Gary Comey / Profile

Back to cash. A very profitable month. I’ll stay back to cash for a few days to allow people to withdraw profit if they wish. Plus I’m in Monaco 🇲🇨 for the Grand Prix so it suits us all. Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends. 🍾

The week is easy enough to interpret if you look at the dollar index overbought at 19 year highs and the equity markets deeply oversold. It is the FEAR part of “fear and greed”. Cash is flowing into the buck and to some extent the Yen.

I expect the markets to remain choppy while we decide is today a bear market rally or a dip in an otherwise cyclical bull market. EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and CADJPY will all be choppy too. I came within 5 pips of closing CADJPY this week but hey that's the game.

GBPUSD average entry is around 1.2485 after five down months, four down weeks and 6 down days before today's bid. I think 1.2485 is easily achievable. Not prepared to give out a TP but I'm thinking a good deal into the 1.25's

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We are out of EURGBP for a small loss. I took it because it may be heavy lifting to get EURGBP through 0.86 though if it closed above the race could be on for 0.87. After such time in the trade I want to apologise for giving you all a few sleepless nights and to thank both my friends and my critics. Friends offer support and critics keep me sharp and resilient. If you scroll down through my feed you will see them both. As I've said before the market has a way of pinning you to your beliefs. Do you believe in your strategy or don't you. I did and thanks for having some faith. I really appreciate it. All strategies have their drawbacks. Nothing is free. Another "go with the trend with a tight stop loss" strategy might incur a dozen small losses and that's fine as long as you know that it works over time. I know that my position size/grid/oscillator strategy works over time and now I know it is robust enough to handle a once in a five or six year event where the trade does not recover for 15 months and the SWAP's get higher and higher. If I have to wait another five years for the next problem then I should be fairly set up for money. Try to imagine where you might be in five years because with or without a plan you will surely arrive at a destination in five years. For my part and being a contrarian I've just added back in some money I withdrew to buy shares in April. Have a nice weekend.

The war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 may be weighing on the Euro but $EURGBP has broken the downtrend for now. Due to the amount of DD we ate with basket 2 break even including SWAPS is about 0.8575. Big day for the Pound.

If/when $EURGBP closes I’ll just stay with $GBPUSD until it closes and then we are back to cash. The health warning is that we ain’t there till we’re there but that’s the “back to cash” plan.

Evening. Some success with $CADJPY recently as further rallies appear to be offered into. The driver and theme for the week is the strong dollar both against the Yen and the Euro. Due to the success of the “November strategy” I think $EURGBP is less of a risk.

The Cable position is also something of a hedge too and deeply oversold. Indeed $GBPUSD and $EURUSD have had something of a breather today as the buck (dollar index) eased off massively overbought conditions.

I don’t think we’re quite there yet on $EURGBP but given my objectives indicated in my earlier countdown clock video it may soon be safe to start growing the cash faster instead of eating DD with the profits from basket 2. Have a nice weekend.

Evening. I will be making a withdrawal of approx $25K (10%) from Blackwave Pacific in the next 48 hours in order to pay a dividend to the holding company Blue Wave which will be used to buy some Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT). I will refund Pacific soon. Blackwavetrader.com

$EURGBP has some bullish momentum going into the French elections this weekend with #macron polling better though we never know. A #Macron win helps us. After making an historical run higher $CADJPY is giving up some of the gains and our short trade is looking a little better.

The Dollar is still very strong with various FED speakers sounding very hawkish though $EURGBP is higher in spite of it. The #ECB is sounding more hawkish too & there's limits on how often we can run the Dollar/Pound higher with each new FED statement we may get more immune.

Average entry of our EURGBP basket before SWAPS has gone from almost 0.87 to just 0.85. I am presuming that our position at 0.8714 will soon be gone as it almost is. At that point I'll change the strategy a little bit to occasionally use a profitable basket to eat the biggest losers of the unprofitable basket before waiting ten months to do it as happened with EURGBP and our "November strategy".

This should mean such a long DD would be statistically less likely as I would be tackling the biggest losers earlier and getting out of DD's sooner. In theory it may reduce growth but only very marginally as most DD's are a few weeks, and also increase safety.

I’m delighted to see construction begins on a new school yard at my former Primary School today. Big thanks to clients and friends. Blackwavetrader.com

Varying views of the Euro are hampering a significant rally though an end to the war would help. A strong #macron performance this weekend would also help. #GBPAUD dropped a lot on Tuesday but the week is finishing better and brings hope for a continued rally next week.

Shame that EURGBP lost momentum but looking at scotiabank and deutschebank they both expect a EURUSD rally to 1.12 and 1.15 which if true will pull EURGBP higher. Certainly the ECB is now awake to inflation which suits us. Need a move towards 0.86 but this week was useful. Looking at some of the messages they could now be summed up as frustration that we are so much closer but people are anxious to get out of EURGBP. That's different to some of the previous messages where people were fearful. So the pendulum is flipping from fear to greed :-)

GBPAUD is a partial hedge but very oversold too and it's been a slower mover. That said I took some short term trades in the Alpine Clients Account to reduce the DD in EURGBP as per the "November strategy". Have a safe weekend. Control your thoughts, control your life.

The technical analysts point to the formation inverted head & shoulders pattern on a EURGBP daily chart which is a bullish pattern. Be that as it may we continue to implement the "November strategy" to eat the DD with proceeds from basket 2 while we wait for the inevitable.

GBPAUD looks deeply oversold daily and today's candle is something of a doji which can signal indecision before a reversal....sometimes!. Either way position size is key.

Finally CADJPY has been amazing and the run is fairly historical. We didn't begin selling it till 95.50's so all good. 4 positions deep in Blackwave Alpine High Risk account. CADJPY D1 RSI 83!

Nicely profitable #GBPCHF trade 💰. I used some to eat more $EURGBP DD & the rest to increase cash. #EURGBP has been trading at the upper end of an other wise down trend but the E.C.B is now becoming helpful to our trade. 0.8480 is the swing lower high we need to close above.

It's been a good enough week, after hitting new lows Sunday night this week saw the E.C.B finally capitulate to inflation and talk about taking actions to control it. Technically we need to see $EURGBP trade above 0.8480 being the previous weekly lower high but the fundamental backdrop is now more in our favour and we could probably do with an easing of geopolitical tensions to help our trade further. With average entry excluding SWAPs around 0.8522, this market is trading above 0.84 as I write. If you are wondering weather I am more relaxed about it I withdrew $10K from Blackwave Pacific to buy more shares of Credit Suisse for the holding company Blue Wave Equity & Investments. That makes 10K shares of CS in total with an average entry around $8 and I'll move on to another company now. I will repay that $10K to Blackwave in the coming months to keep me moving towards my goals as described on my website. GBPCHF is a bit slow and again this could do with an easing of geopolitical tensions but the SWAPs are positive in this case.

Ahead of non farm payrolls $EURGBP avg. entry is at 0.8522 before SWAPs. Avg. entry is roughly 200 pips lower since November. Difficult difficult trade but basket 2 has been doing it’s job though capital growth must suffer in the short term, my game is long term.

In terms of the performance of Basket 2 in February the return has been about 3.5% though it's all been used to eat the $EURGBP DD to continue to improve safety. $EURGBP itself has held up well with both the EURO and the Pound weakening together against the buck.

Since November I've been chipping away at the foundations of the $EURGBP DD even as it fell further. It's not been very noticeable however several positions in the 0.88's are gone. I am working on 0.8745 now and have added more positions in the 0.83's.

By improving average entry we lay the groundwork to benefit significantly from any upswing in $EURGBP. Then I'll be back using two baskets again & the once in a five year event will hopefully be behind us and I can continue on towards my objectives.

Morning. Next week the #RBNZ is expected to raise rates and we head into the weekend with our $GBPNZD trade looking encouraging. Economic data in NZ has been better than expected. $EURGBP may be vulnerable to #Ukraine tensions so a profitable outcome to $GBPNZD would be timely.

A stronger pound and $EURUSD decline pulled our $EURGBP lower taking back some of the recent gains we’ve had. $GBPNZD may be in a topping process but again a stronger pound towards the end of the week. No change to the strategy simply patience required to allow it to work.

Hi all. We've had two fundamental pieces of news to help our EURGBP trade along. 1. The ECB is finally acknowledging inflation concerns by removing any reference about not raising rates from the usual statement. 2. The U.K Prime Minister is having political difficulties which could lead to his resignation and/or damage the electoral prospects of the Tories. Of the two the ECB is by far the biggest factor. Although I am less concerned about the GBPNZD trade due to the improved DD I am still reluctant to add another position unless EURGBP were to clear 0.8460 or even 0.85. Also it may not be necessary. As I said last week "Any half decent retracement will make this trade wildly profitable" so it's a matter of calculated risk vs reward. After a difficult lunch time yesterday where the trade touched multi-year support in the 0.8270's our EURGBP trade has woken up and rallied strongly towards 0.85 with some fundamental news as the wind in it's back. I've carefully added some hedges but I will remain light footed on those in order to avoid swapping one DD for another in the cause of adding too much protection.

Good morning. As you are aware our GBPNZD DD is approximately 12% in the high risk client account. This trade has the potential to kill the high risk account though I feel the other accounts can take the stress. New Zealand has gone into lockdown again for 26 days in order to stamp out a dozen cases of the Omnicron variant of COVID-19. Personally I think it's a mistake both politically, economically and socially but I can also understand there are no easy decisions for the Prime Minister. Anyway essentially this is none of our business because as always our business is with the price. This DD on it's own is simply the cost of trading on a grid pattern and would usually not be concerning. The issue is our long suffering EURGBP positions are continuing to trend lower even as I use profits to close the biggest losers. The November strategy is to use basket 2 to eat the biggest losers in EURGBP and even amongst the stressful trading yesterday I continued to do that. The idea is that "hope" is not a plan after such an extended DD and by closing the biggest EURGBP losers we improve average entry and can take advantage of any EURGBP rally which I can guarantee will happen though I as usual nobody can say when. With the EURGBP trade so extended the trick is to try and stay out of trouble with basket 2 which I have been attempting though I think GBPCAD was difficult and now GBPNZD is difficult. Frankly I cannot trade my way out of EURGBP without taking risks and with the best will in the world I will not time my basket 2 entries perfectly every time. The potential upside here is that if we can hold our nerve this GBPNZD trade has the potential to become very profitable and I will use most of the profit to eat the EURGBP DD. I have been adding a few hedges both in EURGBP and GBPNZD but I am reluctant to stay in the hedges for very long. For example with EURGBP I don't want to find my self stuck in a bunch of sell orders down in the 0.83's only to find later when the price rises that it was the equivalent of buying EURGBP at 0.88. So I have been nipping and tucking and attempting to stay net very long in order to secure a way out of EURGBP. While some short trades are desirable we need to get back to cash and finding myself hugely short EURGBP when we manage to get out of our long trade means we are always as sea so to speak and never get back to shore. In order to protect equity I am unlikely to add further GBPNZD short positions. This market has risen for seven weeks in a row and is very overbought and attempting to nail the very top is too risky. Any half decent retracement will make this trade wildly profitable. In the meantime I will continue to nip and tuck at EURGBP using a combination of hedges both in EURGBP and GBPNZD.