Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu / Perfil

16.01.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis

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13.01.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis

Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu
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Last Nov. and Dec. months:

Core CPI
CPI MoM
CPI YoY

All 3 (-)

In November, Gold price moved + from 1709 - 1757 but did not retrace on the same day and was under price trap, and retraced 30% after 1 week.

In December, Spot Gold Price shot up from 1787-1823, and retraced 30% same day and 100% next day.

Past data is not an absolute guarantee of future performance, however it is wise to refer and keep in mind the possibilities based on past data.

Do not risk more than you can afford to lose.

Traders from New York to Chicago to London will be glued to their screens Thursday morning waiting for the latest consumer price index reading from the Labor Department, which is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

In fact, many will be watching trading closely before the numbers even hit — because of what happened last month.

On Dec. 13, the monthly CPI, one of the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measures, was scheduled to be released precisely at 8:30 a.m. as usual. But something odd happened in the 60 seconds leading up to it.

Trading volume in 10-year Treasury futures soared, reaching three times the level seen a minute before the release of any of the last 24 CPI reports.

The Labor Department dismissed the possibility of a data leak after conducting an initial investigation. There’s been no indication that regulators such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or Securities and Exchange Commission are digging into the situation.

On December, 14: Karine Jean-Pierre, the press secretary for President Joe Biden, quickly brushed off the question when it came in toward the end of her daily press conference Tuesday. No, she said, there was no chance that anyone in the White House leaked the November inflation report before its 8:30 a.m. publication. Too much fuss was being made, as she saw it, over what were just “minor market movements.”

12.01.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis

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11.01.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis

Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday noted that stabilizing prices requires making tough decisions that can be unpopular politically.

In other remarks, the central bank leader said the Fed is “not, and will not be, a ‘climate policymaker.’”

“Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with immeasurable benefits over time. But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy,” the chair said in prepared remarks.

The Fed this year will, however, launch a pilot program that calls for the nation’s six biggest banks to take part in a “scenario analysis” aimed at testing institutions’ stability in the event of major climate events.

The exercise will take place apart from the so-called stress tests that the Fed uses to test how banks would fare under hypothetical economic downturns. Participating institutions are Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo.

Impact of Hawkish FED Members' Comments on GOLD

The yellow metal loves doves, but hates hawks.

Gold is a non-interest bearing asset, so higher interest rates make it less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets. Gold is also believed to be an inflation hedge, so hawkish monetary policy implemented to keep inflation in check reduces the need to use gold for that purpose.

Hence, hawkish comments are generally deadly for gold, while dovish signals are invigorating for the yellow metal. The example may be the surprisingly hawkish Fed monetary policy meeting in October 2015. The released statement from that meeting opened doors for an interest rate hike in December, which strengthened the U.S. dollar and sent gold prices south

In theory, hawkish comments about the monetary policy are negative for the precious metals. It is generally true, but reality is complex and that relationship doesn’t always hold. Gold and silver sometimes shrug off hawkish comments from the Fed, if there are present some bullish factors at play.

Another problem is with the interpretation of the Fed’s signals. Central banks don’t speak English, but they use cloudy newspeak, often sending contradictory signals. Precious metals traders may thus differ in their interpretation of the comments – and gold prices may not react in line with expectations.

Apropos expectations: they are very important. Precious metals only react if the Fed’s communication is more hawkish or less hawkish than expected. What really matters is not reality, but how the real events deviate from expectations. And very often the strategy “buy the rumor, sell the fact” works very well – gold and silver respond badly to hawkish comments, but they flourish after hawkish actions.

10.01.2023 | Price Forecast | Spot Gold Analysis | XAUUSD Analysis | PR Gold Analysis

Professional Forex Trading Courses by Piyush Ratnu

Duration: 1 Week | 1 month | 6 months | 12 months

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The Swiss National Bank posted an annual loss of 132 billion Swiss francs ($143 billion) in 2022, it said on Monday, the biggest in its 115-year history as falling stock and fixed-income markets hit the value of its share and bond portfolio.

A strengthening Swiss franc also had a negative impact.

Monday's provisional figure, which marked a reverse from a 26 billion franc profit in 2021, was far bigger than the previous record loss of 23 billion francs chalked up in 2015. It is equivalent to slightly more than the annual GDP of Morocco.

The SNB will release detailed annual figures on March 6.

It made a loss of 131 billion francs from its foreign currency positions - the more than 800 billion francs in stocks and bonds it bought during a long campaign to weaken the Swiss franc.

Global stock markets weakened and bond prices fell last year as central banks around the world, including the SNB, hiked interest rates to combat inflation.

The strong Swiss franc - it rose above parity versus against the euro in July - led to exchange rate-related losses.

Impact on GOLD:

How are the Swiss Franc and Gold Prices Related?
Both the Swiss Franc (CHF) and physical gold have acted as reserve 'currencies' thereby establishing a relationship between the gold price and Swiss Franc. Despite some differences, the Swiss Franc and the gold price are correlated and the similarities shared by the two can be clearly identified.

The first factor that binds these two key variables (Swiss Franc and Gold Prices) together is the huge amount of Gold Reserves. The Swiss National Bank, or SNB, is one of the largest possessors of gold reserves worldwide. This comes after legislation passed by the government that the Swiss Franc must be backed by gold. This new law was voted into place after the country decided to sell some of its gold holdings. Even though the SNB sold a large part of its gold reserves the bank still holds maintains enough reserves to back approximately 10% of Swiss Francs in circulation through gold. The rise in the prices of gold through 2020 has been of immense benefit for the Swiss Franc; proving the close-knitted relationship between the two.

The second influential factor is the safe-haven status enjoyed by the Swiss banking system. This is what has influenced the positive correlation between the Swiss Franc and Gold prices. Gold reserves are said to act as an inflation hedge and it is no wonder that due to this very reason, Switzerland has faced a very low rate of inflation. Switzerland was able to maintain its Consumer Price Index at 0.5% for 25 years and, for 10 to 12 years commencing in 2008, price levels in Switzerland remained unchanged. The SNB tried to stimulate inflation or lower the value of CHF by reducing the interest rates but this action did not yield any positive results. It was so driven to bring change in the inflation rate that the bank tried to introduce a negative interest rate of -0.75%. This also proved to be futile. Thus Switzerland chose to operate on 0% interest rate.

Switzerland benefits from the prices of gold as a custodian of high gold reserves, showcasing a positive relationship between the Swiss franc and gold prices.

It has not attracted much attention in the financial press but the World Gold Council (WGC), a think tank and lobby group for the industry, has reported that purchases of the precious metal, once the basis of the international monetary system, were the highest in 2022 for 55 years. (hence GOLD was pulled down to lowest in last two years?)

The buying surge has been led by Russia and China with a number of smaller countries also increasing their holdings. It appears to be a response to two developments—the freezing of the Russian central bank’s dollar holdings after the invasion in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over the stability of US financial markets and its political system.

The People’s Bank of China reported that in November it made its first increase in gold holdings since 2019, buying 32 tonnes worth around $1.8 billion. Major buyers in the third quarter were Turkey, Uzbekistan and Qatar.

U.S. stock futures rose at Asia open on follow-through from a relatively benign PCE last Friday, but this is the time of year when more questions are asked than quality answers provided

Any sign of ebbing of inflation constraint for U.S. equities is incredibly significant; remember, as recently as late summer, it was not evident that inflation was under control.

However, should the recession theme take on more weight in 2023, S&P 500 is undoubtedly NOT priced for a hard landing, which is still a base case on Wall Street?

China continues to fast-track the border reopening, no longer subjecting inbound travellers to quarantine in early January. Tacitly, policymakers have decided to accept a sizeable Covid wave.

US economic growth for 2022 was better than everyone feared. The bad news, however, is weaker figures will show in early 2023. This uncertainty makes central bankers' jobs much more difficult as they navigate the waters of high inflation (both headline and core) and tight job markets, all while growth slows. And not too surprising the year is ending with an unusual twist as policymakers are in a state of disorder, with some super hawkish and others less so.

Gold remains supported by seasonal trends and central bank buying, and as people start to recalibrate the 2023 portfolio with investment confidence tapering off, gold is getting bought as a keen diversifier.

XAUUSD
$1777 zone
ACHIEVED

AS ALERTED YESTERDAY

US10YT -
DXY -
US F - (RT+)
USDJPY 135.00

US S 43
GBP 89
EUR 54
JPY 47
AUD 44

XAUUSD under price trap of 1808

R stops: 1818/1836-1846/1866/1888
C: 1777/1735/1717

I expect A pattern formation.

Exit point: M5.236 in 60 minutes.

FED Rate Day + FOMC + DOT PLOT:

Rate decision

"The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting" – Fed Chair Powell's words on November 30 were a clear signal that the bank will raise borrowing costs by 50 bps after four consecutive increases of 75 bps. Barring a massive surprise in Tuesday's inflation report, the world's most powerful central bank will deliver on that promise, meeting market expectations. (Possibly)

DOT PLOT

Powell promised rates would rise to a higher level than previously thought, but by how much? New projections by all FOMC members showed rates ending 2023 at 4.6%, and the number will surely rise. The round 5% level is critical.

The Fed's previous dot plot pointed to rates hitting 4.6% in 2023, 3.9% in 2024

Powell Speech

Back in November, comments about monetary policy working with lag implied slower rate hikes and boosted markets. Then came Powell and stated that the peak rate will be higher, sending stocks sinking.

I expect a similar whipsaw but in the other direction: markets to suffer first, then cheer. Why? Powell has pivoted. In late August, he spoke for merely eight minutes, vowing to crush inflation without mentioning a soft landing. That was then.

Three months later, he replaced the hawkish message with a different tune – promising not to wreck the economy in the fight against inflation and not to "overtighten." In his press conference, Powell may opt for a more conciliatory tone, putting a greater emphasis on the ability to cut rates if the economy weakens too fast.

It may be subtler – the Fed Chair could focus on the signs of softness in the labor market, opening the door to reacting to job losses. There are some signs of weakness even within the recent upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls’ (NFP) report.

Beyond the expected 50 bps hike, the Fed's projections may suggest higher rates for longer, weighing on markets and boosting the Greenback. That would change when Powell speaks up, repeating his more dovish tone, as recently heard at the Brookings Institute. That would reverse the picture. This potential whipsaw creates an opportunity, a mirror image of last month's rate decision price action.

Gold price is attempting a minor comeback while within a familiar range below the $1,800 mark on Tuesday as investors look to take profits on the latest US Dollar (USD) upsurge ahead of the all-important United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

The United States Dollar is reversing the previous turnaround so far in this Tuesday’s trading as markets reposition themselves, gearing up for the most important event of this week – the US Consumer Price Index slated for release at 13:30 GMT.

Economists expect the headline Consumer Price Index to soften to 7.3% YoY and 0.3% MoM in November. Meanwhile, the Core figures are seen easing to 6.1% and 0.3% on an annualized and monthly basis. Any upside surprise in the Core CPI data could prompt the Federal Reserve policymakers to revise higher their forecasts for the terminal rate, eventually impacting the US central bank’s Dot Plot chart, which will be announced on Wednesday.

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike the key rates by 50 basis points (bps), slowing down its rate hike track amid growing recession fears.

Gold price also finds some fresh buying impetus from the latest research note published by Goldman Sachs, which offered an upbeat outlook going forward. The United States banking giant said that “gold, with its real demand drivers, to outperform the highly volatile bitcoin in the long term.”

Among other news concerning Gold price, Reuters reported that “seizures of smuggled gold in India reached a three-year high this year after the government raised the import duty on the precious metal and international flights resumed following COVID-19 curbs.” The seizure could pressure the global Gold supplies, boding well for Gold bulls.

17.30
+ US CPI

22.00
- $18B 30YT to be sold today | HVPR expected. $15/25

XAUUSD Entry Zones:
R2/R3 or S1/S2 -/+ 6/9/12 RT 23.6 M1 M5 in 30-45 min

XAUUSD @H4S5

1777/1808 crucial

As projected on 02.12.2022: A pattern completed third time at 1777 in last four trading days. 1777 proved a major hurdle in up/down price shifts proving a major price trap just like last times.

U.S. stocks slumped amid downbeat economic warnings from bank chiefs at a time when concerns about the impacts of Federal Reserve policy on growth and corporate earnings are running rampant.

A selloff in tech giants like Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. weighed heavily on the market, with the S&P 500 falling for a fourth straight day. Meta Platforms Inc. sank 6 per cent on a report the European Union is targeting the Facebook owner’s ad model. As traders sought safety, the dollar rose with Treasuries.

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Lisa Shalett said some of the biggest companies may see earnings hit far more than expected next year as economic growth slows and inflation erodes the purchasing power of consumers.

“Markets have never bottomed before a recession has begun,” said David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Global Wealth. “If there is in fact going to be a recession next year, if we are going to see a period of unemployment rising in the country, then we would expect that markets would have to settle down from where they are today over the course of the next several months.”

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 fell 1.6 per cent as of 1:53 p.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9 per cent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2 per cent
The MSCI World index fell 1.4 per cent

Currencies

The euro fell 0.2 per cent to US$1.0468
The British pound fell 0.3 per cent to US$1.2150
The Japanese yen fell 0.2 per cent to 136.98 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin was little changed at US$16,972.68

Ether fell 0.7 per cent to US$1,250.59

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.56 per cent

Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 1.80 per cent

Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.08 per cent

As an ugly memory: on 06.08.2021

XAUUSD had crashed from 1808 to 1790-1777-1756 and on 09.08.2022 (Monday) extended the crash till 1735/1717/1680.

Moral of the story: dont be overconfident: same can get repeated again!

Trade with money management and patience.