, there was a notable shift in rate expectations higher that dragged even EUR rates higher. The 3-year forward OIS for EUR turned positive in October but economic developments in the euro-zone lately and ECB communications have driven rates back into negative territory," MUFG adds.
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MUFG Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and shifts into a cautious bias in the very near term.
"While the scale of the move lower in such a short period of time suggests caution, there remain factors that could encourage further declines going forward," MUFG notes.
"Our FX forecasts have shown EUR as the laggard over the forecast horizon given the scope for the ECB to remain well behind most other G10 central banks in hiking rates. In October, there was a notable shift in rate expectations higher that dragged even EUR rates higher. The 3-year forward OIS for EUR turned positive in October but economic developments in the euro-zone lately and ECB communications have driven rates back into negative territory," MUFG adds.
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· 6
Sarowar Jahan
USD: Fed Leadership Uncertainty Continues To Pose Risk Of Setback For USD - MUFG
MUFG Research discusses the USD outlook in light of the recent reports that the nomination of Fed Chair Powell for a second term is far from a done deal.
"The correction lower for the US dollar since the end of last week has been reinforced by reports overnight that Fed Governor Lael Brainard was interviewed for the position of Fed Chair when she visited the White House last week. If Fed Governor Lael Brainard was put forward to be the next Fed Chair market participants are likely to at least initially anticipate a more dovish outlook for Fed policy," MUFG notes.
"The building risk of a dovish outcome will encourage market participants to cut long US dollar positions," MUFG adds.
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MUFG Research discusses the USD outlook in light of the recent reports that the nomination of Fed Chair Powell for a second term is far from a done deal.
"The correction lower for the US dollar since the end of last week has been reinforced by reports overnight that Fed Governor Lael Brainard was interviewed for the position of Fed Chair when she visited the White House last week. If Fed Governor Lael Brainard was put forward to be the next Fed Chair market participants are likely to at least initially anticipate a more dovish outlook for Fed policy," MUFG notes.
"The building risk of a dovish outcome will encourage market participants to cut long US dollar positions," MUFG adds.
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· 5
Sarowar Jahan
Free Signal
✅Pair: USDJPY
⤵️Sell at 114.35
🔴 Stop Loss: 114.60
🟢 Take Profit: 113.20
✅Pair: USDJPY
⤵️Sell at 114.35
🔴 Stop Loss: 114.60
🟢 Take Profit: 113.20
· 5
Sarowar Jahan
USD/JPY: A Break Of Above 115 Possible But Risks Of An Abrupt Correction Lower Increasing - MUFG
MUFG Research warns of the scope for an abrupt correction lower in USD/JPY.
"The scale of JPY selling is looking excessive and while a breakthrough 115.00 is still possible the risks of an abrupt correction lower are increasing," MUFG notes.
"As can be seen below, the 1mth percentage change in USD/JPY divergence with the percentage change in DXY is at an extreme that looks unsustainable. A degree of USD/JPY correction lower and DXY higher tends to be the end result when these extreme divergences in performance emerge. In June 2020, a technical break of 110.00 fuelled the divergence, similar to the technical break of 112.00 on this occasion," MUFG adds.
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MUFG Research warns of the scope for an abrupt correction lower in USD/JPY.
"The scale of JPY selling is looking excessive and while a breakthrough 115.00 is still possible the risks of an abrupt correction lower are increasing," MUFG notes.
"As can be seen below, the 1mth percentage change in USD/JPY divergence with the percentage change in DXY is at an extreme that looks unsustainable. A degree of USD/JPY correction lower and DXY higher tends to be the end result when these extreme divergences in performance emerge. In June 2020, a technical break of 110.00 fuelled the divergence, similar to the technical break of 112.00 on this occasion," MUFG adds.
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· 5
Sarowar Jahan
USD/JPY: Unlikely To Regain Its YTD High Of Around 111.70; Expecting A Pullback Towards 109.10 - Citi
Citi discusses the USD/JPY outlook and sees scope for a pullback towards 109.10.
"USDJPY climbed above 110.6 last week on the Fed’s more hawkish than expected statement, while the concern for the Chinese property markets eased somewhat. We don’t think the pair can regain its YTD high of around 111.7 registered in July easily and expect a pullback to around 109.1," Citi notes.
"Regarding the LDP presidential election on September 29 this week, we do not expect USDJPY to be much affected by the outcome in the near term," Citi adds.
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Citi discusses the USD/JPY outlook and sees scope for a pullback towards 109.10.
"USDJPY climbed above 110.6 last week on the Fed’s more hawkish than expected statement, while the concern for the Chinese property markets eased somewhat. We don’t think the pair can regain its YTD high of around 111.7 registered in July easily and expect a pullback to around 109.1," Citi notes.
"Regarding the LDP presidential election on September 29 this week, we do not expect USDJPY to be much affected by the outcome in the near term," Citi adds.
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· 5
Sarowar Jahan
USD/CAD: Ready, Steady, Fade; What's The Trade? - Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse discusses USD/CAD outlook and likes selling the pair on a rally into 1.28.
"Our stance on CAD has been to look for a retracement in USDCAD above 1.2800, above which we said we would look to go tactically short again, aiming for a 1.2450: we do not see a reason to change approach for now. The view priced into markets that the BoC will taper asset purchases again to C$1bn/week at the 27 Oct decision still seems correct; similarly, while the most recent BoC meeting failed to excite, it also provided no new reasons to second-guess the currently priced-in rates outlook, with lift-off expected to take place in Q3 2022," CS notes.
. The election, while in our view not terribly consequential for the broader CAD outlook, might nevertheless provide a catalyst for the retracement we’ve been looking for, as an example if the NDP were to perform better than expected. We stand ready to sell a spike in USDCAD to 1.2800, with a 1.2450 target and would add a stop loss to the position at 1.2950, just above the mid-Aug highs," CS adds.
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Credit Suisse discusses USD/CAD outlook and likes selling the pair on a rally into 1.28.
"Our stance on CAD has been to look for a retracement in USDCAD above 1.2800, above which we said we would look to go tactically short again, aiming for a 1.2450: we do not see a reason to change approach for now. The view priced into markets that the BoC will taper asset purchases again to C$1bn/week at the 27 Oct decision still seems correct; similarly, while the most recent BoC meeting failed to excite, it also provided no new reasons to second-guess the currently priced-in rates outlook, with lift-off expected to take place in Q3 2022," CS notes.
. The election, while in our view not terribly consequential for the broader CAD outlook, might nevertheless provide a catalyst for the retracement we’ve been looking for, as an example if the NDP were to perform better than expected. We stand ready to sell a spike in USDCAD to 1.2800, with a 1.2450 target and would add a stop loss to the position at 1.2950, just above the mid-Aug highs," CS adds.
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· 3
Sarowar Jahan
BOC: No fireworks expected on Wednesday – BofA
Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy decision.
Key quotes
"We expect the BoC to remain on hold at this meeting with the policy rate at 0.25% and with bond purchases at C$2bn per week. Despite high inflation, the economy is still too weak to withdraw stimulus, and the US Fed is providing room to wait. A Federal Election on 20 September may be one more consideration to wait.”
"A potentially dovish tone to the statement suggests idiosyncratic downside risks to the Canadian dollar as relative monetary policy drivers remain alive and well. Still, CAD will continue to be influenced by terms of trade developments (i.e. commodity prices) and global risk appetite, both of which have rebounded of late on expectations that Fed accommodation will persist as US data have softened. We see limits to this. Per our recent forecast revision, we expect USDCAD at 1.30 at end-year."
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Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy decision.
Key quotes
"We expect the BoC to remain on hold at this meeting with the policy rate at 0.25% and with bond purchases at C$2bn per week. Despite high inflation, the economy is still too weak to withdraw stimulus, and the US Fed is providing room to wait. A Federal Election on 20 September may be one more consideration to wait.”
"A potentially dovish tone to the statement suggests idiosyncratic downside risks to the Canadian dollar as relative monetary policy drivers remain alive and well. Still, CAD will continue to be influenced by terms of trade developments (i.e. commodity prices) and global risk appetite, both of which have rebounded of late on expectations that Fed accommodation will persist as US data have softened. We see limits to this. Per our recent forecast revision, we expect USDCAD at 1.30 at end-year."
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· 3
Sarowar Jahan
EUR/CHF: Downside about to end? – Commerzbank
In the opinion of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, the downtrend in EUR/CHF could be in its final stage.
Key Quotes
“EUR/CHF is grinding lower but the recent low at 1.0798 has again not been confirmed by the daily RSI, and while we suspect this may be the end stage of the down move, but for now the market continues to weigh on the downside near term. Nearby resistance is seen at the June low at 1.0872 and also at the May 11 and 24 lows at 1.0925/27.”
“Failure at 1.0800, on a closing, would target 1.0739, the 2021 low. The 1.0736 December low is regarded as the breakdown point to the 1.0629 November low.”
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In the opinion of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, the downtrend in EUR/CHF could be in its final stage.
Key Quotes
“EUR/CHF is grinding lower but the recent low at 1.0798 has again not been confirmed by the daily RSI, and while we suspect this may be the end stage of the down move, but for now the market continues to weigh on the downside near term. Nearby resistance is seen at the June low at 1.0872 and also at the May 11 and 24 lows at 1.0925/27.”
“Failure at 1.0800, on a closing, would target 1.0739, the 2021 low. The 1.0736 December low is regarded as the breakdown point to the 1.0629 November low.”
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· 3
Sarowar Jahan
AUD/NZD: Divergence between Australia and New Zealand to favor the downside – MUFG
The Australian dollar is facing increasing bearish risk as zero-covid policy could weigh on growth, reinforcing the divergence with the New Zealand dollar, explained analysts at MUFG Bank. They have a trade idea of shorting AUD/NZD with a target at 1.0250 and stop-loss at 1.0750
Key Quotes:
“We have had some data releases this week that we believe will increasingly see investors question the zero-covid policy stance given the potential impact to growth if infections continue to escalate. Retail Sales in June plunged 1.8%, much weaker than expected while today the Composite PMI for July fell to 45.2, the lowest since May 2020. These developments will only reinforce the divergence with New Zealand where monetary policy will be tightened far sooner.”
“We acknowledge there is a clear risk that RBNZ rate hike expectations could well be pared back but the surge in New Zealand inflation last week (1.3% Q/Q versus 0.7% expected) we believe will leave the RBNZ more determined to remove policy stimulus assuming there are no fresh outbreaks of COVID in New Zealand.”
“NZD should be less sensitive to global developments while Australia domestic developments will add to AUD woes. New Zealand today announced the suspension of all quarantine-free travel from Australia for 8 weeks which should limit risks in New Zealand where there are currently 80 active COVID cases, with an increase of 20 in the last 24hrs and all confirmed at the border”.
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The Australian dollar is facing increasing bearish risk as zero-covid policy could weigh on growth, reinforcing the divergence with the New Zealand dollar, explained analysts at MUFG Bank. They have a trade idea of shorting AUD/NZD with a target at 1.0250 and stop-loss at 1.0750
Key Quotes:
“We have had some data releases this week that we believe will increasingly see investors question the zero-covid policy stance given the potential impact to growth if infections continue to escalate. Retail Sales in June plunged 1.8%, much weaker than expected while today the Composite PMI for July fell to 45.2, the lowest since May 2020. These developments will only reinforce the divergence with New Zealand where monetary policy will be tightened far sooner.”
“We acknowledge there is a clear risk that RBNZ rate hike expectations could well be pared back but the surge in New Zealand inflation last week (1.3% Q/Q versus 0.7% expected) we believe will leave the RBNZ more determined to remove policy stimulus assuming there are no fresh outbreaks of COVID in New Zealand.”
“NZD should be less sensitive to global developments while Australia domestic developments will add to AUD woes. New Zealand today announced the suspension of all quarantine-free travel from Australia for 8 weeks which should limit risks in New Zealand where there are currently 80 active COVID cases, with an increase of 20 in the last 24hrs and all confirmed at the border”.
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· 2
Sarowar Jahan
JPY: Sell USD/JPY Bounce - Citi
CitiFX Strategy likes going short USD/JPY FOR 107.50.
"JPY was the weakest currency in the G10 space in the first half of this year, but it is performing well in July. We think this changing of performance reflects shifts in the JPY flow environment and believe USDJPY now has scope for further downside in the medium term," Citi notes.
"The pair has rebounded after dropping close to 109 on Tuesday; we think this bounce provides a nice entry point to get into USDJPY shorts," Citi adds.
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CitiFX Strategy likes going short USD/JPY FOR 107.50.
"JPY was the weakest currency in the G10 space in the first half of this year, but it is performing well in July. We think this changing of performance reflects shifts in the JPY flow environment and believe USDJPY now has scope for further downside in the medium term," Citi notes.
"The pair has rebounded after dropping close to 109 on Tuesday; we think this bounce provides a nice entry point to get into USDJPY shorts," Citi adds.
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· 3
Sarowar Jahan
CHF: Upside Corrective; Staying Long EUR/CHF - Credit Agricole
Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses CHF outlook and maintains a bearish bias and a long exposure in EUR/CHF as a long-term trade.
"With the CHF not far from levels where it may increase downside risks to price growth more meaningfully again, and when considering that core inflation remains weak, it appears unlikely that the CHF faces strongly rising upside risks from here," CACIB notes.
"After all, the SNB has been reiterating of late that a policy mix consisting of negative rates and currency intervention as needed will stay in place for longer, with all its implications for the CHF. That said, we remain in favor of fading currency strength while staying long EUR/CHF as a trade recommendation," CACIB adds.
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Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses CHF outlook and maintains a bearish bias and a long exposure in EUR/CHF as a long-term trade.
"With the CHF not far from levels where it may increase downside risks to price growth more meaningfully again, and when considering that core inflation remains weak, it appears unlikely that the CHF faces strongly rising upside risks from here," CACIB notes.
"After all, the SNB has been reiterating of late that a policy mix consisting of negative rates and currency intervention as needed will stay in place for longer, with all its implications for the CHF. That said, we remain in favor of fading currency strength while staying long EUR/CHF as a trade recommendation," CACIB adds.
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· 2
Sarowar Jahan
EUR/USD: 3 Downside Risks On The Rise - Credit Agricole
Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and outlines 3 downside risks in the near term.
" 1. Global supply chain disruptions (due to shortages of chips and other auto parts, for example) and trade barriers have hurt global manufacturing output and trade.
2. The ECB has recently adopted a more dovish policy stance that could keep its policy divergence with the Fed in place for longer once the Fed starts QE tapering," CACIB notes.
"3. If President Biden’s spending plans are successful, their positive economic impact may be less pronounced compared to their predecessors. The fiscal package will nevertheless contrast with the lack of policy activism on the other side of the Atlantic where the appetite for more government spending has waned following the creation of the EU recovery fund," CACIB adds.
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Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and outlines 3 downside risks in the near term.
" 1. Global supply chain disruptions (due to shortages of chips and other auto parts, for example) and trade barriers have hurt global manufacturing output and trade.
2. The ECB has recently adopted a more dovish policy stance that could keep its policy divergence with the Fed in place for longer once the Fed starts QE tapering," CACIB notes.
"3. If President Biden’s spending plans are successful, their positive economic impact may be less pronounced compared to their predecessors. The fiscal package will nevertheless contrast with the lack of policy activism on the other side of the Atlantic where the appetite for more government spending has waned following the creation of the EU recovery fund," CACIB adds.
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· 4
Sarowar Jahan
USD/CAD: Better Valued Trading In Middle Of 1.2000 To 1.2500 Range - MUFG
MUFG Research discusses USD/CAD outlook and sees a scope for a move back in the middle of 1.2000-1.12500
"The Canadian dollar continues to trade on the back foot in the near-term with USD/CAD just above the 1.2500-level. The Canadian dollar weakened modestly after yesterday’s latest BoC policy meeting. The BoC policy meeting was largely in line with expectations but there appears to have been some disappointment that the BoC did not strike an even more hawkish tone," MUFG notes.
"Taking yield spreads and the current price of oil into account, our short-term model estimate signals that USD/CAD would be better-valued trading in the middle of a 1.2000 to 1.2500 range. The scaling back of elevated CAD longs could be leading to weakness overshooting in the near-term," MUFG adds.
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MUFG Research discusses USD/CAD outlook and sees a scope for a move back in the middle of 1.2000-1.12500
"The Canadian dollar continues to trade on the back foot in the near-term with USD/CAD just above the 1.2500-level. The Canadian dollar weakened modestly after yesterday’s latest BoC policy meeting. The BoC policy meeting was largely in line with expectations but there appears to have been some disappointment that the BoC did not strike an even more hawkish tone," MUFG notes.
"Taking yield spreads and the current price of oil into account, our short-term model estimate signals that USD/CAD would be better-valued trading in the middle of a 1.2000 to 1.2500 range. The scaling back of elevated CAD longs could be leading to weakness overshooting in the near-term," MUFG adds.
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· 3
Sarowar Jahan
USD/JPY risks a move to 109.50 – UOB
In the opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY could slip back to the mid-109.00s in the next weeks.
Key Quotes
24-hour view: “Yesterday, we held the view that USD ‘could test 110.75 first before a pullback can be expected. USD subsequently rose to 110.69 before staging a surprisingly sharp drop to 109.92. The rapid decline has room to extend lower but oversold conditions suggest that the major support at 109.50 is out of reach (there is another support at 109.70). Resistance is at 110.10 followed by 110.30.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was from yesterday (14 Jul, spot at 110.55) where we indicated that USD ‘is likely to trade between 110.00 and 111.15 for a period of time’. We did not anticipate the volatile price actions as USD dropped quickly below 110.00. Shorter-term downward momentum is beginning to improve and USD is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 109.50. At this stage, the odds for a sustained decline below this level are not high. The current mild downward pressure is deemed intact as long the ‘strong resistance’ at 110.55 is not breached.”
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In the opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY could slip back to the mid-109.00s in the next weeks.
Key Quotes
24-hour view: “Yesterday, we held the view that USD ‘could test 110.75 first before a pullback can be expected. USD subsequently rose to 110.69 before staging a surprisingly sharp drop to 109.92. The rapid decline has room to extend lower but oversold conditions suggest that the major support at 109.50 is out of reach (there is another support at 109.70). Resistance is at 110.10 followed by 110.30.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was from yesterday (14 Jul, spot at 110.55) where we indicated that USD ‘is likely to trade between 110.00 and 111.15 for a period of time’. We did not anticipate the volatile price actions as USD dropped quickly below 110.00. Shorter-term downward momentum is beginning to improve and USD is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 109.50. At this stage, the odds for a sustained decline below this level are not high. The current mild downward pressure is deemed intact as long the ‘strong resistance’ at 110.55 is not breached.”
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· 2